{"id":100173,"date":"2020-10-29T09:04:00","date_gmt":"2020-10-29T06:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/the-ecb-is-meeting-heres-what-analysts-say-to-expect\/"},"modified":"2020-10-29T09:04:00","modified_gmt":"2020-10-29T06:04:00","slug":"the-ecb-is-meeting-heres-what-analysts-say-to-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-ecb-is-meeting-heres-what-analysts-say-to-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  The ECB is meeting \u2014 here\u2019s what analysts say to expect"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a367e5ee8257\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a367e5ee8257\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-ecb-is-meeting-heres-what-analysts-say-to-expect\/#European_Central_Bank_ECB_President_Christine_Lagarde_speaks_during_the_16th_Congress_of_Regions_in_Saint-Ouen_north_of_Paris_France_on_October_19_2020\" >European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during the 16th Congress of Regions in Saint-Ouen, north of Paris, France, on October 19, 2020.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-ecb-is-meeting-heres-what-analysts-say-to-expect\/#Steve_Goldstein\" >Steve Goldstein<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  The ECB is meeting \u2014 here\u2019s what analysts say to expect<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\">\n<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000046516\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n              \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetMediaIllustration\n          inline\n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n          article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        renoImageFormat-\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:66.5625%;\" data-mobile-ratio=\"66.5625%\" data-layout-ratio=\"66.5625%\" data-subtype=\"\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250227?width=140&amp;size=1.5023474178403755 140w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250227?width=540&amp;size=1.5023474178403755 540w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250227?width=620&amp;size=1.5023474178403755 620w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250227?width=700&amp;size=1.5023474178403755 700w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250227?width=860&amp;size=1.5023474178403755 860w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250227?width=1260&amp;size=1.5023474178403755 1260w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 140px) 100px,\n(max-width: 540px) 500px,\n(max-width: 620px) 580px,\n(max-width: 700px) 660px,\n(max-width: 860px) 820px,\n1260px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250227?width=620&amp;size=1.5023474178403755\" data-enlarge=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250227?width=1260&amp;size=1.5023474178403755\" alt=\"\" title=\"European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during the 16th Congress of Regions in...\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\">\n<h4 class=\"wsj-article-caption-content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"European_Central_Bank_ECB_President_Christine_Lagarde_speaks_during_the_16th_Congress_of_Regions_in_Saint-Ouen_north_of_Paris_France_on_October_19_2020\"><\/span>European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during the 16th Congress of Regions in Saint-Ouen, north of Paris, France, on October 19, 2020.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>      <span class=\"wsj-article-credit article__inset__image__caption__credit\" itemprop=\"creator\"><br \/>\n            Agence France-Presse\/Getty Image<br \/>\n          <\/span><br \/>\n  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       The eurozone economy seems destined to contract in the fourth quarter, as a spike in COVID-19 cases has caused governments to once again tighten restrictions on activity. But the European Central Bank is not seen as riding the rescue with more stimulus \u2014 at least not at Thursday\u2019s meeting.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       Analysts say the ECB is more likely to take action at its December meeting. For now, the central bank will present new staff forecasts that will incorporate new developments, some good and some bad, such as the announcement of a European Union recovery fund, a rise in the value of the euro<br \/>\n        EURUSD,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210561242\/realtime\/sampled\" class=\"\"><\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       and a German stimulus package.<\/p>\n<p>The ECB will announce its interest-rate decision at 1:45 p.m. Central European time (8:45 a.m. Eastern), followed by a press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a look at what different analysts are saying ahead of the ECB decision.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Firm<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Comment<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data even\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Goldman Sachs<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      \u201cWe expect ECB officials to mark down their inflation projections slightly in 2020-21 in light of the large downside surprise in August inflation and the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>reciation of the euro, but keep the 2022 inflation projections unchanged. ECB officials are likely to signal that they intend to use the flexibility within the pandemic QE program (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme) to respond to changes in the outlook, but that additional accommodation\u2014most likely in the form of additional asset purchases \u2014will be needed if downside surprises on inflation persist.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      ING<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      \u2018The recent strengthening of the euro could be one driver for such downward revisions. The stronger euro could easily lead to a downward revision of the inflation forecasts by 0.2 percentage points. However, recent ECB research stresses that the impact of exchange rate moves on inflation, as well as growth, depends on the nature of the shock and many structural factors. Interestingly, and in our view highly policy-relevant, the ECB\u2019s research also concludes that the more credibly and effectively monetary policy counteracts external inflationary pressures, the lower the pass-through of exchange rate movements will be. An open door for more stimulus.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data even\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      JPMorgan<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      \u201cOn the PEPP, we already expect a further extension later this year. That the ECB has so far only used \u20ac500 billion of the total envelope of \u20ac1.35 trillion suggests little need to extend it now. But, given that PEPP has in many ways been the tool of choice, any forward-looking comment ECB President Lagarde makes about it will be important. As an aside, we note that the new staff forecast should end any discussion about ending PEPP early.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data odd\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      Evercore ISI<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"1\">\n      \u201cEarly delivery would be out of character for the internal consensus-oriented Lagarde ECB and is not our base case. The most likely outcome is that Lagarde will underscore the Council\u2019s determination to support the recovery against the new virus wave and signal that it will reassess its policy settings in December with the benefit of new projections. But under optimal policy the Council would adjust its policy settings now, and while we are <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>ly skeptical about the Lagarde ECB\u2019s readiness to act pre-emptively, on this occasion we would not rule out it doing so, given how quickly the virus and related economic, fiscal and credit outlook are moving.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"data even\">\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"\">\n      Bank of America<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td align=\"\" valign=\"top\" colspan=\"\">\n      \u201cThe ECB should express its concerns in this week\u2019s meeting, in our view. The COVID-19 situation is fragile, and the cold weather season has barely begun. It is unclear if recent restrictions are enough. Eurozone core inflation is likely to weaken further, in our view, from already historic lows.\u00a0Brexit\u00a0remains unresolved and the recovery fund could be questioned and delayed. We could do with certainty that more ECB support is coming in December. \u201c<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Steve Goldstein\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Steve_Goldstein\"><\/span>Steve Goldstein<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B21004575-02D4-D4B5-4572-DB5B47FC613C%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# The ECB is meeting \u2014 here\u2019s what analysts say to expect &#8221; European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during the 16th Congress of Regions in Saint-Ouen, north of Paris, France, on October 19, 2020. Agence France-Presse\/Getty Image The eurozone economy seems destined to contract in the fourth quarter, as a spike in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100173\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}