{"id":100739,"date":"2020-10-30T00:31:38","date_gmt":"2020-10-29T21:31:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/"},"modified":"2020-10-30T00:31:38","modified_gmt":"2020-10-29T21:31:38","slug":"john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/","title":{"rendered":"#John Horgan&#8217;s majority win in 10 key charts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a24048b2ab83\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a24048b2ab83\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/#These_ridings_swung_from_the_Liberals_to_NDP\" >These ridings swung from the Liberals to NDP<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/#The_five_ridings_where_the_Green_vote_dropped_most\" >The five ridings where the Green vote dropped most<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/#The_vote_shift_in_immigrant_communities\" >The vote shift in immigrant communities<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/#The_vote_shift_in_Indigenous_communities\" >The vote shift in Indigenous communities<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/#The_vote_shift_where_commutes_are_longest\" >The vote shift\u00a0where commutes are longest<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/#The_vote_shift_where_the_fewest_car-commuters_live\" >The vote shift where the fewest car-commuters live<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#John Horgan&#8217;s majority win in 10 key charts<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                            Whatever the mail-in ballots say, the B.C. NDP has won a majority government. Here&#8217;s a look at where the party is making gains\u2014and at whose expense.\n                        <\/div>\n<div>\n                                                                        Pandemic elections sometimes come with big, temporary caveats that bear mentioning before almost anything else. In British Columbia, John Horgan\u2019s New Democrats won a comfortable, predictable majority government on Oct. 24 after a snap election call. Nobody\u00a0believes\u00a0that thousands of uncounted mail-in ballots will change the basic outcome. But pre-election polling predicts those late-comers will lean heavily to the NDP, which might flip a couple of tightly contested ridings. That means any post-election analysis could, after a final count of the votes, shift at the margins.<\/p>\n<p>In any event, Horgan\u2019s win was decisive. The NDP flipped 13 Liberal ridings and swiped another from the Greens. Thanks to a provincial parsing of 2016 federal census data, we know the party dominated districts with high immigrant populations and wiped the floor in the ridings with the longest commutes. These 10 charts, which we\u2019ll update after the final results are released, explain where Horgan\u2019s team made the most gains\u2014in more detail than \u201cin a whole lot of places.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"These_ridings_swung_from_the_Liberals_to_NDP\"><\/span>These ridings swung from the Liberals to NDP<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Where the Liberal vote plummeted most, in three ridings east of Vancouver, the centre-right party might still have the lead before the mail-in count if not for Conservative and independent challengers. Jason Lum, a\u00a0Chilliwack city councillor and chair of the Fraser Valley Regional District who ran as an independent in Chilliwack-Kent, is <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theprogress.com\/news\/jason-lum-describes-independent-campaign-mounted-by-team-as-monumental\/\">running a close third<\/a> after increasing the riding\u2019s \u201cother\u201d vote by more than 25 per cent. The Liberal incumbent,\u00a0Laurie Throness, trails the NDP\u2019s\u00a0Kelli Paddon. In the neighbouring Chilliwack riding, Conservative Diane Janzen (a former Liberal) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theprogress.com\/news\/conservative-candidate-for-chilliwack-sitting-in-third-in-early-results\/\">charged into third place<\/a> in preliminary results. And in Langley-East, another Conservative named Ryan Warawa\u2014the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/british-columbia\/ryan-warawa-son-of-late-veteran-mp-to-run-in-langley-east-1.5740562\">son of the late Tory MP Mark Warawa<\/a>\u2014also managed to increase his party\u2019s vote share.<\/p>\n<p>This chart shows how every major party\u2019s share of the vote shifted between 2017 and 2020 in ridings that flipped from the Liberals to NDP.<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"Liberal &amp;amp;gt; NDP\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/9c6e8946-bd5d-4347-8188-db731f3f1867?src=embed\" width=\"100%\" height=\"720\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_five_ridings_where_the_Green_vote_dropped_most\"><\/span>The five ridings where the Green vote dropped most<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>It\u2019s no secret the NDP wanted to capitalize on strong polling numbers and trounce the Green Party that had, for three years, helped the New Democrats remain in power. And in the five ridings where the Green vote dropped the most from one election to another, the NDP was the clear beneficiary. In Oak Bay-Gordon Head, a Victoria-area riding on Vancouver Island, former NDP MP Murray Rankin made a successful political comeback\u2014and has so far scooped up almost every vote shed by the Greens. The third party\u2019s poor showing also contributed to a possible NDP pickup in the interior riding of Boundary-Similkameen.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"Top 5 Green drops\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/aa59fd8b-cf09-44ea-921d-0a9292e69300?src=embed\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_vote_shift_in_immigrant_communities\"><\/span>The vote shift in immigrant communities<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>In the corners of the province where the fewest residents are immigrants, there was virtually no movement between elections. But the NDP flipped seven ridings where the immigrant population ranged between 10 and 25 per cent, and seven more where immigrants comprised more than one-quarter of residents. Horgan\u2019s team capitalized on Green losses in three suburban Richmond ridings that were close contests in 2017. (Note: these preliminary results do not reflect how immigrant communities voted, but simply illustrates the trend in ridings with the most immigrants.)<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"The immigrant swing\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/c8b14b78-9aad-460e-93b2-1345a9805001?src=embed\" width=\"100%\" height=\"1112\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_vote_shift_in_Indigenous_communities\"><\/span>The vote shift in Indigenous communities<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Maybe New Democrats hope three years of work on reconciliation initiatives might ingratiate them to Indigenous voters. But preliminary results indicate that ridings with the most Indigenous residents did not shift en masse to the party. That might have something to do with the government\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>roval of the controversial Site C hydroelectric dam, or the premier\u2019s handling of Wet\u2019suwet\u2019en opposition to the Coastal GasLink pipeline. Either way, the vast majority of the NDP\u2019s gains appear to be in ridings with the fewest Indigenous residents.<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"The Indigenous vote\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/0baa00a3-7001-4613-9925-83489a3bec88?src=embed\" width=\"100%\" height=\"1135\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_vote_shift_where_commutes_are_longest\"><\/span>The vote shift\u00a0where commutes are longest<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>When city-dwellers think of communities with tiny commutes, they might envision inner-city neighbourhoods where people can walk to work. But short drives to work are commonplace outside of major urban centres, too, where Liberals typically perform well. They\u2019re ahead of the NDP, 10-9, in the ridings with the lowest proportion of 60-minute commutes.\u00a0New Democrats made gains in cities with the longest commutes, including Surrey, Langley and Chilliwack.<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"Longest commutes\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/3f2b9321-2526-4d24-beab-d285e5c606cd?src=embed\" width=\"100%\" height=\"1109\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_vote_shift_where_the_fewest_car-commuters_live\"><\/span>The vote shift where the fewest car-commuters live<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>The election results have so far not turned on how many residents walk, cycle or take public transit to work rather than driving.\u00a0No matter the proportion\u2014under 10 per cent or over 30 per cent\u2014Horgan\u2019s NDP made gains. In the former Liberal stronghold of\u00a0Parksville-Qualicum on Vancouver Island, where 9.32 per cent of residents\u00a0<em>don\u2019t<\/em> drive to work,\u00a0Adam Walker holds a five-point lead over two-term MLA\u00a0Michelle Stilwell. And in\u00a0Vancouver-False Creek, a downtown riding where a stunning\u00a065.68 per cent of residents walk, cycle or jump on transit,\u00a0Brenda Bailey is <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/bc.ctvnews.ca\/ndp-gains-high-profile-liberal-incumbents-mary-polak-jas-johal-sam-sullivan-lose-seats-1.5159811\">up six points<\/a> on former mayor and two-term Liberal Sam Sullivan.<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"Least car commutes\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/cff973c9-ba84-49cd-b2a0-0ef6cfe94dd6?src=embed\" width=\"100%\" height=\"1100\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<span class=\"ctx-article-root\"><!-- --><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/john-horgans-majority-win-in-10-key-charts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#John Horgan&#8217;s majority win in 10 key charts&#8221; Whatever the mail-in ballots say, the B.C. NDP has won a majority government. Here&#8217;s a look at where the party is making gains\u2014and at whose expense. Pandemic elections sometimes come with big, temporary caveats that bear mentioning before almost anything else. In British Columbia, John Horgan\u2019s New&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/HORGAN-DATA-TAYLOR-VAISEY-OCT28-750x422.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[73377,67806,72537],"class_list":["post-100739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-b-c-election-2020","tag-editors-picks","tag-john-horgan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100739\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}