{"id":102115,"date":"2020-10-31T17:17:50","date_gmt":"2020-10-31T14:17:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/the-9-swing-states-the-2020-presidential-election-hinges-on\/"},"modified":"2020-10-31T17:17:50","modified_gmt":"2020-10-31T14:17:50","slug":"the-9-swing-states-the-2020-presidential-election-hinges-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-9-swing-states-the-2020-presidential-election-hinges-on\/","title":{"rendered":"#The 9 swing states the 2020 presidential election hinges on"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#The 9 swing states the 2020 presidential election hinges on<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Nationally, Biden holds a 7.8 percent lead over Trump, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average<\/a>, but in the battleground states that will decide the Electoral College results, his lead is much less secure.<\/p>\n

State-level polls, which were wildly off base in 2016, remain suspect: Republicans \u2014 and many Democrats \u2014 believe that Trump\u2019s voters are refusing to take part in them, or to signal their true intentions if they do.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis race is far closer than some of the punditry .\u2009.\u2009. would suggest,\u201d Biden campaign manager Jen O\u2019Malley Dillon said recently. \u201cIn a number of critical swing states we are fundamentally tied.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a look at the nine battlegrounds that could hand the White House to the Democrats \u2014 or give President Trump a second term.<\/p>\n

\"Arizona\"<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 47% \/ Trump 47%<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2016, Trump won Arizona by 91,000 votes, a relatively comfortable 3.6 percent margin. But the formerly deep-red Grand Canyon State has been slowly adding Democratic voters, giving Democrats hopes for a flip in a state that hasn\u2019t gone blue since 1996.<\/p>\n

Republicans think they have a secret weapon: 145,000 conservatives who sat out the 2016 presidential contest.<\/p>\n

In 2016, 75,000 Arizonans in heavily evangelical, Catholic and Mormon districts cast ballots \u2014 but left the presidential line blank. \u201cThese were right-leaning voters who did not trust Donald Trump,\u201d GOP strategist Sean Noble said.<\/p>\n

Additional Trump-skeptic conservatives gave the Libertarian Party 70,000 more votes in 2016 than it typically receives.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe judiciary is huge for these voters,\u201d Noble explained. \u201cTrump\u2019s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court may win them over.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Wisconsin\"<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 50% \/ Trump 44%<\/strong><\/p>\n

Late deciders gave Trump the edge in his 23,000-vote Wisconsin win in 2016 \u2014 but this year, there are fewer of them to be swayed.<\/p>\n

At least 10 percent of Wisconsin\u2019s electorate remained on the fence as Election Day neared in 2016. Two weeks before the election, up to 40 percent of them planned to leave the presidential line blank, Democratic consultant Paul Maslin found at the time.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the last week, those people made the judgment to go with the new guy who represented change,\u201d Maslin said.<\/p>\n

This year, Wisconsinites \u201chave made a judgment against this incumbent,\u201d Maslin said. \u201cI don\u2019t see the dynamic by which all of a sudden those people change their minds.\u201d<\/p>\n

In an Oct. 28 Marquette Law School poll, 6 percent of Wisconsin voters refused to divulge<\/a> a presidential preference \u2014 and Biden, with 48 percent of the vote, had a 5-point lead over Trump.<\/p>\n

\"Minnesota\"<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 48% \/ Trump 43% <\/strong><\/p>\n

Minnesota, the least-polled swing state in the nation, is the election\u2019s biggest question mark.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo Republican has won a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006,\u201d said John Hinderaker of the Center of the American Experiment, a local think tank.<\/p>\n

But every recent survey has found a pool of 10 to 13 percent of voters claiming to be undecided, making it a tantalizing GOP target.<\/p>\n

Trump lost Minnesota by 1.5 percent \u2014 about 45,000 votes \u2014 in 2016. Now he\u2019s running as the law-and-order candidate in the state where the George Floyd unrest, which caused at least $500 million worth of damage here, began.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s hard to believe that so many people haven\u2019t made a choice about this election,\u201d Hinderaker said. \u201cI think most of these \u2018undecideds\u2019 are Trump voters who just won\u2019t say so.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Nevada\"<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 49% \/ Trump 45%<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cThis should be a layup for Biden,\u201d said GOP strategist Sean Noble. \u201cA state that Hillary Clinton won by more than 2 percent should not be at risk for him.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump lost Nevada by more than 27,000 votes in 2016. Yet the latest statewide poll found a neck-and-neck race<\/a>, with independent voters breaking Trump\u2019s way.<\/p>\n

Coronavirus is a major factor. The pandemic stifled Democrat-affiliated union organizing<\/a> at casinos and resorts, where much of the workforce remains sidelined.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Trump\u2019s campaign has been knocking on voters\u2019 doors for months. The president has held three raucous rallies in rural parts of the state where Republicans dominate \u2014 and where many voters blame Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak<\/a>, not Trump, for COVID-related economic woes.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump may have the better ground operation in 2020, but the virtual campaign may be more important now,\u201d Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. \u201cWe\u2019ll see.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Michigan\"<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 50% \/ Trump 44%<\/strong><\/p>\n

When Trump won Michigan in 2016 by fewer than 11,000 votes, Democrats blamed Clinton\u2019s loss on her failure to motivate the black voters who rallied in huge numbers for Barack Obama. Turnout in urban centers like Detroit, Saginaw and Flint dropped by 12 percent when Obama\u2019s name came off the ballot.<\/p>\n

\u201cBiden needs to get Obama levels of African-American turnout,\u201d said Ron Fournier, a Detroit-based Democratic strategist who foresaw Trump\u2019s surprise 2016 Michigan victory. \u201cWhether they will actually vote is an open question.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another unknown is the effect of Trump\u2019s outreach efforts. An Oct. 16 Marist poll found that 18 percent<\/a> of black voters nationally backed him \u2014 a sharp increase over the 8 percent he won in 2016.<\/p>\n

In a state that was decided by a margin of only 0.2 percent, slimmer than any other, the slightest shift could tip the balance.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 53% \/ Trump 43%<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump lost New Hampshire by just 2,700 votes in 2016, a tiny 0.3 percent margin, after independents \u2014 who outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in the Granite State \u2014 split their vote down the middle.<\/p>\n

This year, unaffiliated voters nationally are breaking for Biden by an 8-point margin, according to the Oct. 28 IBD\/TIPP poll<\/a>. The trend is far more pronounced in New Hampshire: independents in an Oct. 13 UNH survey favored Biden by 27 percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think Trump is done in New Hampshire,\u201d said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. Biden\u2019s lead there in the RealClearPolitics polling average is three points greater than Clinton\u2019s was at this point in 2016.<\/p>\n

But the president is still battling. He sent both son Eric Trump and Vice President Mike Pence to campaign in New Hampshire in recent weeks, and visited Manchester himself on Oct. 25.<\/p>\n

\"North<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 48% \/ Trump 48%<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump bested Clinton by more than 173,000 votes, or 3.6 percent, in 2016 \u2014 and overperformed his pre-election polling average. Polls in late October of 2016 forecast a 3-point Democratic win in North Carolina.<\/p>\n

Since then, the GOP has added more voters to the rolls than the Democrats have, netting almost 84,000 Republicans between March and September of this year. Democrats gained less than half that number.<\/p>\n

New recruits are often more eager than others to turn out and vote \u2014 and here, too, Trump has an advantage. An Oct. 20 ABC News<\/a>\/Washington Post poll of North Carolina found a 15-point intensity gap<\/a> in the president\u2019s favor, with 74 percent of his voters \u201cvery enthusiastic\u201d about supporting him. On Wednesday, 20,000 of those fans turned out for a rally<\/a> in a suburb of Charlotte, NC.<\/p>\n

\u201cSince 1984, the candidate with more enthusiasm wins,\u201d O\u2019Connell said. \u201cWe\u2019ll just have to see if hate is as much of a driver.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Pennsylvania\"<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 50% \/ Trump 46%<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s declining favorability with seniors, who make up 18 percent of the Keystone State\u2019s electorate, could doom him in Pennsylvania, which he won by less than one percentage point in 2016.<\/p>\n

\u201cSeniors more than anyone else are worried about the pandemic,\u201d Bannon said. \u201cBiden is leading with seniors, as Clinton never did\u201d \u2014 by 9 percentage points<\/a> among over-65 Pennsylvanians, an Oct. 15 Morning Consult poll found. Watch the Pittsburgh suburb of Westmoreland County, where Democrats and Republicans are equally divided but 22 percent of voters are seniors, for evidence of their power.<\/p>\n

Statewide, though, the GOP has measurable momentum. Trump\u2019s 44,000-vote win in 2016 fueled a four-year voter registration drive that has shaved at least 136,000 voters<\/a> off the Democrats\u2019 numerical advantage.<\/p>\n

\"Florida\"<\/p>\n

Current poll average: Biden 48% \/ Trump 47%<\/strong><\/p>\n

The president won the Sunshine State by 113,000 votes, a 1.2 percent margin, in 2016. To hold it, he\u2019s made eight campaign stops there since September.<\/p>\n

While Florida Republicans have out-registered the Democrats in the past four years, the 2020 race will be decided by a growing cohort of Latino voters.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany are first- and second-generation Americans who escaped social<\/a>ist or communist regimes in Cuba and Venezuela,\u201d said Republican consultant Ford O\u2019Connell. \u201cWhen Trump talks about fighting socialism, he\u2019s talking to them.\u201d<\/p>\n

They seem to be listening. The St. Pete poll of Oct. 22 pegged Trump\u2019s support<\/a> among Hispanic Floridians at 47 percent.<\/p>\n

\u201cState polls in Florida typically overestimate Democrats by two points,\u201d O\u2019Connell said \u2014 or more. Three days before the 2016 election, Clinton was thought to be ahead in Florida by the same 1.2 percent margin that Trump ultimately won it by. \u201cTrump will eke this out.\u201d\n <\/p><\/div>\n

\n

For forums sites go to Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“#The 9 swing states the 2020 presidential election hinges on” Nationally, Biden holds a 7.8 percent lead over Trump, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, but in the battleground states that will decide the Electoral College results, his lead is much less secure. State-level polls, which were wildly off base in 2016, remain suspect: Republicans…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102116,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/biden-trump-election.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1200","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[77885,70327,4941,991,70473],"class_list":["post-102115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-10-31-20","tag-2020-presidential-election","tag-donald-trump","tag-joe-biden","tag-voting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102115"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102115\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}