{"id":104504,"date":"2020-11-04T07:39:06","date_gmt":"2020-11-04T04:39:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance\/"},"modified":"2020-11-04T07:39:06","modified_gmt":"2020-11-04T04:39:06","slug":"u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"#U.S. Election 2020: Five takeaways as it all hangs in the balance"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a41de85222a1\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a41de85222a1\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance\/#No_landslide_for_Biden\" >No landslide for Biden\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance\/#Its_not_over_by_a_long_shot\" >It\u2019s not over by a long shot<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance\/#Democracy_is_healthy%E2%80%A6_at_least_based_on_this_one_metric\" >Democracy is healthy\u2026 at least, based on this one metric?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance\/#We_can_safely_rename_them_the_Divided_States\" >We can safely rename them the Divided States\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance\/#The_US_electoral_system_is_a_mess\" >The U.S. electoral system is a mess\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#U.S. Election 2020: Five takeaways as it all hangs in the balance<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                                                                        <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We hate to break it to you but we don\u2019t know who won. Late into election night, it was unclear whether Donald Trump will be re-elected, or if Joe Biden will uproot him and become the next president of the United States.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump and Biden both have paths to victory, but a handful of key states\u2014Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio\u2014were still too close to call late on Tuesday night. So we wait. We wait for the results, and we wait for the inevitable disputes and legal challenges thereafter. We try to ignore <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You may be flashing back to four years ago and you may not believe your eyes. We aren\u2019t sure we do either, although you are reading our best attempt to decipher the flood of early results that flashed across our screens Tuesday. The nation\u2019s eyes are strained. And we Canadians didn\u2019t even have to vote.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If your tired eyes weren\u2019t glued to network television on election night, here are a few things you missed, and a few key conclusions\u2014at least the ones we\u2019re prepared to make\u2014about what it all means.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"No_landslide_for_Biden\"><\/span><b>No landslide for Biden\u00a0<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What the early election results show is that the electoral map in 2020 looks pretty similar, in many ways, to the map in 2016. People are set in their partisan ways\u2014despite Democrats\u2019 best attempts to frame this election as a decision on the very soul of American democracy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By early in the night, it was clear that there would be no resounding victory for Joe Biden, as some pundits predicted. Pollsters had noted that several southeastern states could portend a Biden victory if he flipped them\u2014Georgia, North Carolina, Florida. He didn\u2019t even come close.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Biden did win, it would be because of small gains here and there. There were no big upsets; the only states that looked likely to flip, like Arizona, had been identified well in advance as major battlegrounds. Trump support remained strong, especially in rural areas\u2014stronger, perhaps, than most of the commentariat expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It all sounds a little familiar. Pollsters tried to be cautious about their models this time around, after their failure to predict the 2016 result. Dare we suggest they take yet another look at their methodologies?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Its_not_over_by_a_long_shot\"><\/span><b>It\u2019s not over by a long shot<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We permit you a celebratory beverage of your choice, if the results so far encourage you\u2014and a hearty drink if they don\u2019t\u2014but please take it all with a grain of salt. (Especially if you chose tequila.)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even if the election looks to be leaning one way or the other by early Wednesday, a final call won\u2019t come for a while. Nor should it. We won\u2019t be in a position to know which way some key states\u2014cough, cough, Pennsylvania\u2014will swing until a few days after the election, because of when officials are expected to finish processing ballots.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And then, even if one candidate declares victory, the other won\u2019t necessarily be in a position to concede until anticipated legal battles are settled.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump told several rally crowds in the lead-up to the election that if he doesn\u2019t win, that\u2019ll be because of a \u201crigged\u201d election. You can bet that Democrats will be just as motivated to make sure no fraud is at play.\u00a0 Republican and Democrat lawyers\u2014along with civil rights organizations\u2014are preparing for <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/11\/03\/us\/politics\/election-results-contested-disputed.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">legal battles<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> over recounts or contested results, especially where large portions of mail-in ballots were involved. Some estimates suggest these battles could drag into January.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Democracy_is_healthy%E2%80%A6_at_least_based_on_this_one_metric\"><\/span><b>Democracy is healthy\u2026 at least, based on this one metric?<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If one thing\u2019s for sure it\u2019s that Americans wanted to make themselves heard this year, one way or the other. This election looks like it will be historic for voter turnout.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The proportion of eligible voters who showed up to the polls in 2016\u2014about 59 per cent\u2014was already higher than any other U.S. presidential election since the \u201860s. Any higher than 63 per cent turnout this time around and we\u2019re looking at the best participation rate in a hundred years. Another potentially historic trend, per exit polls: the majority of white voters is getting smaller.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The pandemic made for a quieter election day in many parts of the country, but early voting more than made up for that. Upwards of 100 million <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/us\/elections\/early-voting-results.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">early votes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> were cast in total, almost 74 per cent of total votes cast in 2016. Strikingly, before the polls opened on Tuesday, a third of Texas\u2019s entire population of 29 million people was represented in a count of 9.6 million absentee or early ballots.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"We_can_safely_rename_them_the_Divided_States\"><\/span><b>We can safely rename them the Divided States\u00a0<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We know this subheading isn\u2019t very witty, but we are tired. On a positive note, election day itself does not <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ear to have featured the kind of widespread chaos or attempted voter suppression of pessimists\u2019 wildest dreams. It may be too early to tell whether doomsayers are on to anything with predictions of civil war, but for now let us say those concerns feel overblown, too.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No matter which candidate wins, neither will have won by all that much. There is no sign that the United States\u2019 increasingly-polarized political landscape will get any less so. Divisions will play out dramatically during the election fallout, with Trump expected to sow much uncertainty about the result. For people protesting systemic racism in the U.S. who\u2019ve decried Trump\u2019s veiled nods to white supremacist groups, such a close result will be worse than discouraging.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And in the immediate future, rifts will continue to play out as the country struggles to get its public health crisis under control. Compliance with health advice, especially mask-wearing, has become politicized. Already, more than 230,000 Americans have died during the pandemic. As the final results pour in, we hope our neighbours can muster the compassion and civility that will be required to weather the extended tragedy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_US_electoral_system_is_a_mess\"><\/span><b>The U.S. electoral system is a mess\u00a0<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Did you think a list of \u201ctakeaways\u201d would fail to mention how incredibly confusing American elections are? Especially in a close race?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s not that nobody has noticed how convoluted things are, or how difficult for average people to understand. It\u2019s that the system is set up for inertia, not for nimble pivoting to more-coherent <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/09\/14\/909338758\/map-mail-in-voting-rules-by-state\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">mail-in ballot<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> rules. The fact the system is so weirdly inconsistent from state to state\u2014when and how voters can register; when and how ballots can be received; when and how they are counted\u2014prevents Trump\u2019s predictions of widespread fraud from making much sense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then there is the broader, seemingly eternal debate over <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/the-electoral-college.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the existence of the electoral college<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, whose members represent states in <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">actually<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> electing the president. Most states operate on a winner-take-all basis but, again, not all of them.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although America is likely to avoid the nightmare scenario of <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/content\/electoral-college-ties\/\">an electoral college tie<\/a>, will this close shave with a disastrously unclear result finally convince states to opt out of the system? Don\u2019t hold your breath. In 2016, if the U.S. elected presidents based on the popular vote, Trump would not have entered the oval office. Republicans will do everything they can to hang on.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><em>Quality journalism is not free. It\u2019s built on the hard work and dedication of professional reporters, editors and production staff. We understand the pandemic is likely taking a financial toll on you and your family, so we do not make this ask lightly. If you are able to afford it, a <\/em>Maclean\u2019s<em> print subscription costs <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/secure.macleans.ca\/W04BSHPM\">$6 for the first six months<\/a>\u2014and in supporting us, you will help fund quality Canadian journalism in this historic moment.<\/em><br \/>\n<span class=\"ctx-article-root\"><!-- --><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/u-s-election-2020-five-takeaways-as-it-all-hangs-in-the-balance\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#U.S. Election 2020: Five takeaways as it all hangs in the balance&#8221; We hate to break it to you but we don\u2019t know who won. Late into election night, it was unclear whether Donald Trump will be re-elected, or if Joe Biden will uproot him and become the next president of the United States.\u00a0 Trump&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":104505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/US-ELECTION-5-TAKEAWAYS-SMITH-NOV03-750x422.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[67904,67806],"class_list":["post-104504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-2020-u-s-election","tag-editors-picks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104504"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104504\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}