{"id":105128,"date":"2020-11-04T20:59:03","date_gmt":"2020-11-04T17:59:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions\/"},"modified":"2020-11-04T20:59:03","modified_gmt":"2020-11-04T17:59:03","slug":"u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions\/","title":{"rendered":"#U.S. Election 2020: Does Trump&#8217;s Supreme Court threat hold water? And other burning questions."},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a224a4e48e5d\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a224a4e48e5d\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions\/#Is_a_tie_still_possible\" >Is a tie still possible?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions\/#Which_candidate_has_more_paths_to_victory\" >Which candidate has more paths to victory?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions\/#Whither_the_popular_vote\" >Whither the popular vote?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions\/#Will_there_be_recounts\" >Will there be recounts?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions\/#Does_Trumps_Supreme_Court_threat_hold_water\" >Does Trump\u2019s Supreme Court threat hold water?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#U.S. Election 2020: Does Trump&#8217;s Supreme Court threat hold water? And other burning questions.<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                                                                        <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hello and welcome to day two of the United States presidential election.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Day two of\u2026 we don\u2019t know how many. In fact, there\u2019s still rather a lot that we don\u2019t know. Chiefly: How are things shaking out in the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">final battleground states<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that will determine the victor?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For all the uncertainty that will hang over the coming days\u2014especially as incumbent president Donald Trump <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">claims victory and yells fraud<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with millions of votes still to be counted\u2014there are a few questions we <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> answer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_a_tie_still_possible\"><\/span>Is a tie still possible?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The short answer is no, and you can thank Omaha.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is unclear how many heart palpitations the founders of the electoral college have caused over the years for coming up with an even number of electors. (FiveThirtyNine would have been just as catchy a brand for Nate Silver.) But the remote possibility of a 269-269 split felt especially dicey into Tuesday night.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With most states now called\u2014although official results will take more time\u2014we can be confident that a tie is no longer possible.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s because Joe Biden managed out a partial victory in one of only two states whose electors do not operate on a winner-take-all basis. The Associated Press called Nebraska\u2019s second congressional district\u2014that\u2019s the area around Omaha\u2014for Biden at just about 1:30 in the morning on election night, with Trump taking the state\u2019s other four electoral votes. The split means that, mathematically, the closest the result can get is 270-268.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_candidate_has_more_paths_to_victory\"><\/span>Which candidate has more paths to victory?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The results so far suggest a closer race than many would have predicted. With <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">no early landslide<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for Biden, Trump\u2019s wins in expected battlegrounds Florida, Ohio and Texas choked off many of Biden\u2019s paths to the White House.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Still, statistically, more combinations of the remaining states could result in a Biden victory than would point to a Trump re-election.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Biden hangs on to Arizona and ekes out a victory in Georgia, where he is behind but where many urban votes are yet to be counted, he can afford to lose Pennsylvania <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> either Michigan or Wisconsin. If he loses Georgia but wins Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, he can still afford to lose Pennsylvania (thanks to Omaha). If he loses Georgia and Arizona but wins the three former \u201cblue wall\u201d states\u2014Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin\u2014he still wins. All of these scenarios rely on a Biden win in Nevada, which is usually a blue state but where his lead is marginal so far.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump\u2019s path to victory, unlike Biden\u2019s, doesn\u2019t require any states to flip from the 2016 result, though Nevada would be a score. He just needs to retain Georgia, where he is ahead, and the Great Lakes \u201cblue wall\u201d states, where he won in 2016 and remains competitive as final tallies come in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Whither_the_popular_vote\"><\/span>Whither the popular vote?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It remains fundamentally weird that the popular vote doesn\u2019t matter in U.S. presidential elections, even though it does matter for electing other officials\u2014like senators and House representatives.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Still, it\u2019s worth paying attention to, especially because Democrats are performing better on this front than they did in the last election.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two percentage points and almost three million votes across the country. With absentee ballots yet to be counted that are expected to skew heavily toward Biden, the former veep has already hit about the same margin. As of about noon on Wednesday, he has a lead of nearly three million votes and two percentage points.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Will_there_be_recounts\"><\/span>Will there be recounts?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You can bet on it. Some states automatically initiate recounts if the voting margin <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears close. That\u2019s what happened with Florida in the 2000 presidential election. (Lord, it was so long ago.) In other states, candidates are allowed to ask for a recount no matter what the margin was.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s how it could work in a few key battlegrounds:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pennsylvania: Automatic recount when vote margin is less than 0.5 per cent; voters can petition county boards for recounts; voters or candidates can petition courts for recounts.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Michigan: Automatic recount with a margin of less than 2,000 votes; candidates allowed to request recount on the basis of vague \u201cgrievances.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nevada: Candidates can request a recount for any reason.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wisconsin: Candidates can request a recount if the margin is one per cent or less.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even after recounts it is likely that results will be contested. Each state follows a different process, with legislatures or members of the executive branch sometimes able to step in and settle disputes. But across the board, strategists are expecting litigation to work its way through state courts and ultimately to the Supreme Court.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Does_Trumps_Supreme_Court_threat_hold_water\"><\/span>Does Trump\u2019s Supreme Court threat hold water?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In his \u201cvictory speech,\u201d given while votes were still being counted, Trump said he would demand that the U.S. Supreme Court stop \u201call voting\u201d. (It was unclear what, exactly, he was referring to, but it seemed to suggest the counting of absentee ballots and mailed ballots received after election day.) Could that be a thing?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the literal sense, Trump can\u2019t march up to SCOTUS Wednesday afternoon and ask them to unilaterally prevent any more absentee ballots from being tallied. But if lawyers do dispute results in individual counties, and those cases work their way through the courts and appeal processes, then yes, it is possible that the Supreme Court will get final say. Those legal battles could last weeks or months.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Keep in mind that if Biden does win and he wins by a wide enough margin, individual battles over contested counties may not make enough of a difference to overturn that result.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And if it <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> exceedingly close, let\u2019s hold off on presuming what justices will do. Because as politicized as the courts are, there\u2019s still this whole question of, you know, an independent judiciary. Yes, Trump seems to expect SCOTUS to back up his claim to victory no matter what. Yes, the president <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">has<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> said he rushed justice Amy Coney Barrett\u2019s recent confirmation so she would be on-side in post-election disputes. But we just can\u2019t responsibly predict what she will do, or the top court will do, with decisions that could throw the entire nature of American democracy into question.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state where we can likely expect more litigation, the highest state court decided before the election that mailed ballots received up to three days after election day should be counted in the final results, even if they do not have a legible postmark. The Supreme Court, in a 4-4 decision with Barrett abstaining, declined to intervene last week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But just in case, Pennsylvania officials have been segregating late-arriving ballots from the rest of the heap, to be counted separately. Trump\u2019s lawyers will aggressively dispute their validity. SCOTUS may take the issue back up. And its decision may prove a bellwether for the disputes to follow.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><em>Quality journalism is not free. It\u2019s built on the hard work and dedication of professional reporters, editors and production staff. We understand the pandemic is likely taking a financial toll on you and your family, so we do not make this ask lightly. If you are able to afford it, a\u00a0<\/em>Maclean\u2019s<em>\u00a0print subscription costs\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/secure.macleans.ca\/W04BSHPM\">$6 for the first six months<\/a>\u2014and in supporting us, you will help fund quality Canadian journalism in this historic moment.<\/em><br \/>\n<span class=\"ctx-article-root\"><!-- --><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/washington\/u-s-election-2020-does-trumps-supreme-court-threat-hold-water-and-other-burning-questions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#U.S. Election 2020: Does Trump&#8217;s Supreme Court threat hold water? And other burning questions.&#8221; Hello and welcome to day two of the United States presidential election.\u00a0 Day two of\u2026 we don\u2019t know how many. In fact, there\u2019s still rather a lot that we don\u2019t know. Chiefly: How are things shaking out in the final battleground&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/GettyImages-1229458797-750x422.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[67904,4941,67806,71404,76363],"class_list":["post-105128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-2020-u-s-election","tag-donald-trump","tag-editors-picks","tag-supreme-court","tag-u-s-election-2020"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105128\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}