{"id":105371,"date":"2020-11-05T04:07:41","date_gmt":"2020-11-05T01:07:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/"},"modified":"2020-11-05T04:07:41","modified_gmt":"2020-11-05T01:07:41","slug":"all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"#All the ways pollsters and the media were wrong, wrong, wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2645d50b7eb\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2645d50b7eb\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/#THE_HISPANIC_VOTE\" >THE HISPANIC VOTE<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/#COVID_COVID_COVID\" >COVID, COVID, COVID<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/#BLOOMBERGS_%E2%80%98GAME-CHANGING_BILLIONS\" >BLOOMBERG\u2019S \u2018GAME-CHANGING\u2019 BILLIONS<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/#A_%E2%80%98BLUE_WAVE_ADDING_WOMEN_IN_THE_HOUSE\" >A \u2018BLUE WAVE\u2019 ADDING WOMEN IN THE HOUSE<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/#BIDEN_BAILOUTS_FOR_NEW_YORK\" >BIDEN BAILOUTS FOR NEW YORK<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/#TRUMPS_%E2%80%98RACIST_APPEAL\" >TRUMP\u2019S \u2018RACIST\u2019 APPEAL<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#All the ways pollsters and the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a> were wrong, wrong, wrong<\/strong>&#8221;<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/donald-trump-5.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n                        They blew it again. After muffing it spectacularly in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was supposed to cruise to easy victory over Donald Trump, pollsters and the media should be ashamed by how wrong they got this year\u2019s election.<\/p>\n<p>Even after their cross-their-hearts-hope-to-die promises to fix flaws in their methodology \u2014 which always errs in their preferred, liberal direction.<\/p>\n<p>Like Clinton, Joe Biden was supposed to be a sure winner \u2014 possibly in a landslide victory over President Trump. Polling \u201cguru\u201d Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a whopping 89 percent chance of winning. RealClearPolitics\u2019 compilation of polls showed Biden with an average 7.2 percentage-point national lead; some polls had the spread in the double digits at various times. In the top battleground states, Biden averaged a 2.3-point lead, according to RCP.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts talked of a \u201cblue wave\u201d \u2014 with Democrats winning the Senate as well as the White House, and gaining dozens of seats for their House majority. The message, amplified by a feverishly anti-Trump, left-leaning media, was clear: Donald Trump was toast, a one-term president who\u2019d drag the whole party down. Count on it. And it sure is about time.<\/p>\n<p>Ha! It\u2019ll be days, maybe weeks, before the vote counts are finalized, and Biden may win \u2014 but it\u2019s clear the pollsters couldn\u2019t have been more off. Again.<\/p>\n<p>Their predictions weren\u2019t just wrong \u2014 but often wildly so. As of Wednesday morning, Biden had a mere 1.9-percentage point lead over Trump; the prez had a good chance of prevailing overall in electoral votes.<\/p>\n<p>Before Election Day, the ABC-Washington Post poll gave Biden a whopping 17-point lead in Wisconsin; on Wednesday, his lead was 0.6 percent. \u201cThat\u2019s not a mistake. That\u2019s not an error,\u201d noted pollster Frank Luntz. \u201cThat\u2019s polling malpractice, and you have to go to tremendous lengths to be able to get something that wrong so close to the election.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, Quinnipiac had Biden with a five-point margin in Florida and four points in Ohio; Trump wound up ahead in both states \u2014 by three and eight points, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>So much for a Biden blowout.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans also seem likely to retain control of the Senate, with Democrats having picked up just one net seat by Wednesday morning, and several \u201cendangered\u201d GOP seats proving safe. And Dems lost House seats in\u00a0New Mexico, Florida and Oklahoma that they picked up in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>What went wrong with the polling? Some possible explanations stand out.<\/p>\n<p>One of the biggest may be that Trump voters have given up on mainstream media and polling. Yes, it may be \u201cshy voters\u201d in some places it\u2019s considered uncouth to like him, but many others are actively hostile to the institutions that have ignored and insulted them. They show up in droves at Trump rallies and \u201cDonvoys,\u201d but they don\u2019t answer the phone to answer questions.<\/p>\n<p>Will these mistakes make\u00a0pollsters change their ways? Will the media show any humility in the face of again misjudging Trump and his voters? The answer, alas, is probably no.<\/p>\n<p>But they aren\u2019t the only ones with egg on their faces:<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"THE_HISPANIC_VOTE\"><\/span>THE HISPANIC VOTE<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u201cI will say we\u2019ve been sounding the alarm about Dem vulnerabilities w\/ Latinos for a long, long time,\u201d Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AOC\/status\/1323844716010549252\">tweeted Tuesday night<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>So she diagnoses the problem \u2014 does she realize she\u2019s the cause?<\/p>\n<p>Trump won Cubans in Florida not because Biden wasn\u2019t liberal enough, he won because Hispanic immigrants from socialist countries such as Cuba and Venezuela have rejected that ideology.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps she thinks there\u2019s some unt<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ed well of like-minded young Latino voters, but there\u2019s little evidence. Trump increased his share of the Hispanic vote in Florida to nearly 50 percent from 35 percent in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Why? A top Democrat told The Daily Mail that \u201cDefund the police killed us.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Is the politician who blasted New York City for not taking enough money away from the NYPD, saying, \u201cDefunding police means defunding police,\u201d really the best spokesperson to win those voters back?<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"COVID_COVID_COVID\"><\/span>COVID, COVID, COVID<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>It\u2019s ironic that the man who coined \u201cit\u2019s the economy, stupid,\u201d never learned that lesson. James Carville, who predicted we\u2019d all be going to bed at 10 p.m. with Biden as the winner, said this election would be all about Trump and COVID. CNN was wall-to-wall with this wisdom.<\/p>\n<p>Surprise: Exit polls said the top issue for most voters, 34 percent, was the economic recovery. \u00adCOVID-19 was 18 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the electorate saw through the hypocrisy of those like Chris Cuomo, who pounded the table about \u201cirresponsible rallies\u201d even when his own landlord warned him about not wearing a mask.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"BLOOMBERGS_%E2%80%98GAME-CHANGING_BILLIONS\"><\/span>BLOOMBERG\u2019S \u2018GAME-CHANGING\u2019 BILLIONS<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>After his own bid for the nomination collapsed, Mike Bloomberg vowed to spend \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d to help Joe Biden defeat President Trump. Oops!<\/p>\n<p>Democrats could hardly contain their excitement when the billionaire announced a $100 million investment for advertising and ground campaign work in Florida, which he later spread to Texas and Ohio. The Associated Press and Politico both predicted that the donation would shape the campaign and all but guarantee a Democratic win in the key battleground states.<\/p>\n<p>But all three states were called for Trump just hours after the polls closed. Bloomberg isn\u2019t heading for the bread lines soon, but what a colossal waste of money \u2014 and a blow to his \u00adarrogance.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_%E2%80%98BLUE_WAVE_ADDING_WOMEN_IN_THE_HOUSE\"><\/span>A \u2018BLUE WAVE\u2019 ADDING WOMEN IN THE HOUSE<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Analysts confidently predicted that Democrats would add seats to their House majority. Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Election Day even bragged, \u201cTonight, House Democrats are poised to further strengthen our majority \u2014 the biggest, most diverse, most dynamic, women-led House majority in history.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In fact, they lost seats all across the country \u2014 and at least seven new Republican women will join the House in January.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"BIDEN_BAILOUTS_FOR_NEW_YORK\"><\/span>BIDEN BAILOUTS FOR NEW YORK<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>For months, Gov. Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio have put off making hard budget decisions, saying a Joe Biden presidency would deliver a vast federal bailout of New York and other overspending states. Just this week, de Blasio insisted a Biden win means \u201cwe get a major stimulus,\u201d and \u201cthat\u2019s going to turn things around.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Oops! As E.J. McMahon noted in The Post, that also requires a Democratic US Senate \u2014 which the results suggest won\u2019t happen, as supposedly vulnerable Republicans like Maine\u2019s Susan Collins held on. Despite having to defend far more seats this year, and being outspent by hundreds of millions, the GOP may not lose a single net seat.<\/p>\n<p>Cuomo and de Blasio now face an even harder job of balancing their books.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"TRUMPS_%E2%80%98RACIST_APPEAL\"><\/span>TRUMP\u2019S \u2018RACIST\u2019 APPEAL<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u201cRacism is Trump\u2019s brand,\u201d declared New York Times columnist Paul Krugman.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf Trump wins re-election, it\u2019s on white people,\u201d insisted Atlantic writer Jemele Hill.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTrump\u2019s racist messaging seems to have held its strong appeal,\u201d\u00a0FiveThirtyEight\u2019s Clare Malone offered as analysis on election night.<\/p>\n<p>Voters \u201caccepted \u2014 embraced \u2014 his unveiled racism and \u00admisogyny,\u201d agreed Mother Jones\u2019 David Corn.<\/p>\n<p>In reality, exit polls from 2020 compared to 2016 show that the president gained ground across nearly every demographic: up four points with black men and black women,\u00a0up three points among Latino men and Latino women. The only group where he lost ground was white men.<\/p>\n<p>In all, it appears that Trump garnered the highest share of non-white support of any Republican presidential candidate in 60 years \u2014 perhaps because of the unprecedented minority job gains in his pre-pandemic economy.<\/p>\n<p>And that exit poll may understate his gains with Hispanics, given Trump\u2019s showing in Florida, where heavy turnout from the group also helped the Republicans flip two House seats.\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/11\/04\/all-the-ways-pollsters-and-the-media-were-wrong-wrong-wrong\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#All the ways pollsters and the media were wrong, wrong, wrong&#8221; They blew it again. After muffing it spectacularly in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was supposed to cruise to easy victory over Donald Trump, pollsters and the media should be ashamed by how wrong they got this year\u2019s election. Even after their cross-their-hearts-hope-to-die promises to&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105372,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/donald-trump-5.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1200","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[78435,69441,70327,52214,1545,4941,43,991,72246,70468],"class_list":["post-105371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-11-4-20","tag-2020-election","tag-2020-presidential-election","tag-congress","tag-coronavirus","tag-donald-trump","tag-editorial","tag-joe-biden","tag-michael-bloomberg","tag-polls"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}