{"id":122338,"date":"2020-11-29T03:15:00","date_gmt":"2020-11-29T00:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/high-priced-32k-bitcoin-options-show-some-pro-traders-expect-more-upside\/"},"modified":"2020-11-29T03:15:00","modified_gmt":"2020-11-29T00:15:00","slug":"high-priced-32k-bitcoin-options-show-some-pro-traders-expect-more-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/high-priced-32k-bitcoin-options-show-some-pro-traders-expect-more-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"# High priced $32K Bitcoin options show some pro traders expect more upside"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a288b1803590\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a288b1803590\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/high-priced-32k-bitcoin-options-show-some-pro-traders-expect-more-upside\/#Dont_take_options_probabilities_literally\" >Don\u2019t take options probabilities literally<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># High priced $32K Bitcoin options show some pro traders expect more upside <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-5a136f3a>A month ago, one would be hard pressed to find any investor who would have expected a $32,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price for January. At the time, a 140% upside was needed from the $13,300 price on Oct. 30 and this seemed quite far fetched.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, the January $32,000 BTC call (buy) options traded at Deribit for a meager $67, or 0.005 BTC in late October. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-11\/2c52e144-ecce-4cb2-b8f7-4ec6ee1f7a19.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC $32,000 Jan. 2021 call option, in BTC. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Fast forward to now, and the same call option peaked at $705. That\u2019s an almost 10x gain in less than four weeks. Keep in mind that despite the rally to $19,484, an additional 67% upside is still needed to reach $32,000. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-11\/9a752b5e-1015-447f-9eb3-b23a09fde228.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC Jan. 2021 call option market. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Albeit the recent BTC price increase, the implied options probability (delta) currently sits at 11%. That call option price has also increased due to the BTC volatility change as sellers will request a more substantial premium for taking the risk during uncertain markets.<\/p>\n<p>Intense price swings, regardless of the direction, will push volatility higher and any unexpected <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>flow usually drives the indicator upwards.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-11\/fd40935d-7768-4cb2-a7d1-04ceef8a98ac.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin 3-month options implied volatility. Source: Skew<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Take notice of how BTC volatility spiked from 57% on 30 Oct. to 78% this week. This event is notably bullish for call option buyers. Even if the BTC price had stayed the same, the option price would have climbed accordingly.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Dont_take_options_probabilities_literally\"><\/span>Don\u2019t take options probabilities literally<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Options pricing is also heavily dependent on how distant the expiry date is. This same $32,000 call might be deemed worthless two days ahead of maturity. Therefore, traders should not fixate too much on implied options probability (delta).<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-11\/06157cca-d8ff-49ea-8a30-3416eb095574.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC Dec. 2020 call option market. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>By looking at call (buy) options for Dec. 25, an investor might infer that the 26% odds for $20,000 seems dim. After all, an 18% pump in a month seems unreasonable. Traders tend to have a short-term memory, but an 18% increase in 30 days h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ened in 9 out of the past 12 months.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-11\/55841b52-d033-46cd-b90d-c5b54b47ee9c.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin price (USD) at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The last time an 18% or even larger monthly pump happened was not so long ago. On Aug. 23 Bitcoin closed at $11,645, which was a 22% increase from the previous month.<\/p>\n<p>Traders and investors should consider buying call options with longer expiry dates. Those who were brave enough to bet on the 150% BTC price increase a month ago are extremely satisfied with the results. <\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>autho<\/em><em>r<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/high-priced-32k-bitcoin-options-show-some-pro-traders-expect-more-upside\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# High priced $32K Bitcoin options show some pro traders expect more upside &#8221; A month ago, one would be hard pressed to find any investor who would have expected a $32,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price for January. At the time, a 140% upside was needed from the $13,300 price on Oct. 30 and this seemed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":122339,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-11\/08d6dc75-093c-4c04-b996-d17b9fcadfbb.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74972,81209,74937,75845,74863,75012,74939,73785],"class_list":["post-122338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-futures","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cme","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-derivatives","tag-market-analysis","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=122338"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122338\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/122339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=122338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=122338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=122338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}