{"id":123230,"date":"2020-11-30T21:00:02","date_gmt":"2020-11-30T18:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/"},"modified":"2020-11-30T21:00:02","modified_gmt":"2020-11-30T18:00:02","slug":"maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/","title":{"rendered":"#Maths has revealed how the COVID-19 vaccine should be distributed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2fcdba20fb2\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2fcdba20fb2\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/#What_we_took_into_account\" >What we took into account<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/#1_Medical_centers_need_to_be_big_enough\" >1. Medical centers need to be big enough<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/#2_Vaccines_need_to_be_shipped_between_medical_centers\" >2. Vaccines need to be shipped between medical centers<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/#3_Vaccine_packs_need_to_be_the_right_size\" >3. Vaccine packs need to be the right size<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/#This_is_relevant_to_all_Australia\" >This is relevant to all Australia<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#Maths has revealed how the COVID-19 vaccine should be distributed<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                            How well we distribute and administer a COVID-19 vaccine will have massive health, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">social<\/a>, and economic ramifications. So attention is turning to vaccine supply chains and logistics.<\/p>\n<p>Designing how best to vaccinate billions of people worldwide is complex. This is particularly so for large countries, such as Australia, where <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/creating-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-only-the-first-step-itll-take-years-to-manufacture-and-distribute-144352\">distributing vaccines<\/a> to rural and remote areas is needed.<\/p>\n<p>Despite numerous past pandemics and epidemics, very few studies globally have tackled the problem of designing and building an efficient vaccine distribution network. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10729-012-9199-6.pdf\">Existing<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1366554520306189\">studies<\/a> have also not fully considered all factors affecting vaccine distribution.<\/p>\n<p>So our team designed a mathematical model to test different scenarios for COVID-19 vaccine distribution, which we have submitted for publication.<\/p>\n<p><em>[Read:\u00a0<span dir=\"auto\">Why this security engineer loves working in infosec<\/span>]<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_we_took_into_account\"><\/span>What we took into account<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Our model looked at different ways to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine to 6.9 million Victorians, based on the number of residents <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/people\/population\/population-projections-australia\/latest-release\">predicted in 2021<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>We modeled this using distribution via the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/discover.data.vic.gov.au\/dataset\/hospital-locations-spatial\">state\u2019s 325 medical centers<\/a>, which can be everything from big-city hospitals to small medical centers in regional areas.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center zoomable\">\n<figure class=\"post-image post-mediaBleed aligncenter\"><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/371419\/original\/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" alt=\"Map of medical centres in Victoria\" width=\"600\" height=\"441\" class=\" lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/371419\/original\/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" data-lazy=\"true\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/371419\/original\/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=441&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/371419\/original\/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=441&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/371419\/original\/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=441&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/371419\/original\/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=554&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/371419\/original\/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=554&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/371419\/original\/file-20201126-17-p9fy0a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=554&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\"\/><\/a><figcaption><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/syndication\/2020\/11\/30\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/#\" data-url=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fthenextweb.com%2Fsyndication%2F2020%2F11%2F30%2Fmaths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed%2F&amp;via=thenextweb&amp;related=thenextweb&amp;text=Check out this picture on: This map shows the location and capacity of the 325 medical centers in Victoria, using data from Victoria\u2019s health department. Author provided\" data-title=\"Share This map shows the location and capacity of the 325 medical centers in Victoria, using data from Victoria\u2019s health department. Author provided on Twitter\" data-width=\"685\" data-height=\"500\" class=\"post-image-share popitup\" title=\"Share This map shows the location and capacity of the 325 medical centers in Victoria, using data from Victoria\u2019s health department. Author provided on Twitter\"><i class=\"icon icon--inline icon--twitter--dark\"\/><\/a>This map shows the location and capacity of the 325 medical centers in Victoria, using data from Victoria\u2019s health department. Author provided<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p>We assumed most vaccine distribution would be by road and enough <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/keeping-coronavirus-vaccines-at-subzero-temperatures-during-distribution-will-be-hard-but-likely-key-to-ending-pandemic-146071\">refrigerated vehicles<\/a> would be available.<\/p>\n<p>We also factored into our model that certain sections of the community are at increased risk of exposure (for instance, city dwellers) and others are more susceptible to infection (for instance, aged-care residents and health-care workers). These people are not uniformly distributed around the state, affecting vaccine distribution logistics.<\/p>\n<p>We then tested different scenarios to see how long vaccination would take.<\/p>\n<p>Our research shows we need three key factors for success.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Medical_centers_need_to_be_big_enough\"><\/span>1. Medical centers need to be big enough<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>We calculated that if the capacity of the 325 medical centers is large enough, and if enough vaccine is available, the entire population of Victoria can be vaccinated within 60 days.<\/p>\n<p>By capacity, we mean the maximum number of vaccine doses each medical center can administer. And this capacity depends on a range of factors including centers\u2019 physical size and having enough staff to administer vaccines.<\/p>\n<p>This time frame or \u201ctarget horizon\u201d is the total number of days to vaccinate the population of Victoria. Although we have calculated this is possible within 60 days, the state or federal government will actually set this target.<\/p>\n<p>To vaccinate all Victorians in 60 days, we calculated we would need a minimum of roughly 9,500 vaccine packs with 12 vaccines per pack, every day. This assumes one shot per person and adequate vaccines are available. A limited supply or a disruption to supplies might increase the administration period beyond 60 days.<\/p>\n<p>If medical centers run at reduced capacity or existing capacity is not enough, this also increases the time taken to vaccinate. Conversely, if the aim is to vaccinate Victorians in under 60 days, our model suggests we need to boost our capacity to vaccinate.<\/p>\n<p>This could be by using mobile vaccination units or hiring extra staff.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Vaccines_need_to_be_shipped_between_medical_centers\"><\/span>2. Vaccines need to be shipped between medical centers<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>We also show the importance of transporting vaccines between medical centers, known as transshipment. This allows medical centers short on vaccines to obtain doses from the nearest medical centers with extra supply.<\/p>\n<p>Transshipment is also crucial when it comes to vaccinating the most vulnerable people. That\u2019s because we can transfer vaccines from medical centers serving less-vulnerable populations to those with more residents in higher priority groups. Transshipment also allows us to transfer vaccines from areas with less exposure to areas of higher exposure. And it allows vaccines to reach remote areas.<\/p>\n<p>However, transshipment places an extra burden on road transport networks.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Vaccine_packs_need_to_be_the_right_size\"><\/span>3. Vaccine packs need to be the right size<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>We also show it is important to get the vaccine pack size right. This seemingly minor detail had a significant effect on the overall period of vaccine administration.<\/p>\n<p>We considered pack sizes that contain 5, 12, 20, 30, and 50 vaccines. A larger pack size significantly increases the need for transshipment between medical centers. That\u2019s because larger packs would need to be broken up into smaller portions, then distributed to multiple medical centers.<\/p>\n<p>We suggest governmental agencies carefully evaluate vaccine pack size when contracting and negotiating with vaccine manufacturers.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"This_is_relevant_to_all_Australia\"><\/span>This is relevant to all Australia<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>While we used Victoria as a case study, we can <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ly our model to other states and territories.<\/p>\n<p>In particular, the importance of pack size, transshipment between medical centers, and considering the extra capacity to vaccinate in a shorter amount of time will apply in every context.<\/p>\n<p>Certainly, the results for other states and territories will depend on their number of available medical centers, population size, and population distribution.<\/p>\n<p>Our model helps decision-makers strike a balance between the cost of building extra capacity to try to achieve population vaccination in a given timescale or accepting a less costly approach that takes more time.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" class=\" lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/150544\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><em>This article by\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/olga-kokshagina-550076\">Olga Kokshagina<\/a>, Researcher \u2013 Innovation &amp; Entrepreneurship, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/rmit-university-1063\">RMIT University<\/a>; <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/babak-abbasi-1181877\">Babak Abbasi<\/a>, Professor, Head of Department, Information Systems, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/rmit-university-1063\">RMIT University<\/a>; <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/masih-fadaki-1181879\">Masih Fadaki<\/a>, Lecturer, Supply Chain Management, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/rmit-university-1063\">RMIT University<\/a>; <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/naima-saeed-1181881\">Naima Saeed<\/a>, Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-agder-3690\">University of Agder<\/a>, and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/prem-chhetri-729750\">Prem Chhetri<\/a>, Professor, Director, Global Supply Chain and Logistics Research Priority Area, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/rmit-university-1063\">RMIT University<\/a>\u00a0 is republished from <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/we-modelled-how-a-covid-vaccine-roll-out-would-work-heres-what-we-found-150544\">original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-article-read-next\">\n    <b>Read next:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>        AI reveals vast racial inequities in NYC homeownership    <\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more like this article, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/technology\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Technology category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/syndication\/2020\/11\/30\/maths-has-revealed-how-the-covid-19-vaccine-should-be-distributed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#Maths has revealed how the COVID-19 vaccine should be distributed&#8221; How well we distribute and administer a COVID-19 vaccine will have massive health, social, and economic ramifications. So attention is turning to vaccine supply chains and logistics. Designing how best to vaccinate billions of people worldwide is complex. This is particularly so for large countries,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":123231,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/tnw?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2020\/11\/1-copy-8.jpg&signature=d834533289160cba1b0550d69a89fa75","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[75568,1356,71612,26367,74145],"class_list":["post-123230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-supply-chain","tag-covid-19","tag-insights","tag-mathematics","tag-vaccine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=123230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123230\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/123231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=123230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=123230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=123230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}