{"id":126088,"date":"2020-12-04T01:27:48","date_gmt":"2020-12-03T22:27:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/new-dynamic-covid-19-tracking-system-aims-to-help-localities-predict-where-virus-is-headed-and-whether-its-accelerating\/"},"modified":"2020-12-04T01:27:48","modified_gmt":"2020-12-03T22:27:48","slug":"new-dynamic-covid-19-tracking-system-aims-to-help-localities-predict-where-virus-is-headed-and-whether-its-accelerating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/new-dynamic-covid-19-tracking-system-aims-to-help-localities-predict-where-virus-is-headed-and-whether-its-accelerating\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  New dynamic COVID-19 tracking system aims to help localities predict where virus is headed \u2014 and whether it\u2019s accelerating"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a27d27720919\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a27d27720919\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/new-dynamic-covid-19-tracking-system-aims-to-help-localities-predict-where-virus-is-headed-and-whether-its-accelerating\/#%E2%80%98We_can_inform_leaders_where_the_outbreak_is_occurring_before_it_shows_up_in_overcrowded_hospitals_and_morgues_says_lead_co-author\" >\u2018We can inform leaders where the outbreak is occurring before it shows up in overcrowded hospitals and morgues,\u2019 says lead co-author<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/new-dynamic-covid-19-tracking-system-aims-to-help-localities-predict-where-virus-is-headed-and-whether-its-accelerating\/#Ciara_Linnane\" >Ciara Linnane<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  New dynamic COVID-19 tracking system aims to help localities predict where virus is headed \u2014 and whether it\u2019s accelerating<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%98We_can_inform_leaders_where_the_outbreak_is_occurring_before_it_shows_up_in_overcrowded_hospitals_and_morgues_says_lead_co-author\"><\/span>\n  \u2018We can inform leaders where the outbreak is occurring before it shows up in overcrowded hospitals and morgues,\u2019 says lead co-author<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"03A831C4-3591-11EB-AAE3-B1D695516FE2\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       A group of academics and health experts are launching a dynamic COVID-19 tracking system that will help counties, states and metropolitan areas predict where the virus is headed, when it will arrive and whether spread is accelerating. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cNow we can easily identify outbreaks at their beginning,\u201d said Lori Post, director of the Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. \u201cYou want to know where the pandemic is accelerating, how fast it is moving and how that compares to prior weeks.\u201d <\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       Post, as co-lead author and investigator, worked with co-lead author James Oehmke of Northwestern University and Charles Moss of the University of Florida for the last fourth months to develop <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/sites.northwestern.edu\/covidglobalsurveillance\/\" class=\"icon none\">the new system,<\/a> which is the first to dynamically track the virus. Other systems are static and track infections, deaths and hospitalizations without the ability to predict where the illness is headed. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe can inform leaders where the outbreak is occurring before it shows up in overcrowded hospitals and morgues,\u201d Post said.<\/p>\n<p>The system was to be rolled out in 195 countries on Thursday. It will track the virus in U.S. states and metropolitan areas, as well as Canadian provinces. The U.S. leads the world by number of COVID-19 cases, at 13.9 million, and deaths, at 274,121, according to <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html\" class=\"icon none\">data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.<\/a> That\u2019s about a fifth of the global case tally of 64.8 million and global death toll of 1.5 million. <\/p>\n<p>Canada has had 395,544 confirmed cases and 12,373 deaths, the data show.<\/p>\n<p><strong>See now:<\/strong>U.S. posts record one-day death toll \u2014 before the predicted post-Thanksgiving surge<\/p>\n<p>Northwestern is hosting a dashboard that is open to anyone and will offer new metrics, along with traditional ones. Each country\u2019s dashboard will be monitored in U.S. embassies to help inform policy leaders. The project is being named GASSP, for GlobAl Sars-Co2 Surveillance Project.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSpeed itself doesn\u2019t tell us enough,\u201d Post said. \u201cWe have to know the acceleration and how that compares week to week \u2014 jerk \u2014 to be prepared for what\u2019s coming in the pandemic.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>See also:<\/strong>What we still don\u2019t know about COVID vaccines after the U.K.\u2019s emergency-use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech candidate<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>Jerk \u2014 a physics term that measures increasing acceleration that may help predict the stress the pandemic will place on health-care systems \u2014 is one of the new metrics.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cJerk can help turn a reactive policy response into a proactive policy response,\u201d said Oehmke, adjunct professor of emergency medicine at Northwestern. <\/p>\n<p>Then there\u2019s persistence \u2014 an echo effect forward used in financial markets \u2014 that measures the likelihood that people who presented last week as positive will infect others who will present as positive next week. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor example, relative to other countries, the Netherlands is a small country and doesn\u2019t have the same case load as some larger countries like Spain,\u201d Post said. \u201cBut they have alarming signs right now \u2014 increased speed, acceleration and positive jerk, and that means potential for explosive growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The system has already found that Hawaii, Vermont and Maine have the smallest rates of new daily infections measured per 100,000 residents, but with speed accelerating and persistence positive, they need to follow safety measures to prevent the virus\u2019s escalating again. That means frequent hand washing, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">social<\/a> distancing and wearing face masks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>See:<\/strong>The CDC is now urging Americans to get tested if they must <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/trip-and-travel\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"Trip &amp; Travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">travel<\/a> for Christmas or Hanukkah \u2014 here\u2019s how<\/p>\n<p>It found that Wisconsin is likely to see its outbreak continue to explode. Wisconsin and California have similar daily case numbers, and California has nearly seven times the population of Wisconsin.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWisconsin is disproportionately affected by the pandemic, and yet it was California that declared an emergency stay-at-home order,\u201d the authors wrote.<\/p>\n<p>It found that Wyoming has several indicators over the past three weeks suggesting its outbreak is going to get much worse. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Read on: <\/strong>Los Angeles mayor tells residents to \u2018cancel everything\u2019 as city nears \u2018devastating tipping point\u2019<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"\n              inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetCommentingPromo\n            \n            inline\n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetCommentingPromo\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Ciara Linnane\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Ciara_Linnane\"><\/span>Ciara Linnane<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B03A831C4-3591-11EB-AAE3-B1D695516FE2%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# New dynamic COVID-19 tracking system aims to help localities predict where virus is headed \u2014 and whether it\u2019s accelerating &#8221; \u2018We can inform leaders where the outbreak is occurring before it shows up in overcrowded hospitals and morgues,\u2019 says lead co-author A group of academics and health experts are launching a dynamic COVID-19 tracking&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":126089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-126088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126088\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/126089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}