{"id":127737,"date":"2020-12-07T05:07:16","date_gmt":"2020-12-07T02:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/338canada-the-federal-liberals-hold-steady-jason-kenney-sinks\/"},"modified":"2020-12-07T05:07:16","modified_gmt":"2020-12-07T02:07:16","slug":"338canada-the-federal-liberals-hold-steady-jason-kenney-sinks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/338canada-the-federal-liberals-hold-steady-jason-kenney-sinks\/","title":{"rendered":"#338Canada: The federal Liberals hold steady. Jason Kenney sinks."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;<strong>#338Canada: The federal Liberals hold steady. Jason Kenney sinks.<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                            Philippe J. Fournier:  While Canadians still mostly <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>rove of their political leaders, a spring federal election may hinge on a smooth vaccine rollout\n                        <\/div>\n<div>\n                                                                        Although many Canadians will be restricted to visit loved ones during the upcoming Christmas\/Holiday break, reports from the scientific community indicate the end of the pandemic might come sooner rather than later. In a recent column in\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-03370-6\"><i>Nature<\/i><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a> writer Asher Mullard stated that \u201cCounting up all vaccine deals per capita, Canada leads the pack, with nearly nine doses per person\u201d, and added a quote from Dr. Andrea Taylor of Duke University\u2019s Global Health Institute: \u201cCanada has done exactly what we would expect a high-income country to do, and they\u2019ve done the right thing by their country.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While there remains uncertainty on the timing of this mass vaccination program and how it will unfold in Canada throughout 2021, such <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> should help many Canadians feel some cautious optimism for 2021.<\/p>\n<p>As for Canadians\u2019 impressions of their governments\u2019 handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, several polls published in the past weeks indicates there is still <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> strong support for Canada\u2019s elected officials, with a few notable regional exceptions.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">In its latest weekly report, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/leger360.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Legers-North-American-Tracker-November-30th-2020-min.pdf\"><b>L\u00e9ger<\/b><\/a> measures satisfaction towards the federal government at 65 per cent nationally, including 68 and 67 per cent in Quebec and Ontario, respectively. However, it was the Alberta numbers that gave us pause: 46 per cent of Albertans approve of the federal government\u2019s handling of the pandemic, while only 30 per cent of Alberta respondents approve of their own provincial government. While the poll\u2019s Alberta sample was modest and thus had higher uncertainty, Jason Kenney and the UCP losing support has become a trend over the past weeks and was detected by other pollsters as well. Nationally, 60 per cent of Canadians approve of their provincial government\u2019s handling of the pandemic, down 20 points since July according to L\u00e9ger.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">The <b>Angus Reid Institute<\/b> also released its latest approval numbers last week and they showed mostly similar trends. On the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/angusreid.org\/federal-politics-finance-december\/\">federal front<\/a>, ARI measures that a majority of Canadians (56 per cent) still approve of the federal government, although that figure has dropped 10 points since late summer. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/angusreid.org\/premier-approval-december2020\/\">Provincially<\/a>, ARI also sees trouble on the horizon for Jason Kenny: only 40 per cent approval from Albertans, the second lowest among the nine provinces included in the report.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">Finally, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/en-ca\/news-polls\/rising-canadian-COVID-19-caseload-does-little-to-diminish-liberal-lead-over-tories-nationally\"><b>Ipsos<\/b><\/a> also has 60 per cent of Canadians approving of Justin Trudeau\u2019s handling of the pandemic, a stable level since October. As for premier approvals, Ipsos\u2019s numbers confirm the current trends: John Horgan in British Colombia (78 per cent), Fran\u00e7ois Legault in Quebec (75 per cent) and Doug Ford in Ontario (69 per cent) all receive mostly positive grades from their constituents, while Jason Kenney in Alberta lags far behind with only 37 per cent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We add these polls and many others to the 338Canada federal model and present today this projection update. As usual, all federal polls may be found on <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/polls.htm\">this page<\/a>. For details on methodology, visit <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.blogspot.com\/2018\/11\/welcome-to-338canada.html#metho\">this page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Nationally, the Liberals get an average support of 35 per cent and maintain a modest, but stable lead over the Conservatives, which stand at 31 per cent. The NDP currently sits at 18 per cent, marginally higher than its October 2019 election result:<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/#vote\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2020-12-06-vote.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"18\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>[On the graph above, the coloured bars represent the projection\u2019s 95 per cent confidence intervals and the black dots, the 2019 federal election results.]<\/p>\n<p>Notice on the graph above, however, that each party\u2019s 2019 result is well within the projection confidence intervals. Aside from the Liberals\u2019 spring and summer pandemic bump, federal numbers have barely moved all year:<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/#vote\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2020-12-06-votetime.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"18\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As is often the case, the regional numbers give a better picture of where the main parties stand:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">In <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/atl.htm\">Atlantic Canada<\/a>, the Liberals enjoy a massive average lead of 20 points over the Conservatives and would, according to these numbers, probably suffer no loss of seats in the region (the LPC won 26 of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada in 2019).<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">In <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/quebec.htm\">Quebec<\/a>, polls do measure a tight race for first place between the Liberals and the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois, with an edge going to the LPC. However, since Liberal support in Quebec is more concentrated in urban Montreal and Quebec City, the Bloc could still compete to win the most seats in the province. The Conservatives are stuck at 16 per cent in the province, a level matching their 2019 results in Quebec.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">In <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario.htm\">Ontario<\/a>, the Liberals lead with an average of 40 per cent to the Conservatives\u2019 33 per cent. The Liberals are projected leading in over 70 of the province\u2019s 121 federal seats (they won 79 Ontario seats in 2019).<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">In <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/prairies.htm\">Manitoba, Saskatchewan<\/a> and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/alberta.htm\">Alberta<\/a>, the Conservatives are projected leading in virtually all regions except in and around Winnipeg.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">Finally, British Columbia continues to be a mystery for federal pollsters. In the past week alone, we have seen polls showing the Liberals ahead by double digits (<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/leger360.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Legers-North-American-Tracker-November-30th-2020-min.pdf\">L\u00e9ger<\/a>), all three main parties in a virtual tie (<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/angusreid.org\/federal-politics-finance-december\/\">Angus Reid<\/a>), and the NPD in the outright lead (Nanos Research, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanos.co\/dataportal\/nanos-data-portals-political-tracking\/\">paywalled<\/a>). The current 338Canada average has the Liberals ahead by four points in the province over the NDP\u2014a gap much smaller than the projection\u2019s confidence intervals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Seat-wise, the Liberals remain in front with an average of 164 seats, just under the 170-seat threshold for a majority in the House of Commons. The Conservatives stand at 113 seats on average:<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/#seats\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2020-12-06-seats.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"18\"\/><\/a><br \/>The NDP\u2019s projection currently sits at 31 seats, the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois 27 seats and the Greens, 2 seats. Again, these projections closely align with last year\u2019s federal election results.<\/p>\n<p>Assuredly, the focus of early 2021 will centre on how, and how soon, Canadians will be administered the COVID-19 vaccines. Ottawa may have already purchased more than its share of vaccines, but the logistics of this mass vaccination\u2014and to what extent provincial and federal authorities will coordinate their operations\u2014will be a test for many elected officials in this country.<\/p>\n<p>If vaccinations do begin early in 2021 (we should assume that health workers and senior citizens will be first in line), and the rollout goes mostly smoothly throughout winter and into the spring, the Liberals could be tempted to try to take advantage of this unique situation and trigger a spring election to regain a majority\u2014perhaps even before the ominously historic budget is tabled by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.<\/p>\n<p>On the other end, should there be massive delays in the rollout and increasing bickering between provinces and the federal government, it could be the opposition parties that smell Liberal blood in the waters. Nevertheless, while the Conservatives would probably get most Bloc MPs on board for a snap election, it would once again fall on Jagmeet Singh\u2019s party to rescue the Liberals on a confidence motion\u2014unless Justin Trudeau decides to push all his chips in the pot for one last kick at the can?<\/p>\n<p>And therefore how efficient the vaccine rollout goes could very well decide the fate of this 43rd federal parliament.\u00a0We here at 338 HQ will continue to track all the numbers to try to accurately paint the political landscape in Canada. Even though the second wave is hitting the country much harder than did the first, there should be optimism in the air for 2021. It will not be boring for sure. Stay safe out there, dear readers.<\/p>\n<p>Follow <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/338Canada\">338Canada on Twitter<\/a>.<br \/>\n<span class=\"ctx-article-root\"><!-- --><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/ottawa\/338canada-the-federal-liberals-hold-steady-jason-kenney-sinks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#338Canada: The federal Liberals hold steady. Jason Kenney sinks.&#8221; Philippe J. Fournier: While Canadians still mostly approve of their political leaders, a spring federal election may hinge on a smooth vaccine rollout Although many Canadians will be restricted to visit loved ones during the upcoming Christmas\/Holiday break, reports from the scientific community indicate the end&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":127738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/CP15434237-750x422.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[68722,67806,68723,74978,67817],"class_list":["post-127737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-338canada","tag-editors-picks","tag-federal-election","tag-jason-kenney","tag-liberals"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=127737"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127737\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/127738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=127737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=127737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=127737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}