{"id":130380,"date":"2020-12-10T17:59:12","date_gmt":"2020-12-10T14:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/338canada-doug-ford-remains-solidly-in-command\/"},"modified":"2020-12-10T17:59:12","modified_gmt":"2020-12-10T14:59:12","slug":"338canada-doug-ford-remains-solidly-in-command","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/338canada-doug-ford-remains-solidly-in-command\/","title":{"rendered":"#338Canada: Doug Ford remains solidly in command"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#338Canada: Doug Ford remains solidly in command<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Philippe J. Fournier: A new Mainstreet\/338Canada poll shows the PC Party opening a huge lead in every region of the province over the second-place NDP\n <\/div>\n
\n Opinion polls in Canada from the past months\u00a0have shown that Canadians are general<\/a>ly (although not unanimously) satisfied with their elected officials\u2019 handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. While it is true that some of these numbers have fallen in recent weeks with the second wave of the virus hitting harder than the first wave did (especially in the Prairie provinces), as a general rule, premiers in Canada have for the most part increased their own support with their handling of the pandemic so far.<\/p>\n

In fact, three provincial elections have taken place in the country since the COVID-19 pandemic reached Canada\u2019s borders early last spring. In all three elections, the incumbent parties won decisive victories and secured majorities in their respectful legislature:\u00a0Blaine Higgs\u2019 PC in New Brunswick<\/a>,\u00a0John Horgan\u2019s NDP in British Columbia<\/a>, and\u00a0Scott Moe\u2019s Saskatchewan Party in Saskatchewan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In Ontario, although voting intentions showed a close three-way race back in February and March just as the Ontario Liberal Party was electing Steven Del Duca as its new leader, numbers throughout the summer and fall 2020 showed two distinct trends: Doug Ford\u2019s PC re-gained its lost support, while both the Ontario Liberals and NDP were slipping.<\/p>\n

It app<\/a>ears these trends have continued, according to a new exclusive poll from Mainstreet Research commissioned by 338Canada.<\/p>\n

In this new poll, Doug Ford\u2019s Progressive Conservative Party grows its lead among decided voters to a stunning 46 per cent, more than 20 points ahead of second-place Ontario NDP at 23 per cent. The Ontario Liberals, after enjoying a modest new-leader-bump in the spring, sit in third place with 20 per cent support\u2014a level of support similar to its disastrous 2018 election result.\u00a0
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These province-wide levels of support may certainly seem impressive forFord\u2019s\u00a0 PC, but it is by breaking down these numbers by regions and demographics that we can really capture the scope and depth of this lead. While we must use caution with a poll\u2019s subsamples because of higher margin of error, the PC is nonetheless measured ahead in every region of Ontario by double-digits<\/i>, including a 16 point-lead in Toronto, a 22-point lead in the GTA, and a 30-point lead in south central Ontario.<\/p>\n

As for the demographic breakdown, the PC is leading by more than 30 points among men, 8 points among women, and is also ahead of its rivals in every age group, including a 30-point lead among voters aged 50 and over.<\/p>\n

The Ontario NDP ranks third in Toronto with 22 per cent support (four points behind the OLP) and in the GTA with only 15 per cent support. The NDP performs best in Eastern Ontario (33 per cent) and Southwestern Ontario (30 per cent). As for the OLP, it performs best in and around Toronto, but does not break the 20 per cent bar in the rest of the province.<\/p>\n

Consider the following graph. It depicts the 338Canada<\/a> projections for Ontario since January 2020:<\/p>\n



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As stated above, Doug Ford\u2019s standing in the polls in early 2020 was tenuous at best with a near statistical tie with the OLP and ONDP. Perceptions of the PC Party have improved significantly in the second half of 2020, and the PC now finds itself slightly above its 2018 results in terms of average popular support.<\/p>\n

We add this latest Mainstreet Research poll to the 338Canada Ontario model (all Ontario polls are listed on this page<\/a>). Taking into account all this publicly available data, the Ontario PC would easily cruise to a crushing majority victory at Queen\u2019s Park with current levels of support. Indeed, the PC wins an average of 88 seats\u201425 seats above the threshold for a majority at the Ontario Legislative Assembly:<\/p>\n


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Naturally, it should be stressed that the PCs also benefits from a near-perfect split among the two main opposition parties.\u00a0With these levels of support, the ONDP would be reduced to 22 seats on average, significantly below its 40-seat result of 2018. As for the OLP, it wins an average of 13 seats, marginally better than the 7 seats it won back in 2018. The Ontario Green Party would most likely retain its lone seat of Guelph, although, without specific local data, the uncertainty of district projections remains high.<\/p>\n

Here below are the seat probability densities for the main three parties, which shows the averages (dark lines) as well as worst- and best-case scenarios of each party:


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This Mainstreet poll does not arrive in a vacuum: Other recent Ontario polls have also shown that Doug Ford\u2019s handling of the pandemic has been generally well received by Ontarians: In its latest weekly update, L\u00e9ger<\/a> measured that 62 per cent of Ontario voters were satisfied with their provincial government, a fraction that goes beyond partisan lines. Also last week, the Angus Reid Institute<\/a> published similar results in its own survey, with 55 per cent of Ontario voters approving of Doug Ford\u2019s performance as Premier. Finally, earlier this week, Campaign Research<\/a> released its latest Ontario numbers and also measured Doug Ford comfortably ahead in voting intentions.<\/p>\n

The next Ontario election is scheduled for June 2022\u2014a distant 18 months away from now\u2014so these numbers should not be viewed as a prediction of how Ontarian voters will behave by then, but rather as a snapshot of the current political landscape in the province. Similar to Fran\u00e7ois Legault\u2019s standing in the National Assembly in Quebec, it appears Doug Ford remains solidly in command over a divided opposition at Queen\u2019s Park. The next year ahead will be challenging for Ford and the Ontario Tories: a massive vaccine rollout operation to be coordinated with the federal government, deficits of historic proportions, and, hopefully, a return to \u201cnormal\u201d life and economic growth. How well or how poorly the PC manages these challenges of 2021 will certainly set the stage for the 2022 Ontario campaign.<\/p>\n

Follow 338Canada on Twitter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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For complete numbers on this 338Canada projection, visit the 338Canada Ontario page<\/a>. The full map is available here<\/a>. You will find all 124 electoral district projections on this page<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Mainstreet Research collected data from 1,014 potential Ontario voters on December 5, 2020 using IVR technology<\/a>. This probabilistic poll has a margin of error of 2.9%, 19 times out of 20. The poll was commissioned by 338Canada\/Qc125. Here is Mainstreet\u2019s\u00a0full report<\/a>\u00a0with complete data tables.<\/em>
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