{"id":133279,"date":"2020-12-14T22:55:00","date_gmt":"2020-12-14T19:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/top-forecaster-sees-a-rough-patch-the-next-three-months-then-a-strong-recovery-as-covid-fades\/"},"modified":"2020-12-14T22:55:00","modified_gmt":"2020-12-14T19:55:00","slug":"top-forecaster-sees-a-rough-patch-the-next-three-months-then-a-strong-recovery-as-covid-fades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/top-forecaster-sees-a-rough-patch-the-next-three-months-then-a-strong-recovery-as-covid-fades\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  Top forecaster sees a rough patch the next three months, then a strong recovery as COVID fades"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a238780e2260\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a238780e2260\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/top-forecaster-sees-a-rough-patch-the-next-three-months-then-a-strong-recovery-as-covid-fades\/#Unusual_rebound_will_be_led_by_high-income_families_spending_on_travel_restaurants_and_leisure\" >Unusual rebound will be led by high-income families spending on travel, restaurants and leisure<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/top-forecaster-sees-a-rough-patch-the-next-three-months-then-a-strong-recovery-as-covid-fades\/#Bridge_needed\" >Bridge needed<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-6'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/top-forecaster-sees-a-rough-patch-the-next-three-months-then-a-strong-recovery-as-covid-fades\/#Supply_constraints\" >Supply constraints?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/top-forecaster-sees-a-rough-patch-the-next-three-months-then-a-strong-recovery-as-covid-fades\/#Rex_Nutting\" >Rex Nutting<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  Top forecaster sees a rough patch the next three months, then a strong recovery as COVID fades<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Unusual_rebound_will_be_led_by_high-income_families_spending_on_travel_restaurants_and_leisure\"><\/span>\n  Unusual rebound will be led by high-income families spending on travel, restaurants and leisure<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000093294\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       The next few months are going to be rough, but the economy should come roaring back once the COVID-19 vaccine is rolled out and Congress provides another round of relief, says Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies and the winner of MarketWatch\u2019s Forecaster of the Month contest for November.<\/p>\n<p> See MarketWatch\u2019s complete coverage of the economy.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       She\u2019s optimistic about an economic recovery in 2021, with gross domestic product rising 4.5% and job growth of about 400,000 a month. Her optimism is grounded in a tremendous amount of pent-up demand matched by a glut of savings.<\/p>\n<p>However, \u201cthe next few months will be challenging,\u201d Markowska said in an interview. The key will be another stimulus package that\u2019s \u201cbig enough to get us to the other side,\u201d one she predicts will probably come in late January.<\/p>\n<h6><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bridge_needed\"><\/span>Bridge needed<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h6>\n<p> The second wave of COVID-19 is driving consumers into hiding. \u201cConsumer activity is showing no signs of life, and the labor market continues to lose momentum\u201d in the past week, she reports. <\/p>\n<p>Small businesses and millions of workers need a bridge to get to spring. If there\u2019s no deal in Washington, millions would lose income, debt forbearance and protection from evictions. More small businesses would close permanently. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re just three months away,\u201d she says. <\/p>\n<p>She figures the stimulus will boost incomes in February, just as vaccines begin to have an impact on bending the curve of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Breaking <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>:<\/strong> McConnell lashes out at Democrats as fiscal stimulus discussions stumble forward<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEveryone is ready to go back to living their lives,\u201d she says. \u201cThe demand will be there.\u201d   <\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>  Even assuming Congress acts, she expects consumer spending to be flat in the first three months of the year.<\/p>\n<p>This unusual recovery will be led by high-income and savings-rich families increasing their spending on services, the opposite of the usual pattern of lower-income families slowly regaining employment and slowly spending more on durable goods. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe top 25% of U.S. households have suffered virtually no job losses, yet their spending is still down nearly 10%, with the shortfall likely concentrated in high-contact service spending,\u201d she wrote in a note to clients. Meanwhile, low-income families have lost 20% of their jobs, but have managed to maintain their spending at nearly 100% of pre-pandemic levels, thanks to the extraordinary federal payments that are now in danger of going away.<\/p>\n<p>Because they weren\u2019t spending as much as before, the top 20% of families have added $1.3 trillion to their cash holdings this year, according to the Federal Reserve. That\u2019s a lot of firepower.<\/p>\n<h6><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Supply_constraints\"><\/span>Supply constraints?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h6>\n<p> The big question is whether the supply of services can meet the demand once face-to-face interactions resume. If 20% of restaurants and bars are gone, it may take a while for new establishments to open, she says.<\/p>\n<p>The sectors that have done the best in 2020\u2014motor vehicles, recreational goods and delivery services\u2014will probably underperform in 2021, while the industries that suffered this year\u2014hotels, airlines, and personal care\u2014should recover quickly. <\/p>\n<p>Retail inventories are quite low, so Markowska expects manufacturing firms to invest in new equipment to help meet the demand. Consumer spending and capital investments should drive growth in 2021, she says. <\/p>\n<p>In the November contest, Markowska and her colleague Tom Simons had the most accurate forecasts (among 45 forecasting teams) on three indicators\u2014housing starts, retail sales and consumer confidence. Their forecasts on three others\u2014the ISM index, the consumer price index and industrial production\u2014were among the 10 most accurate.<\/p>\n<p>Markowska and Simons also won our monthly contest in April.<\/p>\n<p> The runners-up in the October contest were Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors, Ryan Sweet of Moody\u2019s Analytics, Stephen Gallagher of Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale, and Seth Carpenter\u2019s team at UBS. <\/p>\n<p>The MarketWatch <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>n consensus published in our\u00a0Economic Calendar\u00a0includes the predictions of the 15 forecasters who have earned the most points in our contest over the past 12 months, plus the forecast of the most recent winner of the monthly contest.<\/p>\n<p>The economists included in our consensus forecast are: Christophe Barraud of Market Securities, Jim O\u2019Sullivan of TD Securities, Spencer Staples of EconAlpha, Ryan Sweet of Moody\u2019s Analytics, Seth Carpenter\u2019s team at UBS, Andrew Hollenhorst\u2019s team at Citigroup, Stephen Gallagher at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale, Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein at First Trust Advisors, Avery Shenfeld\u2019s team at CIBC, Jay Bryson\u2019s team at Wells Fargo, Michelle Meyer\u2019s team at Bank of America, Lou Crandall of Wrightson ICAP, Aneta Markowska and Tom Simons at Jefferies, Ellen Zentner\u2019s team at Morgan Stanley, and Richard Moody at Regions Financial.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Rex Nutting\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Rex_Nutting\"><\/span>Rex Nutting<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B21005575-02D4-D4B5-4572-D16C6EF109A1%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Top forecaster sees a rough patch the next three months, then a strong recovery as COVID fades &#8221; Unusual rebound will be led by high-income families spending on travel, restaurants and leisure The next few months are going to be rough, but the economy should come roaring back once the COVID-19 vaccine is rolled&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":133280,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-133279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=133279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133279\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/133280"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=133279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=133279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=133279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}