{"id":135116,"date":"2020-12-17T00:05:00","date_gmt":"2020-12-16T21:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/how-a-weaker-dollar-could-help-fuel-a-commodities-boom-in-2021\/"},"modified":"2020-12-17T00:05:00","modified_gmt":"2020-12-16T21:05:00","slug":"how-a-weaker-dollar-could-help-fuel-a-commodities-boom-in-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/how-a-weaker-dollar-could-help-fuel-a-commodities-boom-in-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  How a weaker dollar could help fuel a commodities boom in 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3b5971c096a\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3b5971c096a\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/how-a-weaker-dollar-could-help-fuel-a-commodities-boom-in-2021\/#Weaker_dollar_accompanied_last_commodities_boom\" >Weaker dollar accompanied last commodities boom<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/how-a-weaker-dollar-could-help-fuel-a-commodities-boom-in-2021\/#William_Watts\" >William Watts<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  How a weaker dollar could help fuel a commodities boom in 2021<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Weaker_dollar_accompanied_last_commodities_boom\"><\/span>\n  Weaker dollar accompanied last commodities boom<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000096575\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Long-suffering commodity markets may have turned a corner after a pandemic-induced collapse in 2020. What h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ens next may depend on the fate of the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe only way to get commodities\u00a0moving in an inflationary, buying power\u00a0way is a weaker dollar,\u201d said Doug King, head of RCMA\u2019s Merchant Commodity Fund and one of the world\u2019s best known commodity traders, in an interview with MarketWatch.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       And a glide path to a weaker dollar does indeed appear to be in place, King said.<\/p>\n<p>2020 was a messy and volatile year for commodities, as it was for other assets. But commodities are coming off a long stretch of weakness after a China-fueled commodity boom \u2014 part of what some economists and investors labeled a supercycle \u2014 appeared to peak in 2011. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Related:<\/strong> Why Goldman Sachs sees a bull market for commodities brewing in 2021<\/p>\n<p>The signature event of 2020 came in April when a crash in oil prices saw West Texas Inter<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>te crude futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange trade \u2014 and close \u2014 in negative territory for the first time ever. In other words, traders were paid to take crude off other traders\u2019 hands.<\/p>\n<p>The debacle underscored the shock that rocked financial markets and the global economy as activity around the world ground to a near halt in an initial effort to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>It wasn\u2019t just oil that suffered. The Bloomberg Commodity Index<br \/>\n        BCOM,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210597940\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+5.38%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       which tracks 23 commodity futures markets, traded at an all-time low in April based on data going back to 1991, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<\/p>\n<p>Since then, a broad-based commodity rally has seen the index rise more than 27% from its low, though it remains down more than 7% for the year. <\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n              \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetDynamic\n          inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetDynamic\n          article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dynamic-inset-container article__inset__dynamic\">\n<div id=\"chart_cc2726977db2d693655f17e6\"><\/div>\n<p><script>\n(function () {\n  function createChart() 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After being the first major economy to be slammed by the virus, China \u2014 and much of the rest of Asia \u2014 have appeared to do a better job containing the virus, sparking a resurgence in economic activity and prompting a sharp rise in demand for a range of commodities, including corn, soybeans and industrial metals.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>Analysts at Montreal-based Pavilion Global Markets noted that Chinese demand for commodities, including oil, soybeans, and more recently, copper, is outpacing the level seen during the peak of China\u2019s industrialization, which fueled the early 2000s surge in commodity prices.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt isn\u2019t just copper either; the prices of various industrial metals, from lead and iron ore to nickel and zinc, are rising,\u201d they said in an Oct. 31 note.<\/p>\n<p><strong>See:<\/strong> Iron ore leads gains for industrial metals, up nearly 65% this year<\/p>\n<p>The developed world remains the wild card, but ultralow interest rates, high savings rates and governments that appear committed to spending on infrastructure and avoiding austerity fuel optimism both for demand and the potential for an inflationary backdrop that would be a positive for a range of commodities.<\/p>\n<p>Bullish expectations also are being fueled by supply constraints, which have been exacerbated for some commodities, including metals, amid pandemic-related shutdowns of mines and other interruptions to supply chains. What\u2019s more, those constraints come as weak prices for a range of commodities have left investment and productive capacity at low ebb.<\/p>\n<p>Take copper, for example.  <\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/news-insights\/blog\/major-copper-deposit-dismal-discovery-rate-continues\" class=\"icon none\">in a June report<\/a>, described a \u201cdismal decade\u201d of underinvestment in the industry. The report noted that there have been 224 copper deposits discovered between 1990 and 2019. But only 16 were found within in the past 10 years and just one since 2015. And while there are still plenty of undeveloped discoveries, most are smaller or low-grade, the report found, with few high-quality assets available for development. <\/p>\n<p>Tight supplies also are a factor for agricultural commodities. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December lowered its estimate of ending soybean stocks for the 2020\/21 marketing year to a seven-year low of 175 million bushels. Corn stocks are also seen tight at 1.7 billion bushels.<\/p>\n<p>Again, rampant Chinese demand is a key factor. China has sucked up soybeans from the U.S. and South America as it moved to restock a swine herd decimated by African swine fever in 2019. <\/p>\n<p>With supplies tight, \u201cwe can\u2019t afford to have a huge disaster of a crop in North or South America,\u201d King said. <\/p>\n<p>The current backdrop is reminiscent of what\u2019s been seen at the start of previous up swings in the commodity cycle, according to bullish investors. Those signposts include a global economy coming out of recession, prospects for ample fiscal stimulus that should translate into increased infrastructure spending and ultralow interest rates and ample liquidity looking for a home.<\/p>\n<p> \u201cI think we\u2019re at the start of a multiyear commodity bull market,\u201d Saad Rahim, chief economist for Trafigura, one of the world\u2019s largest commodity traders, told MarketWatch.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Commodities Corner:<\/strong> Natural gas prices look to post first calendar-year gain since 2016<\/p>\n<p>Demand isn\u2019t set to snap back to pre-pandemic levels across the board. Passenger airline <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/trip-and-travel\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"Trip &amp; Travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">travel<\/a> might be able to return to 80% to 90% of its previous level by next summer, but that would still mark a substantial pickup in demand from current levels for jet fuel, the petroleum product that suffered the hardest hit as COVID-19 all but halted airline traffic.<\/p>\n<p>The push for renewable energy will heat up demand for a variety of metals, with increased production of electric vehicles boosting demand for nickel and cobalt, Rahim said.<\/p>\n<p>Some analysts see a mixed picture for commodities, however. While a weaker dollar and the potential for a fuller global economic reopening next year should be a boon for more cyclical commodities, including metals and grains, other areas see ample supplies, said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, in an interview.<\/p>\n<p>Oil, for one, could see rising prices met with a quick return to output by U.S. shale producers. Meanwhile, the demand outlook is clouded given the unknown extent the work-from-home phenomenon will persists beyond the end of the pandemic, undercutting fuel demand.<\/p>\n<p>But supplies for many commodities are tight and demand is ramping back up. What about the dollar?<\/p>\n<p>A weaker currency can provide a boost to commodities that are largely priced in U.S. dollars. A cheaper dollar makes those commodities less expensive to users of other currencies. <\/p>\n<p>The dollar rode a roller coaster in 2020, surging in February and March as the pandemic sparked global financial turmoil and a rush for greenbacks by businesses world-wide. Aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, particularly the expansion of dollar swap lines between the Fed and its counterparts, helped ease the crunch.<\/p>\n<p>As markets calmed and stocks bottomed out, the dollar came under pressure. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index<br \/>\n        DXY,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598269\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-0.18%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, tumbled from a more-than-three-year high in early March to test levels last seen in April 2018. And the consensus call appears to be that the trend for the dollar has turned, potentially heralding years of softness versus major rivals.<\/p>\n<p>A weaker dollar isn\u2019t about a weak U.S. economy, but is more about stronger growth outside the U.S., analysts said. And that\u2019s part of the reason why a weaker dollar is seen as a positive for commodities.<\/p>\n<p>China has allowed its currency<br \/>\n        USDCNY,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210561991\/realtime\/sampled\" class=\"negative\">-0.10%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       to strengthen significantly, which has aided its buying power as it goes on a commodity buying spree, Rahim said. The inflationary impetus from a weaker dollar just adds to a \u201cvirtuous circle\u201d that\u2019s positive for commodities, Rahim said.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n              \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetDynamic\n          inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetDynamic\n          article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dynamic-inset-container article__inset__dynamic\">\n<div id=\"chart_960cbf19f103a5a8aedb641b\"><\/div>\n<p><script>\n(function () {\n  function createChart() {\n    var CHART_ENGINE_NAME = 'CustomDataChart_MARKETWATCH_0_8_58';\n    var definitions = {};\n    function loadScript(src) {\n      var script = document.createElement('script');\n      script.setAttribute('src', src);\n      document.body.appendChild(script);\n    }\n    function checkIfScriptsAreComplete() {\n      for (var key in definitions) {\n        if (definitions.hasOwnProperty(key)) {\n     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'chartlos',\n        chartId: '960cbf19f103a5a8aedb641b',\n        chartVersion: '0_8_58',\n        chartProduct: 'MARKETWATCH',\n        articleId: articleId ? articleId.getAttribute('content') : '',\n        articleType: metaType ? metaType.getAttribute('content') : '',\n        articleSection: metaType ? metaSection.getAttribute('content') : '',\n        pageSource: pageSource ? pageSource.getAttribute('content') : ''\n      }\n      window.NREUM.addPageAction(\n        'chartlos:' + action,\n        data\n      );\n    }\n  }\n  if (document.readyState === 'complete') {\n    createChart();\n  } else {\n    window.addEventListener('load', createChart, false);\n  }\n})();\n<\/script><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       What\u2019s more, the potential for significant dollar moves is often underestimated, he said, noting the currency tends to move in five to 10-year cycles. \u201cPeople don\u2019t talk about the dollar moving 30% to 40% (over the course of cycle), but look at history and it does,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe dollar is very important,\u201d said King, whose Merchant Commodity Fund was up 20% for the year to date through early December. The teeth of the 2004-2011 commodity boom went hand in hand with a weaker dollar and the boost to buying power it provided commodity importers.<\/p>\n<p>What could go wrong? <\/p>\n<p>In the near term, the potential for hiccups center on renewed lockdowns that could end up curtailing activity and commodity demand, Rahim said. Longer term, a policy mistake in which central banks move too quickly to withdraw stimulus would be a bigger threat.<\/p>\n<p>But Rahim said he does think the pickup in demand is likely to prove self-sustaining. <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"William Watts\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"William_Watts\"><\/span>William Watts<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B21005575-02D4-D4B5-4572-D1793F772619%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# How a weaker dollar could help fuel a commodities boom in 2021 &#8221; Weaker dollar accompanied last commodities boom Long-suffering commodity markets may have turned a corner after a pandemic-induced collapse in 2020. What happens next may depend on the fate of the U.S. dollar. \u201cThe only way to get commodities\u00a0moving in an inflationary,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":135117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-135116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=135116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135116\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/135117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=135116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=135116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=135116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}