{"id":145257,"date":"2021-01-01T03:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-01-01T00:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions\/"},"modified":"2021-01-01T03:30:00","modified_gmt":"2021-01-01T00:30:00","slug":"close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"# Close, but no cigar! Here are 2020\u2019s worst Bitcoin price predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3df9c111b17\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3df9c111b17\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions\/#%E2%80%9CGuesstimation%E2%80%9D_attracts_attention_because_nobody_follows_them_up\" >\u201cGuesstimation\u201d attracts attention because nobody follows them up<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions\/#CryptoWhales_quantum_model_calls_for_24000_BTC_in_mid-2022\" >CryptoWhale\u2019s quantum model calls for $24,000 BTC in mid-2022<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions\/#Ross_Ulbricht_predicts_nine_months_of_downside_after_Black_Thursday\" >Ross Ulbricht predicts nine months of downside after Black Thursday<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions\/#Gavin_Smith_says_Bitcoin_will_close_2020_at_7000\" >Gavin Smith says Bitcoin will close 2020 at $7,000<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions\/#Antoni_Trenchev_calls_for_50000_Bitcoin_price_in_2020\" >Antoni Trenchev calls for $50,000 Bitcoin price in 2020<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Close, but no cigar! Here are 2020\u2019s worst Bitcoin price predictions <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-5a136f3a>Pundits and crypto analysts love to issue Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions regardless of how volatile the asset class is.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In 2017, there were calls for BTC\u2019s price to hit $35,000\u2013$50,000, and of course, a few brave souls predicted that the price would top $1 million before correcting. <\/p>\n<p>No one will forget how John McAfee infamously promised to chomp off his genitals if BTC\u2019s price didn\u2019t hit $1 million by 2020. <\/p>\n<p>While some of these lofty estimates are based on fundamentals, others are entirely baseless. Regardless of the analyst\u2019s rationale, a handful of them are so far removed from reality that they have become memes.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s review the most outrageous Bitcoin price predictions of 2020.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CGuesstimation%E2%80%9D_attracts_attention_because_nobody_follows_them_up\"><\/span>\u201cGuesstimation\u201d attracts attention because nobody follows them up <span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Guessing the future price of cryptocurrencies is so embedded in the community that many analysts don\u2019t even consider evaluating their effectiveness. Keeping up with the endless flow of predictions issued on blogs, podcasts, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a> and YouTube is almost impossible. Imagine the difficulty and energy it would take for a person to follow up with all these random guesses.<\/p>\n<p>To further complicate matters, some of these predictions come from well-known Bitcoin bashers, such as renowned gold bug Peter Schiff, and New York University Stern School of Business professor Nouriel Roubini. Thus, in some cases, personal credentials sometimes matter less than working analytical models.<\/p>\n<p>A month before the March 12 crash, which saw Bitcoin\u2019s price plummet 50% to $3,750, PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model stated that Bitcoin would not return below $8,200. At the time, no one expected the Dow Jones equities index to face its most significant drop since 1987, neither the WTI oil future contract dropping to negative $40.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the outlandish claim, PlanB won\u2019t be nominated to 2020\u2019s worse predictions because hardly anyone expected the coronavirus pandemic to impact the markets in a way that would cause absolute havoc. Furthermore, famous chartist Peter Brandt also made the same error when he said that BTC would never revisit the sub-$6,000 level in January. <\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"CryptoWhales_quantum_model_calls_for_24000_BTC_in_mid-2022\"><\/span>CryptoWhale\u2019s quantum model calls for $24,000 BTC in mid-2022<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>On June 2, 2020, Twitter analyst CryptoWhale revealed a new \u201cquantum\u201d model that would predict Bitcoin\u2019s price. According to CryptoWhale, the model had \u201ceffectively predicted every major move since 2018.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-12\/47c00003-9166-4e20-9caf-8d248515d32b.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin\u2019s price in USD. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Things could not have gotten worse as the model predicted both a $2,000 bottom in 2020 and a \u201cproper bull run to $24,000\u201d only in mid-2022. Somehow, the quantum particles, molecules and atoms that were supposed to make it more accurate were, in fact, pure blasphemy.<\/p>\n<p>Two lessons that can be taken away from the \u201cquantum model\u201d are: (1) Having a ton of social network followers doesn\u2019t necessarily translate to better price estimates, and (2) complex models are prone to the same errors as humans. Evaluating a new asset class during a period of desperate central bank monetary easing is far from easy.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Ross_Ulbricht_predicts_nine_months_of_downside_after_Black_Thursday\"><\/span>Ross Ulbricht predicts nine months of downside after Black Thursday <span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>In April, Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the now-defunct Silk Road darknet market, wrote that Bitcoin\u2019s volatility \u2014 particularly the March 12 bloodbath \u2014 would most likely lead to a bear market, which could last for three to nine months. At that time, Bitcoin had been hovering around $7,000 and was clearly still affected by the recent 50% intraday correction.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-12\/1b505cae-4db4-41d6-bcdf-9190ef303b5f.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Ross Ulbricht\u2019s chart annotations. Source: Medium<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Precisely 17 days after that blog <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/rossulbricht.medium.com\/bitcoin-by-ross-9-a-strong-signal-for-lower-prices-87d2cdcdba95\">post<\/a>, BTC soared over 30% to $9,000, thus completely invalidating Ulbricht\u2019s analysis. To further show how far off that analysis was, Ulbricht added that a $14,000 bull run was \u201cvery unlikely.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>During Ulbricht\u2019s so-called bear market period, Bitcoin\u2019s price rallied more than 300% from December 2018 to June 2019. Furthermore, calling for such a lengthy correction doesn\u2019t align with Bitcoin\u2019s historical data because even during the darkest period of December 2019, Bitcoin\u2019s price remained more than 100% above the previous year\u2019s lows.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Gavin_Smith_says_Bitcoin_will_close_2020_at_7000\"><\/span>Gavin Smith says Bitcoin will close 2020 at $7,000<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>During a July 27 interview with Forbes, Panxora CEO Gavin Smith said that he expected a $7,000 Bitcoin price by the end of the year. Gavin further added that \u201ca short term washout this year before the true rally takes hold.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Panxora\u2019s CEO explained that despite the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>reciating tendency caused by inflation hedge, the broader impact of demand shock on the economy would potentially drive BTC lower. <\/p>\n<p>This estimate happened after 80 days of Bitcoin\u2019s price consolidating around $9,500. At the time, despite rising 100% from mid-March lows, there was still some doubt about BTC\u2019s ability to break the $10,000 resistance.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Antoni_Trenchev_calls_for_50000_Bitcoin_price_in_2020\"><\/span>Antoni Trenchev calls for $50,000 Bitcoin price in 2020<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>On Jan. 3, 2020, Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev stated that BTC could easily reach $50,000 in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Besides an overly optimistic estimate, the rationale behind it doesn\u2019t seem to fit. According to Trenchev, Bitcoin had become \u201cthe new gold,\u201d and he pointed to the lack of correlation to traditional markets as a potential catalyst.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-12\/1a0ec950-915c-440a-8bcf-27dda7bf654a.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Gold, USD\/OZ (right) vs. S&amp;P 500 (left). Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As shown above, gold traded in tandem with traditional markets for the larger part of 2020, but it should be noted that these asset classes have different volatility. Thus, oscillations in equities tend to be much stronger. Nevertheless, the overall direction of both markets until November has been very much alike.<\/p>\n<p>This price movement creates the impossible task where BTC is expected to act as \u201cthe new gold\u201d while simultaneously presenting a lack of correlation. This estimate went doubly wrong for missing its year-end target by a wide margin and also failing to correctly estimate gold\u2019s correlation to traditional markets.<\/p>\n<p>Now that Bitcoin\u2019s price is a mere 7.4% away from $30,000, it will be even more interesting to see what type of extravagant bullish and bearish price estimates are issued for 2021. <\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>autho<\/em><em>r<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/close-but-no-cigar-here-are-2020-s-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Close, but no cigar! Here are 2020\u2019s worst Bitcoin price predictions &#8221; Pundits and crypto analysts love to issue Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions regardless of how volatile the asset class is.\u00a0 In 2017, there were calls for BTC\u2019s price to hit $35,000\u2013$50,000, and of course, a few brave souls predicted that the price would&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":145258,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2020-12\/8339835e-bf67-4067-b7e4-0cd23df4a85c.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74937,74863,73785],"class_list":["post-145257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145257\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/145258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}