{"id":169315,"date":"2021-02-02T20:32:37","date_gmt":"2021-02-02T17:32:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/ethereum-derivatives-data-suggests-traders-expect-prices-above-2000\/"},"modified":"2021-02-02T20:32:37","modified_gmt":"2021-02-02T17:32:37","slug":"ethereum-derivatives-data-suggests-traders-expect-prices-above-2000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-derivatives-data-suggests-traders-expect-prices-above-2000\/","title":{"rendered":"# Ethereum derivatives data suggests traders expect prices above $2,000"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2c0481b03dd\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2c0481b03dd\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-derivatives-data-suggests-traders-expect-prices-above-2000\/#Futures_premium_signals_traders_are_bullish\" >Futures premium signals traders are bullish<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-derivatives-data-suggests-traders-expect-prices-above-2000\/#Top_traders_have_room_to_add_long_positions\" >Top traders have room to add long positions<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Ethereum derivatives data suggests traders expect prices above $2,000 <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-5a136f3a>After marking a new $1,477 high on Jan. 24, Ether&#8217;s (ETH) price was shaken down to $1,206 on Jan. 27. But according to derivatives markets, bulls remain confident that $2,000 is still within reach.<\/p>\n<p>The neutral-to-bearish put options open interest above $1,360 is irrelevant, and only 2,540 ETH options, equivalent to $3.4 million in open interest, is above that price level. That being said, more than 99.5% of the put options open interest will become worthless if ETH trades at $1,360 or above.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-02\/2bed2674-1ae4-4326-a5f7-2c9fd64df2ab.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>ETH options aggregate open interest by strike. Source: Bybt<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As shown above, data from both call and put options seems well balanced, as the open interest indicator favors bulls by a mere 34%. The data also shows that Ether\u2019s 79% year-to-date rally has really taken a toll on bears.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, the neutral-to-bullish call options ranging from $1,000 to $1,340 amount to 59,730 ETH. That amounts to $79.6 million in open interest, not counting those strikes below such range. Therefore, apart from dominating on a 23-to-1 ratio, the bulls have every incentive to keep pushing the price up.<\/p>\n<p>For example, if ETH rallies above $1,440, another 56,000 call options come into play, compared with a mere 7,600 put options. This equals another $70 million in open interest favoring the neutral-to-bullish call option. The imbalance would then amount to $152 million, completely extinguishing bears&#8217; hopes.<\/p>\n<p>Not every option open interest is set to expire over the next couple of months. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-02\/7df28a0a-e844-4346-bcdb-e4cdc1b2a7ee.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>ETH options aggregate open interest by expiry. Source: Bybt<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The expiry calendar for 2021 holds 50% of the open interest on Feb. 26 and Mar. 26, although longer-term options tend to gain more relevance throughout the year.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Futures_premium_signals_traders_are_bullish\"><\/span>Futures premium signals traders are bullish<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The futures premium measures how expensive longer-term futures contracts are compared with the current spot in traditional markets. It can be thought of as a relative reflection of investor optimism, and fixed-calendar futures tend to trade at a slight premium to regular spot exchanges.<\/p>\n<p>These fixed-month futures contracts should trade with a 10% to 20% annualized premium (basis) in healthy markets, and any number above this range denotes extreme optimism. Meanwhile, the lack of a premium is a signal that traders may be bearish.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-02\/3295a30e-84fc-48e4-9496-599c393cc1ca.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>March 2021 ETH futures premium. Source: <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.digitalassetsdata.com\/\"><em>NYDIG Digital Assets Data<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The above chart shows that the premium was cut drastically on Jan. 21 as Ether plunged by more than 20% to test sub-$1,100 levels. More recently, on Jan. 27, the premium reached an 8.7% annualized rate near neutral-to-bearish levels.<\/p>\n<p>This data is more than enough evidence to support the claim that the options market is bullish. Even during the worst sell-offs over the last couple of months, derivatives markets have held a positive stance.<\/p>\n<p>The current 2.9% rate equals a healthy 20% annualized premium, indicating that bulls are not anticipating any problems.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Top_traders_have_room_to_add_long_positions\"><\/span>Top traders have room to add long positions<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Exchange-provided data highlights traders&#8217; long-to-short net positioning. By analyzing every client&#8217;s position on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can obtain a clearer view of whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish. <\/p>\n<p>With this said, there are occasional discrepancies in the methodologies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-02\/018c72d6-d8cd-4887-8ec9-110ccd80216d.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Exchanges&#8217; top traders ETH long-to-short ratio. Source: Bybt<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The top traders indices at Binance and Huobi have been in net short ETH positions over the past week. OKEx stands out, as its top traders long-to-short has been increasing over the past five days and currently favors longs by 56%.<\/p>\n<p>This shows that there is little evidence of excessive optimism by top traders while leaving room for leverage in the case of an upcoming bull run. <\/p>\n<p>To sum up, both ETH options and futures markets show clear signs that traders are incredibly bullish on Ether for the next couple of months.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>autho<\/em><em>r<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/ethereum-derivatives-data-suggest-traders-expect-prices-above-2-000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Ethereum derivatives data suggests traders expect prices above $2,000 &#8221; After marking a new $1,477 high on Jan. 24, Ether&#8217;s (ETH) price was shaken down to $1,206 on Jan. 27. But according to derivatives markets, bulls remain confident that $2,000 is still within reach. The neutral-to-bearish put options open interest above $1,360 is irrelevant,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":169316,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMDIvMjM0NGMyZWUtZjFkNC00ODRiLWE1MjYtZmFjZTJiNmU5NWNjLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74867,74863,74860,75012,82402,74891,81210,74939,73785],"class_list":["post-169315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-altcoin","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-derivatives","tag-ether-price","tag-ethereum","tag-ethereum-options","tag-market-analysis","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169315\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/169316"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}