{"id":172558,"date":"2021-02-07T02:39:00","date_gmt":"2021-02-06T23:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/mark-hulbert-bucs-not-chiefs-will-win-one-for-the-bulls-if-the-super-bowl-indicator-is-right\/"},"modified":"2021-02-07T02:39:00","modified_gmt":"2021-02-06T23:39:00","slug":"mark-hulbert-bucs-not-chiefs-will-win-one-for-the-bulls-if-the-super-bowl-indicator-is-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-bucs-not-chiefs-will-win-one-for-the-bulls-if-the-super-bowl-indicator-is-right\/","title":{"rendered":"#Mark Hulbert: Bucs, not Chiefs, will win one for the bulls if the Super Bowl Indicator is right"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2d2620702c9\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2d2620702c9\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-bucs-not-chiefs-will-win-one-for-the-bulls-if-the-super-bowl-indicator-is-right\/#Stock_market_predictor_actually_doesnt_predict_much_but_still_gets_attention\" >Stock market predictor actually doesn\u2019t predict much but still gets attention<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-bucs-not-chiefs-will-win-one-for-the-bulls-if-the-super-bowl-indicator-is-right\/#Mark_Hulbert\" >Mark Hulbert<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#Mark Hulbert: Bucs, not Chiefs, will win one for the bulls if the Super Bowl Indicator is right<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Stock_market_predictor_actually_doesnt_predict_much_but_still_gets_attention\"><\/span>\n  Stock market predictor actually doesn\u2019t predict much but still gets attention<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000156223\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Would a Tampa Bay victory in this year\u2019s Super Bowl be good for the U.S. stock market? For followers of the famous Super Bowl Indicator, this is an important question.<\/p>\n<p> The Super Bowl Indicator predicts that stocks will rise if the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a>\u2019s winner traces its roots to the original National Football League before its merger with the American Football League in 1966 \u2014 and fall if the winning team can trace its root back to the A.F.L. <\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       Tampa Bay has no roots in either league, since it\u2019s an expansion team that joined the N.F.L. in 1976. So, for a precise interpretation of what a victory by an expansion team would mean, I dug through archives to find out what the originator of the indicator had to say. He was Leonard Koppett, a baseball Hall-of-Famer and sports writer; his first mention of the indicator, as far as I can tell, was in <em>Sporting <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a><\/em> in February 1978. Unfortunately, Koppett, who died in 2003, did not provide consistent advice on how to interpret an expansion team victory.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1989\/01\/02\/opinion\/the-super-bowl-s-perfect-22.html\" class=\"icon none\">1989 article for the New York Times<\/a>, for example, Koppett wrote that\u2014per his indicator\u2014stocks will rise from Super Bowl Sunday through the end of the year whenever the winning team cannot trace its roots back to the original A.F.L. That would suggest, by interpretation, that a Tampa Bay victory would be bullish for the stock market.<\/p>\n<p>But in another article after Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl in 2003, Koppett wrote that his indicator had \u201cnothing to say\u201d about how the stock market would perform that year.<\/p>\n<p>For purposes of calculating the Indicator\u2019s track record, I have used Koppett\u2019s 1989 formulation. That improves the Super Bowl Indicator\u2019s track record, since the stock market was up strongly in 2003. Even with that extra boost, however, the Indicator has been worthless: The probabilities of the stock market rising have been higher in the wake of a bearish prediction from the Indicator than in the wake of a bullish prediction.<\/p>\n<p>This was very much the case in 2020. Kansas City, an original A.F.L. team, won the 2020 Super Bowl, and far from falling from then until the end of the year, the S&amp;P 500<br \/>\n        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+0.39%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       gained 16.4% (before dividends).<\/p>\n<p>The Indicator\u2019s record over several decades is found in the chart below. Notice I calculated the odds beginning in 1978, which is when Koppett first wrote about the Super Bowl Indicator. Up to that point, it had a perfect track record \u2014 with the S&amp;P 500 rising every time an original N.F.L. team won and falling every time an original A.F.L. team won. But it\u2019s a big statistical no-no to calculate an indicator\u2019s track record with the data originally used to \u201cdiscover\u201d it in the first place.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        renoImageFormat-\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:67.34375%;\" data-mobile-ratio=\"67.34375%\" data-layout-ratio=\"67.34375%\" data-subtype=\"\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-295083?width=140&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 140w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-295083?width=540&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 540w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-295083?width=620&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 620w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-295083?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 700w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-295083?width=860&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 860w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-295083?width=1260&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 1260w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 140px) 100px,\n(max-width: 540px) 500px,\n(max-width: 620px) 580px,\n(max-width: 700px) 660px,\n(max-width: 860px) 820px,\n1260px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-295083?width=620&amp;size=1.4849187935034802\" data-enlarge=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-295083?width=1260&amp;size=1.4849187935034802\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       So-called real-time tests are a gold standard in statistical analysis, since only in that way can you reduce the odds that the prior correlation was simply a random fluke. Needless to say, the Super Bowl Indicator fails a real-time test.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The oilman who goes to heaven<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>Before leaving the subject of the Super Bowl Indicator, I want to address one of the more peculiar comebacks to analyses such as the one I\u2019ve presented here. Some insist that the Indicator still has validity, even while conceding that its statistical record is worthless. What makes it still worth following, they say, is that enough clueless and gullible investors think it is worthwhile.<\/p>\n<p>Koppett himself had little patience for this line of argument. He introduced the Super Bowl Indicator as a joke, not as something to be taken seriously. When the Indicator nonetheless caught on, he said it was an \u201cembarrassment.\u201d Near the end of his life, he wrote that it would be a \u201crelief\u201d if the indicator could be declared \u201cdead as a doornail.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Koppett\u2019s struggle with his \u201cjoke\u201d reminds me of another one that illustrates his point. This other one was recounted by Warren Buffett a number of years ago; it supposedly was told to him by Benjamin Graham, the father of fundamental analysis and author of The Intelligent Investor:<\/p>\n<p>An oilman dies and is told by St. Peter that while he deserves to get into heaven, there is no more room since there are already too many oilmen there. The oilman asks if it\u2019s OK for him to try to convince some of the oilmen already in heaven to go to hell, thereby opening up a spot for him, and St. Peter agrees. The oilman finds a convention of oilmen in heaven and yells to them that oil\u2019s been discovered in hell. Pretty soon there is a steady stream of them headed straight to hell, surprisingly with our newly deceased oilman following fast on their heels. When asked why he was turning down a spot in heaven, the oilman replied that, you never know, the rumor about the oil discovery just might be true.<\/p>\n<p>Don\u2019t become the butt of Koppett\u2019s or Buffett\u2019s joke.<\/p>\n<p><em>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at <\/em><em>mark@hulbertratings.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>More: <\/strong> Dr. Fauci warns against Super Bowl parties: \u2018Just lay low and cool it\u2019 <\/p>\n<p><strong>Plus: <\/strong> Dolly Parton talks about her Super Bowl commercial \u20185 to 9\u2019 and her $1 million donation for COVID-19 research <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Mark Hulbert\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mark_Hulbert\"><\/span>Mark Hulbert<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B21005575-02D4-D4B5-4572-D2623FE63FBC%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#Mark Hulbert: Bucs, not Chiefs, will win one for the bulls if the Super Bowl Indicator is right&#8221; Stock market predictor actually doesn\u2019t predict much but still gets attention Would a Tampa Bay victory in this year\u2019s Super Bowl be good for the U.S. stock market? For followers of the famous Super Bowl Indicator, this&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":172559,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-172558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172558\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/172559"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}