{"id":248945,"date":"2021-05-13T20:10:32","date_gmt":"2021-05-13T17:10:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/canadas-roadmap-to-reopening-look-to-saskatchewan\/"},"modified":"2021-05-13T20:10:32","modified_gmt":"2021-05-13T17:10:32","slug":"canadas-roadmap-to-reopening-look-to-saskatchewan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/canadas-roadmap-to-reopening-look-to-saskatchewan\/","title":{"rendered":"#Canada’s roadmap to reopening: Look to Saskatchewan"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#Canada’s roadmap to reopening: Look to Saskatchewan<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Half of all Canadian adults\u00a0have received first shots of a COVID-19 vaccine. Case counts and hospitalizations are coming down in some provinces. The weather is improving. As many Canadians endured another Mother\u2019s Day weekend under tight gathering restrictions, they watched videos on social media<\/a> of vaccinated Americans joyfully reuniting with friends and families. And that combination has left <\/span>Canadians desperate to know the plan for how we can enjoy the freedoms so many Americans and Britons do right now.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are wanting hope,\u201d says <\/span>Dr. Cory Neudorf, a professor in the department of community health and epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan. \u201cT<\/span>hey want to know that the sacrifices they\u2019ve been asked to put in for the last year and a bit have been worth it, and that there is light at the end of the tunnel.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe all want to have a summer where we can see our loved ones and invite friends over for barbecues,\u201d\u00a0 said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday.\u00a0 O<\/span>fficials in some provinces, including Ontario and Alberta, have said they are working on reopening plans.<\/span><\/p>\n

RELATED:\u00a0Ontario has paused AstraZeneca. So, can I get my second dose sooner?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

But only Saskatchewan\u2014well ahead of most provinces in getting shots into the arms of its residents\u2014has released a detailed one. And it may serve as a rough blueprint for the rest of the country to follow. At the very least, it gives a sense of the signals and milestones that will show the way to our long-awaited life after lockdowns.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe road back to normal runs through one of our vaccination clinics,\u201d said Premier Scott Moe on May 4. \u201cSaskatchewan\u2019s reopening roadmap is a three-step plan to gradually lift the current public health orders as Saskatchewan reaches significant vaccination levels.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

The first step of the province\u2019s <\/span>Re-Opening Roadmap<\/span><\/a> occurs three weeks after 70 per cent of those 40 and older have received first doses and vaccine eligibility has been opened to all adults, 18 and older. Moe expects that will occur in the last week of May, and at that point some restrictions ease. Bars and restaurants will open, and up to 30 people will be permitted to attend indoor public gatherings. As further vaccination and timing targets are reached, more public health measures will be eased.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moe uses the <\/span>United Kingdom\u2019s stepped approach<\/span><\/a> as his model, pointing out that Britain started step one of its reopening on March 8, when 43 per cent of adults had their first doses of vaccine; he announced his plan on the day Saskatchewan reached 44 per cent.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe emphasis on immunization coverage as the main metric to be looking at for a reopening strategy is a good move,\u201d Neudorf says. \u201cIt gives people a reason to go out and get immunized because once we reach certain marks, we\u2019re part of the solution.\u201d What\u2019s more, he says, the simplicity of Saskatchewan\u2019s plan makes it easy for everyone to understand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

RELATED:\u00a0Is Canada on track to reach herd immunity?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u201cBut it\u2019s maybe just a bit too simple as well, if I can be critical of our province,\u201d Neudorf continues. He doesn\u2019t think reopening metrics should be solely dependent on age-based immunization rates, explaining that vaccinations alone won\u2019t get Saskatchewan or the rest of Canada out its third wave. He, like Moe, uses the example of the United Kingdom, which <\/span>began its own \u201cfirst dose first\u201d vaccination program<\/span><\/a> at the very start of 2021. <\/span><\/p>\n

That meant it<\/span> was in midst of a variant-fuelled third wave while ramping up its vaccination rollout, like Canada is now. Yet, its <\/span>government also instituted a severe lockdown<\/span><\/a> just before Christmas that was harsher than anything seen in Canada and has lasted longer than most here, Neudorf explains. As well, Britain\u2019s multi-phase reopening plan was far more detailed than any Canadian one, so much so that it is a <\/span>21-page section within a 64-page<\/span><\/a>\u00a0overall COVID-19 response plan for the spring of 2021 (the devolved governments of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales customized it for their own residents).\u00a0Each stage could proceed only when the government determined it had passed four tests, measuring <\/span>not only <\/span>vaccination levels and the effect vaccines were having<\/span><\/a> on hospitalization<\/span> and death rates,\u00a0<\/span>but also infection rates and the spread of new variants.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So while Britain had roughly <\/span>43 per cent of first doses in arms<\/span><\/a> of eligible adults when it started, its\u00a0per capita rate of new cases <\/span>was 87.8<\/span><\/a> per million population. In contrast, Canada, which has first doses into arms of half of its adult population currently has a daily case rate of 185.5 per million population.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Britain\u2019s pace of reopening is notably deliberate, with at least five weeks between each step. After that first step on March 8, there was a wait until April 12 before r<\/span>etailers and hair salons and outdoor pub dining were allowed to reopen.<\/span><\/a> Even then, many restrictions remained. So, even though <\/span>Britain\u2019s daily case count had dropped to 38.5 per million<\/span><\/a>, only 30 masked people were allowed to attend Prince Philip\u2019s funeral a few days later on April 17, and his widow, Queen Elizabeth II, had to sit alone inside the chapel at Windsor Castle, as her extended family weren\u2019t part of her own household. Indeed, the pace is so slow that indoor dining isn\u2019t <\/span>scheduled to restart until May 17<\/span><\/a>, at the earliest.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

RELATED:\u00a0Desperately trying to outrun COVID in India<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Neudorf would like provinces, including Saskatchewan, to adopt more nuanced, paced reopening plans like those of Britain, using indicators such as hospital capacity, test positivity rates and case counts. In addition to looking at vaccination rates, he says, officials should ask themselves whether all those indicators are coming down; if so, \u201cthen we can start moving to relax restrictions.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Like Neudorf, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada\u2019s chief public health officer, has cautioned against relying one only one metric, such as vaccinations. At the end of April, she announced a reopening indicator of her own: <\/span>the 75-20 metric<\/span><\/a>. Public Health Agency of Canada modelling <\/span>showed that restrictions could be safely lifted after 75 per cent of adults have received their first doses and 20 per cent have received their second doses of vaccines, but only as long as \u201cadequate tests, trace [and] isolate capacity and individual precautions are maintained,\u201d Tam explained. Vaccine data crunching by <\/span>economist Trevor Tombe puts a possible date for reaching that 75-20 mark<\/span><\/a> around Canada Day, though burgeoning deliveries are <\/span>pushing it even earlier<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Though lots of Canadians are impatient, Trudeau emphasized the need for multi-faceted reopening programs like those favoured by Neudorf and Tam. \u201cIf we can do this, then we can have a more normal, better summer,\u201d the Prime Minister said on Tuesday. \u201cAnd a one-dose summer sets us up for a two-dose fall when we\u2019ll be able to talk about going back to school, back to work and back to more normality.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

For provinces like Alberta, which has a per capita case rate more than double that of all of Canada, it could take a while for those metrics to improve to a point where restrictions could ease. Meanwhile, in hard-hit Ontario, <\/span>Dr. David Williams, <\/span>the chief medical officer of health, said<\/span><\/a> that, while he doesn\u2019t have\u00a0 \u201cdefinite metric\u201d for reopening, he posited that a case count of below 1,000 per day may be needed, far below the daily average of more than 3,000 cases posted that same day.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even as reopening plans are being unveiled, Neudorf cautions that officials should avoid playing<\/span>\u00a0into the expectation that \u201cat some magic number or date, COVID is just going to disapp<\/a>ear from the face of the planet.\u201d The virus keeps delivering surprises, he notes, \u201cso it\u2019s good to make sure we keep a certain amount of humility in our predictions. It\u2019s getting that balance right of how much can you say to give people hope without running into huge margins of error.\u201d<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n