{"id":249627,"date":"2021-05-14T14:05:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-14T11:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/opinion-why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick\/"},"modified":"2021-05-14T14:05:00","modified_gmt":"2021-05-14T11:05:00","slug":"opinion-why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/opinion-why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a40733b1e272\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a40733b1e272\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/opinion-why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick\/#Market-timers_are_running_with_the_bulls_but_quick_to_turn_bearish_reflecting_weak_support_for_current_stock_prices\" >Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish, reflecting weak support for current stock prices<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/opinion-why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick\/#Mark_Hulbert\" >Mark Hulbert<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Market-timers_are_running_with_the_bulls_but_quick_to_turn_bearish_reflecting_weak_support_for_current_stock_prices\"><\/span>\n  Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish, reflecting weak support for current stock prices<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\">\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000269577\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market\u2019s recent decline has run its course \u2014 for now.<\/p>\n<p> That\u2019s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the Nasdaq<br \/>\n        NDX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598364\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+0.83%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it\u2019s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       For now, the recent decline <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday\u2019s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average<br \/>\n        DJIA,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598065\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+1.29%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500<br \/>\n        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+1.22%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq Composite<br \/>\n        COMP,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598365\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+0.72%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       was down 7.8%.<\/p>\n<p>Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a>letter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as Apr. 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        renoImageFormat-\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:73.671875%;\" data-mobile-ratio=\"73.671875%\" data-layout-ratio=\"73.671875%\" data-subtype=\"\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-337812?width=140&amp;size=1.357370095440085 140w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-337812?width=540&amp;size=1.357370095440085 540w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-337812?width=620&amp;size=1.357370095440085 620w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-337812?width=700&amp;size=1.357370095440085 700w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-337812?width=860&amp;size=1.357370095440085 860w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-337812?width=1260&amp;size=1.357370095440085 1260w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 140px) 100px,\n(max-width: 540px) 500px,\n(max-width: 620px) 580px,\n(max-width: 700px) 660px,\n(max-width: 860px) 820px,\n1260px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-337812?width=620&amp;size=1.357370095440085\" data-enlarge=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-337812?width=1260&amp;size=1.357370095440085\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits \u2014 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 \u2014 0.3% \u2014 in which the HNNSI\u2019s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.<\/p>\n<p>To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month\u2019s time.<\/p>\n<p>Why, then, haven\u2019t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI\u2019s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.<\/p>\n<p>The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market\u2019s \u201cwall of worry\u201d became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.<\/p>\n<p>The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.<\/p>\n<p>A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally\u2019s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we\u2019ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally \u2014 while it lasts.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p><em>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at <\/em><em>mark@hulbertratings.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Plus:<\/strong> There is a \u2018super sale\u2019 in Big Tech and other \u2018high-quality\u2019 stocks, says this fund manager<\/p>\n<p><strong>Also read: <\/strong>Wall Street\u2019s \u2018Big Lie\u2019: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Mark Hulbert\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mark_Hulbert\"><\/span>Mark Hulbert<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-741D-098403D67417%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick &#8221; Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish, reflecting weak support for current stock prices Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market\u2019s recent decline has run its course \u2014 for now. That\u2019s because these market timers, especially those who&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":222381,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-249627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=249627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249627\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/222381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=249627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=249627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=249627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}