{"id":251170,"date":"2021-05-16T23:40:44","date_gmt":"2021-05-16T20:40:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/338canada-the-conservatives-great-big-climate-problem\/"},"modified":"2021-05-16T23:40:44","modified_gmt":"2021-05-16T20:40:44","slug":"338canada-the-conservatives-great-big-climate-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/338canada-the-conservatives-great-big-climate-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"#338Canada: The Conservatives’ great big climate problem"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#338Canada: The Conservatives’ great big climate problem<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Philippe J. Fournier: New data shows that on climate change, Conservative supporters are way out of step with voters from every other major party in Canada\n <\/div>\n
\n Debate surrounding climate change and the urgency to implement policies to act upon it is increasingly becoming a partisan issue in Canada. Opinion polls have indicated a growing divide in support for initiatives regarding climate change. In 2020, EKOS Research Associate\u2019s Frank Graves wrote in\u00a0Northern Populism<\/a> that \u201cin 2015, the gap between conservatives and liberals on climate change was 12 points (21 per cent versus nine per cent). This has burgeoned to 36 points (43 per cent versus seven per cent).\u201d<\/p>\n

This gap doesn\u2019t app<\/a>ear to be narrowing.<\/p>\n

Fresh data provided by the latest poll from the\u00a0Angus Reid Institute<\/a>\u00a0(ARI) shows Conservative voters stand alone in believing that climate change should not be a priority for the federal government. According to Angus Reid\u2019s data, many Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) voters do not even consider climate change as a serious threat to the planet, unlike voters from all other major federal parties.<\/p>\n

Let us look at the data. To the question: \u201cHow much of a threat, if any, do you think climate change poses for planet Earth?\u201d, a clear majority of the poll\u2019s respondents (74 per cent) answered climate change is either a \u201cserious\u201d or a \u201cvery serious\u201d threat.<\/p>\n

However, when breaking down the crosstabs along the respondents\u2019 2019 federal vote, ARI measured that, among Conservative voters, only 41 per cent agreed climate change is a serious threat, but over 90 per cent of Liberal, NDP, BQ, and Green voters perceived it as such. Here is the breakdown per 2019 federal vote:<\/p>\n



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Moreover, 28 per cent of Conservative voters believe that climate change is not a threat at all, a view shared by a measly one per cent of voters from other parties.<\/p>\n

Additionally, while roughly nine of 10 non-Conservative voters agree that \u201cclimate change is a fact and mostly caused by human activities\u201d (which is the actual scientific consensus on the matter), only about a third of Conservative voters acknowledge it. Rather, a plurality of CPC voters (43 per cent) believes that \u201cclimate change is a fact and is mostly caused by natural changes and cycles,\u201d a popular dog whistle catch phrase dear to many internet climate deniers. (\u201cBut the climate has always been changing!\u201d)<\/p>\n



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The Angus Reid poll was fielded only days after the release of Chrystia Freeland\u2019s first budget in mid-April, which included several policies and spending aimed at reducing Canada\u2019s carbon footprint in the coming decade. Whether those policies will actually work in reaching those targets is uncertain: From Kyoto to Copenhagen, Canada has had a poor record of meeting emission targets, so some skepticism is understandably warranted.<\/p>\n

To wit, Angus Reid asked its panel whether Canada should in fact increase efforts to reach its 2030 targets of lowering carbon emissions by 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels as per the Paris Climate Agreement.\u00a0Among the poll\u2019s respondents, a majority of Canadians (56 per cent) believes the government should increase efforts to reach those targets, 25 per cent say Canada should stay the course even if it means falling short, while 19 per cent would prefer to see the government decrease efforts and not worry about the targets.<\/p>\n

However, once again, the numbers show a deep polarization in the results between CPC voters and non-CPC voters:


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The results among non-CPC voters are stunningly similar, all within a reasonable margin of each other considering the size of the poll\u2019s subsamples.<\/p>\n

Yet, among Conservative voters, half of respondents answered that Canada should \u201cdecrease its efforts and not worry about the 2030 targets\u201d, a view shared by only 2 per cent of voters from other major parties.<\/p>\n

Whatever the merits and shortcomings of Erin O\u2019Toole\u2019s proposed \u201cCarbon Rewards Program\u201d, such poll results clearly demonstrate why a significant portion of the pushback again O\u2019Toole\u2019s plan came from conservative friendly circles: Why would your supporters agree to such a complex\u2014and probably costly\u2014plan if many within your own rank do not even hear (or choose not to hear) the alarm bells climate scientists have been ringing for decades?<\/p>\n

Yet, the mere fact that the CPC leader does address the need to reduce carbon emission via government-mandated levies (i.e. taxes) is a sign O\u2019Toole is at least trying to reach voters outside his own base. From a purely political and math-based standpoint, this strategy has merits. According to the 338Canada federal projections<\/a>, O\u2019Toole could afford to lose 15 points in Alberta and the Prairies if he can grab five or six points away from the Liberals in Ontario and Quebec. The net result of this hypothetical shift would be a clear gain of Conservative seats in the House of Commons.<\/p>\n

Whether O\u2019Toole\u2019s climate strategy will work still is up in the air. The pandemic and the vaccine rollout will probably be top of mind for many Canadians and occupy most media<\/a> cycles throughout the summer months. Besides, current voting intentions show the CPC has indeed lost close to 15 points in Alberta<\/a> (compared to the 2019 election results), but has yet to gain any ground in Central Canada.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Erin O\u2019Toole finds himself in climate purgatory. Data from this poll suggests that if conservative voters in this country ever embrace serious policies to curb Canada\u2019s carbon emissions, they will do so kicking and screaming. But unless O\u2019Toole manages to convince his faithful base of supporters that there are no plausible path to victory without a credible environmental plan, the CPC could remain on opposition benches for years to come.<\/p>\n

Follow 338Canada on Twitter<\/a>.
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