{"id":262133,"date":"2021-05-28T19:37:31","date_gmt":"2021-05-28T16:37:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/climate-change-makes-west-nile-virus-outbreaks-plausible-in-uk\/"},"modified":"2021-05-28T19:37:31","modified_gmt":"2021-05-28T16:37:31","slug":"climate-change-makes-west-nile-virus-outbreaks-plausible-in-uk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/climate-change-makes-west-nile-virus-outbreaks-plausible-in-uk\/","title":{"rendered":"#Climate change makes West Nile virus outbreaks ‘plausible’ in UK"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#Climate change makes West Nile virus outbreaks ‘plausible’ in UK<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

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\"Climate
\n The common house mosquito (Culex pipiens) can transmit the West Nile virus. Credit: Fabrizio Montarsi, CC BY 3.0
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Climate change will make outbreaks of West Nile virus more likely in the UK within the next 20-30 years, scientists say.<\/p>\n


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West Nile virus is spread by mosquitoes and has no vaccine. Most people have no symptoms, but it can cause serious neurological disease.<\/p>\n

Scientists from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS) and the University of Glasgow developed a new model to determine the risk of a West Nile virus outbreak in the UK.<\/p>\n

They found the risk is low for the next two to three decades, but will increase as temperatures rise.<\/p>\n

Dr. Steven White, a theoretical ecologist at UKCEH, said: “Knowing if or when a new disease will affect us is vitally important.<\/p>\n

“West Nile virus is currently absent in the UK, but we do harbor the Culex pipiens<\/i> mosquito, which can transmit the disease and potentially lead to spill-over into humans.<\/p>\n

“West Nile virus is now endemic in Italy and there have been outbreaks in Germany, so it is moving into more temperate climates.<\/p>\n

“Our model shows that the risk will steadily increase and that future outbreaks are plausible in the UK.”<\/p>\n

The team’s mathematical model looked at the effects of temperature on the biological processes affecting the Culex pipiens<\/i> mosquito population in the UK. They were able to capture how these seasonal changes might interact with faster replication of the virus under higher temperatures to drive outbreaks.<\/p>\n

Dr. David Ewing from BioSS, formerly a UKCEH Ph.D. student when most of the research was carried out, said: “Our model shows the predicted risk of an outbreak increases substantially if the biting season goes on longer, or if new viral strains are introduced that replicate at a higher rate than the ones already studied.<\/p>\n

“Most other app<\/a>roaches are simplified, but we’ve built in complex biological relationships. This model could be adapted to look at other viruses and diseases, or other mosquito or insect species.”<\/p>\n

Dr. Ewing says the study shouldn’t be cause for alarm, but to help the UK prepare. “While there’s relatively little immedia<\/a>te danger, we can take steps to prepare for future outbreaks.<\/p>\n

This could be as simple as ensuring doctors are aware of the symptoms, testing and who’s most at risk of becoming seriously ill.”<\/p>\n

The research was reported in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface<\/i>.<\/p>\n\n

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Rising temperatures could shift US West Nile virus transmission<\/a>\n <\/div>\n

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\n More information:<\/strong>
\n David A. Ewing et al, A novel approach for predicting risk of vector-borne disease establishment in marginal temperate environments under climate change: West Nile virus in the UK, Journal of The Royal Society Interface<\/i> (2021). DOI: 10.1098\/rsif.2021.0049<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

Provided by
\n UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology<\/p>\n

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Citation<\/strong>:
\n Climate change makes West Nile virus outbreaks ‘plausible’ in UK (2021, May 28)
\n retrieved 29 May 2021
\n from https:\/\/phys.org\/news<\/a>\/2021-05-climate-west-nile-virus-outbreaks.html<\/p>\n

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\n part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n