{"id":262856,"date":"2021-05-30T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-30T20:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/2-bitcoin-price-indicators-suggest-btc-has-not-bottomed-yet\/"},"modified":"2021-05-30T23:00:00","modified_gmt":"2021-05-30T20:00:00","slug":"2-bitcoin-price-indicators-suggest-btc-has-not-bottomed-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/2-bitcoin-price-indicators-suggest-btc-has-not-bottomed-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"# 2 Bitcoin price indicators suggest BTC has not bottomed yet"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a26b538ab5b1\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a26b538ab5b1\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/2-bitcoin-price-indicators-suggest-btc-has-not-bottomed-yet\/#Skew_the_professional_%E2%80%9Cfear_and_greed%E2%80%9D_indicator\" >Skew: the professional &#8220;fear and greed&#8221; indicator<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/2-bitcoin-price-indicators-suggest-btc-has-not-bottomed-yet\/#Active_Bitcoin_supply_signals_that_weak_hands_need_to_cool_off\" >Active Bitcoin supply signals that weak hands need to cool off<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># 2 Bitcoin price indicators suggest BTC has not bottomed yet <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-5a136f3a>Traders are using various strategies to determine whether Bitcoin price has bottomed, but on-chain activity and derivatives data hint that the situation remains precarious.<\/p>\n<p>Has Bitcoin price bottomed yet? According to @noshitcoins, derivatives and on-chain data signal that further downside could be in store.<\/p>\n<p>Traders have been trying to time the much-anticipated trend reversal ever since Bitcoin (BTC) initiated its 48% correction to $30,000 on May 12. The move culminated with $12 billion worth of futures long positions being liquidated, and to date, trader&#8217;s confidence remains somewhat dampened.<\/p>\n<p>The community started looking everywhere for trend reversal signs, including technical patterns, United States CPI inflation data and Bitcoin exchange deposits. For example, some analysts stated that a higher high, followed by a move above $40,000, would be enough.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We need to make a new Higher High to confirm a local bottom.<\/p>\n<p>Reclaim 40k and we can start talking about a sustained move back to 50k.<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/myeWXIYWpp\">pic.twitter.com\/myeWXIYWpp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Inmortal (@inmortalcrypto) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/inmortalcrypto\/status\/1396826953164931075?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 24, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>However, two days later, Bitcoin managed to break the $40,000, although the move didn&#8217;t last for more than six hours. Meanwhile, other traders inferred that a retest of the $30,000 bottom is needed before a bounce.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BTC<\/a> is forming a Descending Broadening wedge here. It&#8217;s bullish but there are two possible scenarios.<br \/>Green: breaking the resistance and maintain the uptrend.<br \/>Red: retest the bottom of the wedge (~30k) and bounce from there. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8L26kQvf7X\">pic.twitter.com\/8L26kQvf7X<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Johnny Woo | Never DM you for Money (@j0hnnyw00) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/j0hnnyw00\/status\/1397075468038324229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 25, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Although there could be empirical evidence or even logic backing those statements, market prices don&#8217;t always react to external <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> or previous chart formations. Unlike stocks, Bitcoin investors can&#8217;t rely on commonly used valuation multiples or even comparables.<\/p>\n<p>Sure, a digital store of value is one use case, but at the same time, it is uncensorable and easily transferable. Furthermore, some users value Bitcoin&#8217;s peer-to-peer fiat convertibility outside of KYC-regulated exchanges. Another factor to consider is the investors who are increasing their Bitcoin portfolio due to the lack of correlation with traditional financial assets.<\/p>\n<p>This panacea of diverse and sometimes conflicting narratives creates barriers for modeling the market&#8217;s potential, adoption status, and even measuring the effectiveness of recent developments. <\/p>\n<p>Some will cheer for Tesla and large companies building up Bitcoin reserves, while others couldn&#8217;t care less about who&#8217;s holding BTC and instead focus on the challenges of scalability and fungibility.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Skew_the_professional_%E2%80%9Cfear_and_greed%E2%80%9D_indicator\"><\/span>Skew: the professional &#8220;fear and greed&#8221; indicator<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Call options allow the buyer to acquire Bitcoin at a fixed price when the contract expires. Put options, on the other hand, provide insurance for buyers and protect against price drops.<\/p>\n<p>Whenever market makers and professional traders lean bullish, they will demand a higher premium on call (buy) options. This trend will cause a negative 25% delta skew indicator. On the other hand, if downside protection is more costly, the skew indicator will become positive.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-05\/0a0dad1e-4b40-4e8e-a2c1-c386c0df45e4.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A 25% delta skew oscillating between a negative 10%, and a positive 10% is usually deemed neutral. This balanced situation held until May 16, as Bitcoin lost the critical $47,000 support, which had held for 76 days.<\/p>\n<p>As the markets deteriorated, so did the 25% delta skew indicator, and the cost of protective options spiked. Therefore, until the metric establishes a more neutral pattern nearer to the 5% level, it seems premature to call the market bottom.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Active_Bitcoin_supply_signals_that_weak_hands_need_to_cool_off\"><\/span>Active Bitcoin supply signals that weak hands need to cool off<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Traders also monitor the number of BTC that have been active lately. This indicator can&#8217;t be deemed bullish or bearish by itself as it does not provide information on how old the involved addresses are.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-05\/7af82903-fbb5-4832-9faa-cc611b545b06.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Active supply that transacted at least once in the trailing 30 days. Source: CoinMetrics<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The 500% price rally from Oct. 1, 2020, and the $64,900 peak on April 14, 2021, caused a major increase in the supply moved in the months before the rally. When this metric presents a sharp decrease, it indicates that investors are no longer interested in participating at the current price level.<\/p>\n<p>There are currently 2.2 million BTC active over the past 30 days, and this is significantly higher than levels seen before Oct. 2020. <\/p>\n<p>As things currently stand, traders should not be so that Bitcoin has bottomed, at least until the market no longer has relevant activity surrounding the sub-$40,000 level. <\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>author<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/2-bitcoin-price-indicators-suggest-btc-has-not-bottomed-yet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# 2 Bitcoin price indicators suggest BTC has not bottomed yet &#8221; Traders are using various strategies to determine whether Bitcoin price has bottomed, but on-chain activity and derivatives data hint that the situation remains precarious. Has Bitcoin price bottomed yet? According to @noshitcoins, derivatives and on-chain data signal that further downside could be in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":262857,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMDUvNTg2MzQ2ZDItMmU0MS00ZDRmLWExODctMzk4NTQ3YWZhN2VlLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,81209,74937,74863,74860,75012,74939,73785],"class_list":["post-262856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-derivatives","tag-market-analysis","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=262856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262856\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/262857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=262856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=262856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=262856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}