{"id":270019,"date":"2021-06-09T09:46:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-09T06:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/the-ecb-decision-is-coming-heres-what-analysts-expect\/"},"modified":"2021-06-09T09:46:00","modified_gmt":"2021-06-09T06:46:00","slug":"the-ecb-decision-is-coming-heres-what-analysts-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-ecb-decision-is-coming-heres-what-analysts-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  The ECB decision is coming. Here\u2019s what analysts expect."},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2c135168e57\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2c135168e57\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-ecb-decision-is-coming-heres-what-analysts-expect\/#Steve_Goldstein\" >Steve Goldstein<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  The ECB decision is coming. Here\u2019s what analysts expect.<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\">\n<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\">\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000298006\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Though inflation in the eurozone isn\u2019t even half that of the U.S., the central bank debate is the same on both sides of the Atlantic \u2014 when the rate of bond purchases should slow.<\/p>\n<p> As with the Federal Reserve, most expect any tapering decision from the European Central Bank to wait for a few months. The ECB\u2019s decision on the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, which in May was used to buy \u20ac80.7 billion of bonds, is the detail traders will focus on when the interest-rate decision is announced at 1:45 p.m. Central European time (7:45 a.m. Eastern) on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds her press conference at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, when U.S. consumer-price data will be released.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetDynamic\n            inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetDynamic\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dynamic-inset-container article__inset__dynamic\">\n<div id=\"chart_664daf1708ccbc365f4ec302\"><\/div>\n<p><script>\n(function () {\n  function createChart() {\n    var CHART_ENGINE_NAME = 'CustomDataChart_MARKETWATCH_0_8_60';\n    var definitions = {};\n    function loadScript(src) {\n      var script = document.createElement('script');\n      script.setAttribute('src', src);\n      document.body.appendChild(script);\n    }\n    function checkIfScriptsAreComplete() {\n      for (var key in definitions) {\n        if 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'',\n        pageSource: pageSource ? pageSource.getAttribute('content') : ''\n      }\n      window.NREUM.addPageAction(\n        'chartlos:' + action,\n        data\n      );\n    }\n  }\n  if (document.readyState === 'complete') {\n    createChart();\n  } else {\n    window.addEventListener('load', createChart, false);\n  }\n})();\n<\/script><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Economists at Morgan Stanley led by Jacob Neil say the ECB will keep the current pace of purchases. Financing conditions have tightened, as not only has the yield on German bunds<br \/>\n        TMBMKDE-10Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">-0.230%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       risen but the spread to fixed-income securities of periphery countries like Italy<br \/>\n        TMBMKIT-10Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">0.826%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       and Spain<br \/>\n        TMBMKES-10Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">0.414%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       has widened. With the European Union now issuing bonds to fund the Next Generation recovery fund, an ECB decision to taper would lead to further tightening conditions.<\/p>\n<p>The EU COVID-19 vaccination program, the Morgan Stanley economists add, is still less than half way to the target, and the EU recovery fund money still hasn\u2019t been doled out. At the current rate, the full \u20ac1.85 trillion of PEPP capacity would be exhausted in February.<\/p>\n<p>Economists at Credit Suisse led by Neville Hill, by contrast, articulate a more contrarian case that the ECB will cut the monthly purchase rate on the PEPP to \u20ac60 billion, though the bank still expects the full program will be used. PEPP, they note, wasn\u2019t designed to bring core inflation up, but rather to keep it from falling further \u2014 which has h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ened. With key economic indicators improving, they expect the ECB \u201cto slacken its leash on the bond market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEither way,\u201d add economists at Deutsche Bank led by Mark Wall, \u201cwe expect the ECB to argue June is an operational decision on the appropriate pace of purchases, not a strategic decision to keep or exit PEPP.\u201d The Deutsche Bank forecast is for the current bond purchase rate to be maintained, in what they see as a \u201cclose call.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Stoxx Europe 600<br \/>\n        SXXP,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599654\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-0.04%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       stock-market index, in dollar terms, has slightly outperformed the U.S. S&amp;P 500<br \/>\n        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+0.02%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       with a 14% rise in 2021. The euro<br \/>\n        EURUSD,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210561242\/realtime\/sampled\" class=\"positive\">+0.07%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       has been steady vs. the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what analysts at other firms say:<\/p>\n<p>Berenberg: \u201cBeyond the decision on the projected pace of asset purchases in the next three months, markets ought to watch this Thursday whether the ECB: hints that it could use the inbuilt flexibility of its key purchase program to still slow the pace over the summer at short notice, or without any notice, in response to growth and inflation, provides clearer clues what it would need to see in financing conditions or economic data to start tapering in September, and\/or raises its 2023 staff projection for headline inflation from 1.4% to beyond 1.5% (unlikely).\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Evercore: \u201cWe expect only minimal changes to the\u00a0ECB\u00a0staff projections,\u00a0and we think Lagarde will emphasize the\u00a0ECB\u2019s intention to look through the near-term bump in inflation given weak underlying inflation dynamics.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>Nomura: \u201cWe expect the ECB to revise its 2021 inflation forecast substantially to the upside, but to show a medium-term inflation forecast still well below target. That, together with rising sovereign bond yields, should be enough to keep the ECB\u2019s commentary at this meeting fairly dovish.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>RBC Capital Markets: \u201cWhilst the economic data is improving, along with the health crisis, the recovery is in its infancy and rising inflation is still seen as transitory by ECB officials. Moreover, the bond market selloff and an appreciating euro remain a risk to the ECB\u2019s pledge to keep \u2018favorable financing conditions\u2019 and we think the ECB will not be convinced that the time is ripe to slow the pace of purchases, a view that is also supported by the recent dovish shift in ECB communication.\u201d<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Steve Goldstein\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Steve_Goldstein\"><\/span>Steve Goldstein<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-748C-164DF943BC31%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# The ECB decision is coming. Here\u2019s what analysts expect. &#8221; Though inflation in the eurozone isn\u2019t even half that of the U.S., the central bank debate is the same on both sides of the Atlantic \u2014 when the rate of bond purchases should slow. As with the Federal Reserve, most expect any tapering decision&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":270020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-270019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=270019"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270019\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/270020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=270019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=270019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=270019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}