{"id":274681,"date":"2021-06-15T02:40:48","date_gmt":"2021-06-14T23:40:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/bitcoin-derivatives-data-shows-pro-traders-ignored-todays-41k-pump\/"},"modified":"2021-06-15T02:40:48","modified_gmt":"2021-06-14T23:40:48","slug":"bitcoin-derivatives-data-shows-pro-traders-ignored-todays-41k-pump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-derivatives-data-shows-pro-traders-ignored-todays-41k-pump\/","title":{"rendered":"# Bitcoin derivatives data shows pro traders ignored today\u2019s $41K pump"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2ababb36759\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2ababb36759\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-derivatives-data-shows-pro-traders-ignored-todays-41k-pump\/#In_bear_markets_top_traders_act_with_caution\" >In bear markets, top traders act with caution<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-derivatives-data-shows-pro-traders-ignored-todays-41k-pump\/#The_3-month_futures_premium_is_neutral\" >The 3-month futures premium is neutral<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-derivatives-data-shows-pro-traders-ignored-todays-41k-pump\/#The_options_skew_is_no_longer_signaling_fear\" >The options skew is no longer signaling fear<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Bitcoin derivatives data shows pro traders ignored today\u2019s $41K pump <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-5a136f3a>Sometimes all Bitcoin (BTC) needs to pump 10% is a positive remark from someone like Elon Musk. <\/p>\n<p>The Tesla CEO has been pointed to as the culprit for the recent downturn after the company\u2019s May 12 announcement explaining that it would no longer accept Bitcoin payments due to environmental concerns. Musk followed up by saying that he was looking into other cryptocurrencies that required 99% less energy consumption.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, on June 13, the situation reversed as Musk reassured the public that Tesla did not sell any additional Bitcoin. The post also said that the electric-car producer would resume taking BTC payments as soon as its Bitcoin mining relied on a minimum of 50% clean energy.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"In_bear_markets_top_traders_act_with_caution\"><\/span>In bear markets, top traders act with caution<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>While retail investors and algorithmic trading bots jump into action as soon as bullish or bearish signals and <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> flash, top traders tend to act more with more caution. Those who have been around the crypto markets long enough know that positive news might end up being ignored or severely downplayed in bear markets.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, even potentially negative news seems to have little to no impact during bull runs. For example, on Sept. 26, 2020, Kucoin was hacked for $150 million. The following week, on Oct. 1, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged BitMEX for operating an unregistered trading platform and violating Anti-Money Laundering regulations.<\/p>\n<p>Two weeks later, police reportedly questioned the founder of OKEx, forcing the exchange to suspend crypto withdrawals. Had this <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/watch-movies-tv-seriess\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Watch Movies &amp; TV Series\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">series<\/a> of negative news h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ened while Bitcoin was flat or in a bearish phase, the price would have undoubtedly have stalled during a bear market.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-06\/343bde84-ec07-4d2a-9ef7-9be36f0bbbec.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin price at Coinbase in USD, Sept. 2020. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As shown above, Bitcoin barely had any negative impact in late September and October 2020. In fact, by the end of November 2020, Bitcoin was up 74% in two months. This is the main reason why top traders tend to ignore positive news during bear markets and vice-versa.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_3-month_futures_premium_is_neutral\"><\/span>The 3-month futures premium is neutral<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A futures contract seller will usually demand a price premium to regular spot exchanges. This situation is not exclusive to crypto markets and happens in every derivatives market because in addition to the exchange liquidity risk, the seller is postponing settlement and this results in a higher price.<\/p>\n<p>The 3-month futures premium (basis rate) usually trades at a 5% to 15% annualized premium in healthy markets. When futures are trading below the regular spot exchange price, it signals a short-term bearish sentiment.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-06\/4b268f01-c602-462e-b9ac-4527780a8fbf.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Huobi 3-month Bitcoin futures basis. Source: Skew<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As shown above, the future basis has been below 11% since May 20 and flirting with bearish territory on multiple occasions as it tested 5%. The current level indicates a neutral position from top traders.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_options_skew_is_no_longer_signaling_fear\"><\/span>The options skew is no longer signaling fear<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options side-by-side. It will turn positive when the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options. <\/p>\n<p>The opposite holds when market makers are bullish and this causes the 25% delta skew indicator to enter the negative range.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-06\/7157804d-fda4-4058-a0ad-496bd9179e61.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The above chart confirms that top traders, including arbitrage desks and market markers, are currently uncomfortable with Bitcoin price as the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher. However, the current 7% positive skew is far from the 20% exaggerated fear seen in late May.<\/p>\n<p>Derivatives markets show no evidence of top traders getting excited about the recent $40,000 hike. On the bright side, there is room for leverage buyers to mount positions. Stronger upswings usually occur when investors are least expecting, and the current scenario seems to be a perfect example.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-derivatives-data-shows-pro-traders-ignored-today-s-41k-pump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Bitcoin derivatives data shows pro traders ignored today\u2019s $41K pump &#8221; Sometimes all Bitcoin (BTC) needs to pump 10% is a positive remark from someone like Elon Musk. The Tesla CEO has been pointed to as the culprit for the recent downturn after the company\u2019s May 12 announcement explaining that it would no longer&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":274682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMDYvOWJkNGFkNzItNjk1ZS00MzUzLWJlZDAtZjJhNDE5N2I2MGQ3LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74972,74937,74982,74863,74860,75012,75846,74939,73785],"class_list":["post-274681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-futures","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc-markets","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-derivatives","tag-futures","tag-market-analysis","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=274681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274681\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/274682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=274681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=274681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=274681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}