{"id":276012,"date":"2021-06-16T13:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-16T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/here-are-the-known-knowns-and-known-unknowns-heading-into-the-fed-meeting\/"},"modified":"2021-06-16T13:30:00","modified_gmt":"2021-06-16T10:30:00","slug":"here-are-the-known-knowns-and-known-unknowns-heading-into-the-fed-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/here-are-the-known-knowns-and-known-unknowns-heading-into-the-fed-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  Here are the known knowns and known unknowns heading into the Fed meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a4192b0386fd\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a4192b0386fd\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/here-are-the-known-knowns-and-known-unknowns-heading-into-the-fed-meeting\/#Critical_information_for_the_trading_day\" >Critical information for the trading day<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/here-are-the-known-knowns-and-known-unknowns-heading-into-the-fed-meeting\/#Steve_Goldstein\" >Steve Goldstein<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  Here are the known knowns and known unknowns heading into the Fed meeting<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Critical_information_for_the_trading_day\"><\/span>\n  Critical information for the trading day<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\">\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000307376\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       It\u2019s time to channel the former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=REWeBzGuzCc\" class=\"icon none\">who once said<\/a>, \u201cThere are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns \u2014 the ones we don\u2019t know we don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n<p> As the Federal Reserve gets set to announce its latest monetary policy decision, here are the known knowns.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       There is no chance the Fed will lift interest rates. Even reducing the rate of bond purchases is completely out of bounds. But the decision at 2 p.m. Eastern might carry at least one surprise \u2014 a known unknown, in Rumsfeld parlance \u2014 what the dot plot of economic forecasts says about the timing of a future rate increase, and whether that is slated for 2023 or 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers, says economists are more likely to see 2023 as the date of a first hike, given the strength of the actual economic data that have come in since the last dot plot was released in March. Traders, by contrast, emphasize the signaling aspect of the dot plot, and that Chair Jerome Powell won\u2019t want to step on his own message about keeping policy loose until the U.S. jobs market shows significant recovery.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis split in expectations has the interesting implication that there is a <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> lack of consensus about how the forecasting exercise of the [Summary of Economic Projections] integrates into the new outcomes-based framework,\u201d Duy says.<\/p>\n<p>The Powell press conference will likely be dominated by discussion of when the central bank feels it can reduce the rate of bond purchases. Ellen Gaske, lead economist for G-10 economies at PGIM Fixed Income, says the fourth quarter makes the most sense for the timing of a taper because, by then, the Fed will have answers to key questions, namely whether labor supply increases as extra unemployment benefits expire and schools reopen.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        renoImageFormat-\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:68.4375%;\" data-mobile-ratio=\"68.4375%\" data-layout-ratio=\"68.4375%\" data-subtype=\"photo\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354701?width=140&amp;size=1.461187214611872 140w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354701?width=540&amp;size=1.461187214611872 540w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354701?width=620&amp;size=1.461187214611872 620w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354701?width=700&amp;size=1.461187214611872 700w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354701?width=860&amp;size=1.461187214611872 860w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354701?width=1260&amp;size=1.461187214611872 1260w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 140px) 100px,\n(max-width: 540px) 500px,\n(max-width: 620px) 580px,\n(max-width: 700px) 660px,\n(max-width: 860px) 820px,\n1260px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354701?width=620&amp;size=1.461187214611872\" data-enlarge=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354701?width=1260&amp;size=1.461187214611872\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       As for the unknown unknowns, they would probably come in the form of answers to reporter questions. It\u2019s worth noting this chart, from Bespoke Investment Group, showing the stock market generally sells off as Powell speaks. (Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the market reaction to Powell has been more benign, the Bespoke analysts add.)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tech isn\u2019t keeping pace as economy reopens<\/strong><\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        renoImageFormat-\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:67.265625%;\" data-mobile-ratio=\"67.265625%\" data-layout-ratio=\"67.265625%\" data-subtype=\"photo\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354702?width=140&amp;size=1.48664343786295 140w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354702?width=540&amp;size=1.48664343786295 540w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354702?width=620&amp;size=1.48664343786295 620w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354702?width=700&amp;size=1.48664343786295 700w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354702?width=860&amp;size=1.48664343786295 860w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354702?width=1260&amp;size=1.48664343786295 1260w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 140px) 100px,\n(max-width: 540px) 500px,\n(max-width: 620px) 580px,\n(max-width: 700px) 660px,\n(max-width: 860px) 820px,\n1260px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354702?width=620&amp;size=1.48664343786295\" data-enlarge=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-354702?width=1260&amp;size=1.48664343786295\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Technology<\/a> stocks haven\u2019t kept up with the S&amp;P 500 since September 2020, points out Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist at LPL Financial, which downgraded its view on the tech sector to neutral. Though the sector has strong fundamentals and is innovating rapidly, he argues that cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials and materials will fare better the rest of the year as the economy reopens. A neutral view still means allocating 27% of a portfolio to tech to match its weighting in the S&amp;P 500, he adds.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of tech, Oracle<br \/>\n        ORCL,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/202180826\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-1.19%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       the database software giant, reported stronger-than-forecast fourth-quarter ending May 31 earnings but guided for a weaker-than-expected first quarter due to an increase in investment.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>Shortly after the Senate confirmed Lina Khan as a commissioner to the Federal Trade Commission, President Joe Biden named the tech critic to chair the agency.<\/p>\n<p>Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Geneva, Switzerland for a highly anticipated gathering between two leaders, who have been critical of each other.<\/p>\n<p>ARK Invest disclosed that it purchased DraftKings<br \/>\n        DKNG,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/213120645\/composite\" class=\"negative\">-4.17%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       shares worth $42 million on Tuesday, the same day the short-selling research firm Hindenburg alleged the company\u2019s gambling-technology unit operates in countries where gambling is banned. DraftKings says the subsidiary, SBTech, doesn\u2019t operate in any illegal market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The broader market perspective ahead of the Fed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There probably won\u2019t be much movement before the Fed decision \u2014 stock futures<br \/>\n        ES00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/209948968\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.01%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       were flat \u2014 so here\u2019s a broader perspective of what markets have done. The S&amp;P 500<br \/>\n        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-0.20%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       ended Tuesday at its third-highest level in history, up 90% from the March 2020 lows. Oil futures<br \/>\n        CL.1,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/211629951\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.22%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       ended at the highest level since Oct. 10, 2018.<\/p>\n<p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury<br \/>\n        TMUBMUSD10Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">1.486%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       holding just below 1.50%, is down a quarter point from its Mar. 31 high.<\/p>\n<p>The WSJ dollar index<br \/>\n        BUXX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210673925\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-0.04%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       is up a slender 1% this year. Copper futures<br \/>\n        HG00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210054311\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.20%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       have climbed 24%, while gold futures<br \/>\n        GC00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210034565\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.13%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       have slipped 2% in 2021.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Random reads<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s some infrastructure investment \u2014 in Peru, a 500-year-old bridge<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2021\/jun\/16\/bridge-made-of-string-peruvians-weave-500-year-old-incan-crossing-back-into-place\" class=\"icon none\"> is being rebuilt by weaving.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>No word on their investment proclivities, but crayfish<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/live-news\/20210615-crayfish-take-more-risks-while-on-antidepressants-study-shows\" class=\"icon none\"> take more risks while on antidepressants<\/a>, a study finds. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Want more for the day ahead? Sign up for <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.barrons.com\/newsletters?sub=462\" class=\"icon none\">The Barron\u2019s Daily,<\/a> a morning briefing for investors, including exclusive commentary from Barron\u2019s and MarketWatch writers<\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Steve Goldstein\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Steve_Goldstein\"><\/span>Steve Goldstein<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-74B0-B038DFCE892E%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Here are the known knowns and known unknowns heading into the Fed meeting &#8221; Critical information for the trading day It\u2019s time to channel the former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who once said, \u201cThere are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":276013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-276012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=276012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276012\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/276013"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=276012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=276012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=276012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}