{"id":276294,"date":"2021-06-16T19:33:34","date_gmt":"2021-06-16T16:33:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/the-conservative-party-is-at-odds-with-itself-can-otoole-pull-it-together\/"},"modified":"2021-06-16T19:33:34","modified_gmt":"2021-06-16T16:33:34","slug":"the-conservative-party-is-at-odds-with-itself-can-otoole-pull-it-together","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-conservative-party-is-at-odds-with-itself-can-otoole-pull-it-together\/","title":{"rendered":"#The Conservative Party is at odds with itself. Can O\u2019Toole pull it together?"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#The Conservative Party is at odds with itself. Can O\u2019Toole pull it together?<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Picture a rolling video montage of happ<\/a>y, diverse Canadians, filming themselves on their phones, talking about what they love most about their country. A man puts some Alberta steaks on the grill. A recent immigrant extols the virtues of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. A woman and her daughter sing the national anthem. A guy says he enjoys the sushi in Vancouver. A little kid chimes in: \u201cI love hockey and I love Tim Hortons.\u201d<\/p>\n

These were the scenes that played, on a loop, during breaks at the federal Conservatives\u2019 virtual national convention in March. A year into the pandemic, the patriotic interludes felt surreally off-topic. They also felt emblematic of the positive, inclusive, non-controversial image today\u2019s Conservative Party aspires to\u2014one unshackled from the narratives of hidden social<\/a> agendas, xenophobia or climate change denialism that, fair or not, hurt its chances in the past.<\/p>\n

READ:\u00a0Erin O\u2019Toole starts to define his conservatism<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Leader Erin O\u2019Toole, who took the helm last August with a promise he would expand his party\u2019s \u201cbig blue tent,\u201d has seen a few setbacks in his rebranding effort. The steps he has taken to attract more centrist voters have caused pushback from his base and inspired members of his parliamentary caucus to vent their frustrations. But with so few Canadians currently displaying an appetite for politics, it\u2019s hard to measure the potential payoff of O\u2019Toole\u2019s efforts.<\/p>\n

With a federal election seemingly on the horizon, Maclean\u2019s<\/em> spoke to nearly three dozen partisans and analysts in an effort to understand the Conservative Party\u2019s strategic ambitions and challenges. Sixteen of them\u2014including members of Parliament, senior party officials, regional organizers, electoral district association members, and current and former Parliament Hill staffers\u2014asked not to be named, so they could express their opinions candidly.<\/p>\n

Their collective accounts paint a picture of a party at odds with itself. Though an inner circle that has enormous faith in Erin O\u2019Toole is at pains to deny it, regional and ideological disconnects threaten to undermine his leadership. War room captains are confident in their calculus that a more centrist message will resonate with Canadians, and that some bleeding in Alberta (where Conservatives already enjoy wide margins) will pay dividends in the Greater Toronto Area and Quebec, where they need to make gains to turf the Liberals. But the farther away you get from that war room, the more pessimism you hear from soldiers on the ground.<\/p>\n

For a party so focused on taking controversial issues off the table, it is having a hell of a time quelling controversy within its ranks. For a first-time leader so keen to appear in command, the knives have come out awfully quickly.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

In late September, a month into Erin O\u2019Toole\u2019s tenure, MPs were called into a caucus meeting and shown fresh branding for the Conservative Party of Canada. They went through the exercise of discussing the pros and cons of the new party heraldry, according to one account\u2014then realized it hadn\u2019t really been a consultation when, on their way out the door, staffers handed them hats already embroidered with the new logo. It wasn\u2019t the last time MPs would have to wear O\u2019Toole\u2019s decisions without feeling like they\u2019d had a say.<\/p>\n

It is not unusual for MPs to receive talking points on a policy before having discussed it, one MP says, or for decisions to be leaked to the press before they are relayed to the caucus. Nevertheless, things hit a fever pitch after a pair of incidents this year left some MPs feeling blindsided enough to discuss their options for a coup.<\/p>\n

The first was the January expulsion of Derek Sloan, from whose socially conservative supporters O\u2019Toole had earned considerable down-ballot support in the leadership race he won last August. When O\u2019Toole decided Sloan should be kicked out of caucus after a \u201cpattern\u201d of controversial incidents\u2014including publicly asking if Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam worked \u201cfor Canada or for China\u201d\u2014MPs found themselves backed into a corner. Don\u2019t remove him, and you\u2019re challenging the new boss\u2019s leadership to defend a problematic figure. Do remove him, and you\u2019re antagonizing a large section of the party. They did remove him, and they did anger some\u2014despite Sloan\u2019s obvious issues, several social conservatives say they took his ouster as a rejection of their values.<\/p>\n

The second incident was a bungled rollout of the party\u2019s new environmental policy. After O\u2019Toole promised to scrap the federal carbon tax, his endorsement of carbon pricing this spring came as a shock to almost everyone Maclean\u2019s<\/em> spoke to. The sin was the surprise, a former party official says: \u201cIf you want to get the party to have some sort of different position on climate change, it\u2019s fine\u2014that\u2019s his prerogative as leader\u2014but the way he\u2019s doing it is just building up internal problems.\u201d<\/p>\n

On a Thursday morning in April, several MPs confirm they woke up to a CBC article spelling out the details of a plan they\u2019d never heard of. That day, they spent two hours in a caucus Zoom call venting their concerns to the leader. A Toronto-based organizer who was in Ottawa remembers witnessing the backlash. \u201cPeople were, pardon my French, f\u2013king livid,\u201d the person says. \u201cThere were people high up in the Erin O\u2019Toole leadership campaign, that are still part of the Erin O\u2019Toole leadership world, that didn\u2019t have a hot friggin\u2019 clue that this was coming down.\u201d<\/p>\n

It prompted some caucus members to discuss whether they should trigger a leadership review, one MP says. The conversation didn\u2019t get far, because in a minority Parliament it is impossible to tell when an election might be called\u2014but had there been a majority, the MP says there\u2019d have been \u201cenough anger out there to go down that path.\u201d A second MP characterizes that anger as coming from the \u201cusual guys\u201d\u2014people who hold safe seats and feel comfortable airing their grievances. That MP says tensions died down after a few days, and morale has since improved. In public, MPs have fallen into line.<\/p>\n

READ:\u00a0Imagine a Conservative party led by Rona Ambrose. Where would it be now?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Garnett Genuis, an Alberta MP who agreed to speak on the record, says \u201cwe\u2019re working to bridge those divides\u201d between MPs from different regions. He acknowledges hearing \u201ca lot of different opinions\u201d from constituents on the environmental plan, but signals his support. \u201cI think a lot of people wanted to see us put forward a serious, credible environmental plan that is also compatible with having a strong energy sector.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sloan\u2019s ouster and the carbon tax flip-flop factored into many grassroots Conservatives souring on O\u2019Toole throughout the spring. Especially among social conservatives and in the West, organizers say a sense of futility is setting in. \u201cThe most committed volunteers I have ever seen to this party, and that\u2019s financially as well as in activity, are people in the social conservative movement,\u201d says an organizer in B.C. \u201cIf you\u2019re leaving them feeling like \u2018this isn\u2019t my party anymore,\u2019 it\u2019s a problem.\u201d<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

A bigger problem may be a perception that Erin O\u2019Toole is not long for the leadership. Several well-connected sources say they are already hearing rumblings about who could replace O\u2019Toole after an election loss. Some of them say they are aware of an effort to organize around popular MP Pierre Poilievre. (Poilievre declined an interview.) No one Maclean\u2019s<\/em> spoke to believes O\u2019Toole will hang on to the leadership unless he makes considerable gains.<\/p>\n

In early February, with little explanation, O\u2019Toole removed Poilievre from the prominent finance portfolio position and made him the jobs critic. It was widely seen as a demotion, and one organizer took it as evidence the leader was \u201cafraid of being outshone.\u201d<\/p>\n

Several people with knowledge of Ottawa staffing say those who worked for Peter MacKay\u2019s leadership campaign were explicitly shuffled out. One former Hill staffer says, \u201cI was bluntly told that I was not needed.\u201d A second describes being informed \u201cin no uncertain terms\u201d they would not be involved in the next election campaign. In March, the National Post<\/em> reported allegations that MacKay himself was barred from running in the next election. Though a senior campaign source denies it, saying MacKay made his own decision, the perception, especially in Atlantic Canada, is that MacKay was sidelined. \u201cPotential candidates just don\u2019t think the party would have their back, with the tone that has been left with MacKay,\u201d says one Nova Scotia organizer.<\/p>\n

In April, the Toronto Star<\/em> reported former deputy leader Lisa Raitt had been kicked out of her Milton riding association. \u201cI certainly did not feel that anything that happened there had anything to do with Erin,\u201d she says, adding she regularly texts with the leader. But sources say party members widely assumed otherwise, which contributed to a feeling of distrust that has been difficult to stamp out.<\/p>\n

All of this is \u201crubbish,\u201d the senior campaign source insists. Ed Fast, who supported MacKay, is the new finance critic. Patrick Tuns, who ran get-out-the-vote efforts for MacKay, has the same job for O\u2019Toole. Steve Outhouse, who was Leslyn Lewis\u2019s campaign manager during the leadership race, is deputy chief of staff. People who are complaining are those who \u201cwould love to have jobs and they\u2019re not good at what they do,\u201d the source says. Still, the same person characterizes the team that will lead Conservatives into the next election as \u201cthe same team, by and large,\u201d that handed O\u2019Toole his leadership victory.<\/p>\n

Maclean\u2019s<\/em> requested comment from O\u2019Toole on his troubles with caucus, his response to people already envisioning another leadership race and the pitch he would make to keep disaffected Tories in the fold. In an emailed response, his director of communications, Chelsea Tucker, would only say that their focus is to outline the \u201cclear choice\u201d Canadians will have in the next election\u2014between \u201cmore of the same\u201d from other parties or \u201ca secure future\u201d under O\u2019Toole.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

\"O'Toole<\/p>\n

O\u2019Toole at a press conference in Ottawa in May 2021 (Sean Kilpatrick\/CP)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Ken Boessenkool thinks Erin O\u2019Toole is threading the needle handily. The long-time conservative guru is not optimistic about the party\u2019s electoral prospects, per se\u2014if the Liberals aren\u2019t particularly weak and the NDP isn\u2019t particularly strong, it\u2019s an uphill battle\u2014but he says he\u2019s hopeful about its overall direction. \u201cHe\u2019s got to take off the table some of the more rabid social conservative issues and he needs to have a credible climate change policy,\u201d Boessenkool says. \u201cHe\u2019s doing the work he needs to do to give himself a shot.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both are what one senior strategist calls \u201chygiene issues.\u201d Nobody at Conservative HQ is expecting to win votes from people whose top priority is the environment. But a lack of policy could be a deal-breaker for many more\u2014something Lisa Raitt says she regularly heard at the door in 2019. And while Andrew Scheer struggled to communicate his own socially conservative views, O\u2019Toole is pro-choice and regularly talks about LGBTQ rights. Liberals will have a hard time accusing him of a hidden agenda.<\/p>\n

Those key roadblocks to Conservative support in the GTA seem to have been addressed, says Fraser Macdonald, who is managing the campaign in Pickering\u2013Uxbridge. \u201cI think people are very open to a centre-right pragmatic conservative. That\u2019s [O\u2019Toole\u2019s] brand and how he is being perceived.\u201d<\/p>\n

Polling from the Angus Reid Institute in May found that about half of Conservative voters oppose the environmental plan, and one in five are less likely to support the party again. It also found small but meaningful percentages of people who voted for other parties in 2019 would now be more likely to vote Conservative\u2014including 19 per cent of those who voted for the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois.<\/p>\n

Marc-Andr\u00e9 Leclerc, former chief of staff to Scheer, is keenly aware of how difficult it is for the party to please Quebecers and westerners at the same time. But he says it may be worth it to lose a little support in Alberta and the B.C. Interior if it means picking up seats in Quebec, where the party is gaining ground, and in Ontario. The electoral math is pretty clear: \u201cWe know the rules, so let\u2019s play.\u201d<\/p>\n

The central war room that will crunch those numbers has been built and torn down three times in the past six or seven months, a senior campaign source says, in response to the perceived potential for an election. It has allowed the team to identify problems and patch up holes. They\u2019ve also hired consultants from the U.K. to \u201cmodernize\u201d their approach, especially in an attempt to replicate across-the-pond appeals to blue-collar workers.<\/p>\n

But the farther away you get from headquarters, the more skeptical organizers seem to be. Many see O\u2019Toole\u2019s few positions as disingenuous, a focus group-driven pivot away from his \u201ctrue blue\u201d leadership message. The majority of sources who spoke to Maclean\u2019s<\/em> anonymously say they would consider it a win if the party simply held on to its existing seats.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

In Western Canada, there is an expectation some support will bleed to fringe parties\u2014Maxime Bernier\u2019s People\u2019s Party, which hindered Conservative victories in a handful of ridings in 2019, and the western separatist Maverick Party. Maverick\u2019s leader, Jay Hill, sees opportunity in a \u201cchasm\u201d between O\u2019Toole\u2019s central Canada focus and his core supporters in Alberta. \u201cI\u2019m not saying we\u2019re going to win any seats, and I\u2019m not saying we\u2019re going to be a dramatic threat to the Conservative Party the first time around,\u201d says Hill. \u201cI\u2019m just saying it\u2019s possible, when I see that level of distrust, that sense of betrayal.\u201d<\/p>\n

Preston Manning, who led the Reform movement to major success in its second election in 1993, sees \u201cgrowing alienation\u201d in the West and believes it\u2019s imperative for every major political party to address the roots of that discontent and the growing interest in the secession option. \u201cThese regions have the capacity to really disrupt things if they get completely alienated from the federal system.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, a senior party official in Alberta says though some Conservatives feel disaffected, especially owing to frustrations at the provincial level, most aren\u2019t ready to \u201cthrow the baby out with the bath water.\u201d Only about three of the party\u2019s seats, in urban areas of Alberta, could be at risk in the next election, the official predicts. Maybe five, in a \u201cdisastrous\u201d campaign.<\/p>\n

READ:\u00a0The Conservatives\u2019 great big climate problem: 338Canada<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The mood in British Columbia looks pessimistic, with one organizer expecting a \u201crough time\u201d in the Lower Mainland and another in a Liberal riding saying the election will be a \u201cperfunctory exercise.\u201d Justin Jones, a member of the Prince George\u2013Peace River\u2013Northern Rockies riding association, says he thinks those unhappy with the party\u2019s direction are \u201ca loud minority.\u201d But he, too, thinks the party could lose some support out West\u2014even if it\u2019s in service to a better result overall. In a possible acknowledgement of the need to reach out to B.C., more than half of O\u2019Toole\u2019s public events in 2021 (at least, those advertised to the parliamentary press gallery) have been with chambers of commerce or boards of trade in the province. By contrast, he only participated in one such event in Atlantic Canada.<\/p>\n

Core supporters in the Maritimes say they are feeling forgotten, and seeing a lack of motivation among people who would normally champ at the bit to go door-knocking. One Nova Scotia organizer says \u201cit\u2019s a pretty disengaged group.\u201d Despite the fact that a son of the province, Fred DeLorey, is in charge of the campaign, there has been next to no outreach from O\u2019Toole since he defeated MacKay.<\/p>\n

John Williamson, the MP for New Brunswick Southwest and one of just four Conservatives sitting east of Quebec, says O\u2019Toole is well aware of the malaise around MacKay\u2019s leadership loss, \u201cand to his credit realizes he needs to do more work.\u201d Williamson believes several seats are in play for Conservatives in his own province; although, like everyone else, he can tell where the focus of the party\u2019s HQ is. \u201cI know the attention is often on, particularly, the 416 and the 905 and the races in Quebec,\u201d he says, \u201cbut to win that majority government, it starts in Atlantic Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

It has, by any standard, been an extraordinarily difficult time to be the leader of the Opposition. O\u2019Toole can\u2019t go to backyard BBQs or church basements. He can\u2019t hold a rally. He can barely get airtime on TV.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, polls have consistently put Conservatives within spitting distance of the Liberals. In late May, many pointed to an Abacus Data poll showing the two parties neck-and-neck as a positive sign. The same poll, though, confirmed one of the party\u2019s biggest problems: twice as many Canadians have a negative opinion of O\u2019Toole as have a positive one. Only half of Tory voters like him. Only 29 per cent of Alberta Conservatives do. A former senior official says those numbers are \u201cobjectively bad,\u201d almost impossible to spin. But current campaign staff are convinced Canadians just don\u2019t know the guy yet.<\/p>\n

The only thing that seems to cut through the pandemic noise is the odd social media misstep, like a quickly deleted meme from the main party account that implied Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s ideal summer would have you on a ventilator (an example of the \u201csame old mistakes\u201d that Conservatives seem to make, as one former staffer puts it). That inability to break into the pandemic news<\/a> cycle is holding them back from putting out a platform. \u201cThere is a vision, yes. But releasing that now would be like releasing it into a void,\u201d a senior strategist says. \u201cNo one would hear it. No one would see it. No one would remember it.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the meantime, there\u2019s not a lot to talk about. Several Conservatives are keen to point out that they\u2019ve been able to make hay with criticism of the Liberals\u2019 telecommunications legislation, Bill C-10. One MP says the legislation has \u201cmobilized a lot of us around each other again,\u201d but with no thanks to O\u2019Toole himself, who initially told caucus it would be a \u201cnothing bill.\u201d<\/p>\n

As evidenced by O\u2019Toole\u2019s recent appearances and by what his candidates are saying in boilerplate emails to Maclean\u2019s<\/em>, the talking points are still heavily focused on Trudeau\u2019s handling of the pandemic, a line of attack some sources worry is getting old as vaccination rates rapidly increase. There is also O\u2019Toole\u2019s five-point recovery plan\u2014which is more of an outline, and about as innocuous and easy to agree with as the convention\u2019s \u201cwhy I love Canada\u201d videos.<\/p>\n

Even those sources who are pleased with his leadership so far say they want to see O\u2019Toole come out with a positive message that has more teeth, and that addresses the disconnects within his own party. Why should social conservatives volunteer their energy? Why should his base show up at the polls? Why should swing voters trust him? What, exactly, makes him better than Trudeau?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a fool\u2019s errand to try to predict what could happen in a post-pandemic election campaign. But if Erin O\u2019Toole\u2019s Conservative Party is to stand a chance of convincing the general<\/a> public that it deserves to lead this country\u2014and that its message really will be a positive, inclusive one\u2014it would do well to start persuading its own people.<\/p>\n\n

This article appears in print in the July 2021 issue of<\/em> Maclean\u2019s magazine with the headline, \u201cThe shaky blue tent.\u201d Subscribe to the monthly print magazine here<\/a>.<\/em>
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