{"id":290405,"date":"2021-07-03T21:48:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-03T18:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/is-the-surfside-building-collapse-a-gray-swan-climate-change-event\/"},"modified":"2021-07-03T21:48:00","modified_gmt":"2021-07-03T18:48:00","slug":"is-the-surfside-building-collapse-a-gray-swan-climate-change-event","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/is-the-surfside-building-collapse-a-gray-swan-climate-change-event\/","title":{"rendered":"#: Is the Surfside building collapse a \u2018gray swan\u2019 climate-change event?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a303a5948a05\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a303a5948a05\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/is-the-surfside-building-collapse-a-gray-swan-climate-change-event\/#Its_too_soon_to_declare_a_cause_but_weather_and_climate_experts_see_opportunity_for_a_hard_look_at_coastal_development_and_preparedness\" >It\u2019s too soon to declare a cause, but weather and climate experts see opportunity for a hard look at coastal development and preparedness<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/is-the-surfside-building-collapse-a-gray-swan-climate-change-event\/#Disasters_accumulate\" >Disasters accumulate<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-6'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/is-the-surfside-building-collapse-a-gray-swan-climate-change-event\/#Home_buyers_respond\" >Home buyers respond<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/is-the-surfside-building-collapse-a-gray-swan-climate-change-event\/#Rachel_Koning_Beals\" >Rachel Koning Beals<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#: Is the Surfside building collapse a \u2018gray swan\u2019 climate-change event?<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Its_too_soon_to_declare_a_cause_but_weather_and_climate_experts_see_opportunity_for_a_hard_look_at_coastal_development_and_preparedness\"><\/span>\n  It\u2019s too soon to declare a cause, but weather and climate experts see opportunity for a hard look at coastal development and preparedness<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000323413\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000323413\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Structural engineers believe it will take months to pinpoint the causes of the deadly condominium collapse in Surfside, Fla., just north of Miami. But its location, near what a leading meteorologist calls \u201cone of the world\u2019s capitals of the consequences of global warming\u201d means that climate change as a potential contributing factor shouldn\u2019t be ignored.<\/p>\n<p> South Florida residents \u201cquickly pivot to climate change even if there\u2019s only a small suspicion that it may be contributing to a problem,\u201d according to John Morales, an atmospheric and environmental scientist, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/2021\/06\/in-climate-change-era-was-surfside-collapse-really-an-unpredictable-black-swan-event\/\" class=\"icon none\">writing for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/a>. <\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       \u201cAfter all, increasingly extreme downpours and a higher water table pushed up by the encroaching sea has resulted in more frequent and worsening flash floods,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p>U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm made a connection between the collapse and climate change in the early days of the tragedy and faced criticism from some, first that her timing was \u201cghoulish,\u201d but also that Democrats, in critics\u2019 eyes, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/media\/cnn-biden-energy-secretary-climate-change-surfside-building-collapse\" class=\"icon none\">too readily pin everything on climate change<\/a>. \u00a0President Biden, visiting the site, said he doesn\u2019t have any \u201cfirm proof\u201d on what caused the collapse but that there was  \u201crational speculation,\u201d including \u201cwhether or not rising sea levels had impact.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For Morales, a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and\u00a0chief meteorologist\u00a0for WTVJ NBC6-TV in Miami, it\u2019s too easy to dismiss catastrophes, including Surfside, as <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Black_swan_theory\" class=\"icon none\">\u201cblack swan\u201d<\/a> events that can\u2019t be fully planned for. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Opinion:<\/strong> Scientists now believe Antarctica is headed for a climate-change tipping point by 2060<\/p>\n<p>Increasingly, he said, extreme weather and climate change must be regarded as \u201cgray swan\u201d events, meaning some clues to the event exist that may evolve with data and analysis, but they typically require serious attention right now. That\u2019s based, he said, on what is already known about the effects of rising seas and storm-packed hurricane seasons.  <\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetPullQuote\n            inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetPullQuote\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"wsj-article-pullquote article__inset__pullquote \">\n<p class=\"pullquote-content article__inset__pullquote__quote\">\n        <span class=\"l-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--left\">\u201c<\/span><br \/>\n        \u2018Miami\u2019s streets even flood on sunny days; saltwater from Biscayne Bay comes up through the drains during high tide\u00a0 400% more often than a few decades ago.\u2019<br \/>\n        <span class=\"r-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--right\">\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p>        <small><br \/>\n          <span class=\"inset-author article__inset__pullquote__author\">\u2014 John Morales, atmospheric and environmental scientist<\/span><br \/>\n        <\/small><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Sea-level rise is accelerating due to thermal expansion of the oceans, which are also rising because of melting glaciers and ice caps. Higher seas are, in turn, adding punch to hurricanes as they suck up and dump heavy rains further inland. Climate change acts as a risk multiplier, aggravating the impact of other factors.<\/p>\n<p> For instance, sea-level rise can increase the risk of corrosion in buildings and other infrastructure. As the ocean rises, saltwater can creep into fresh groundwater systems, creating what\u2019s known as a saltwater intrusion.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cClimate change is changing the demands on all of our buildings across the U.S.,\u201d Ben Schafer, a structural engineer at Johns Hopkins University, told CNN. \u201cSea-level rise is one example of something that\u2019s much broader. All of us are experiencing this, and, just as we\u2019re experiencing it, all of our buildings are experiencing it, as well. In many cases, they\u2019re facing demands that weren\u2019t anticipated when we designed them.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>A commercial pool contractor and others, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.miamiherald.com\/news\/local\/community\/miami-dade\/miami-beach\/article252421658.html\" class=\"icon none\">speaking with the Miami Herald<\/a>, have pointed to concrete cracks and other potential red flags where a pool deck sat atop an underground parking garage at the doomed 12-story condominium on Collins Avenue. Other observers have noted signs of gradual sinking, rebar corrosion and the potential ground-shaking disruption from construction. With emphasis still on rescue and recovery, building experts stress that further investigation is needed to determine the cause or causes, and whether other coastal properties could be at risk.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Read:<\/strong> Biden seeks to comfort Surfside survivors and support search and rescue crews during Florida visit<\/p>\n<p>The building, dating to the 1980s, and its neighbors rise up from sand and silt brought in from Biscayne Bay after mangrove deforestation. It has a limestone substrate under the organic fill into which pilings that support the building would have been anchored. This type of construction is typical of the entire Miami Beach region. Subsidence, or uneven sinking, is a major concern in such coastal communities.<\/p>\n<h6><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Disasters_accumulate\"><\/span>Disasters accumulate<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h6>\n<p>The U.S. experienced a record 22\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/stories\/record-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-struck-us-in-2020\" class=\"icon none\">billion-plus-dollar weather and climate disasters<\/a>\u00a0in 2020, which racked up about $95 billion in aggregate damage. This included a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-was-a-record-breaker-and-its-raising-more-concerns-about-climate-change-150495\" class=\"icon none\">historic hurricane season<\/a>, with 30 named storms and seven billion-dollar tropical cyclones,  the most in one year since NOAA started keeping track of billion-dollar disasters in 1980.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMiami\u2019s streets even flood on sunny days; saltwater from Biscayne Bay comes up through the drains during high tide\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0964569116300278\" class=\"icon none\">400% more often<\/a>\u00a0than a few decades ago. And tropical storms are reaching major hurricane status with\u00a0greater ease \u2014 many of them producing a greater impact on South Florida due to the stronger winds as well as a broader and deeper storm surge,\u201d Morales said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Read:<\/strong> A challenging hurricane season lies ahead for cities and states, new report warns<\/p>\n<p><strong>Don\u2019t miss<\/strong>: How to prepare as climate change delivers another above-normal hurricane season<\/p>\n<h6><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Home_buyers_respond\"><\/span>Home buyers respond<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h6>\n<p>\u201cGray swan\u201d considerations are already having some impact in real-estate markets and for municipal governments.<\/p>\n<p>Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania studied the dynamics of coastal real estate in Florida, where as many as a million homes are expected to be\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ucsusa.org\/sites\/default\/files\/attach\/2018\/06\/underwater-analysis-full-report.pdf\" class=\"icon none\">at risk of chronic flooding<\/a>\u00a0due to rising sea levels by the year 2100. Comparing homes in areas with more exposure to rising sea levels with those that are less at risk,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/papers.nber.org\/tmp\/22340-w27930.pdf\" class=\"icon none\">the study, released late last year,<\/a>\u00a0found that the home buyers it tracked had far less interest in the more at-risk properties.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetPullQuote\n            inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetPullQuote\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"wsj-article-pullquote article__inset__pullquote \">\n<p class=\"pullquote-content article__inset__pullquote__quote\">\n        <span class=\"l-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--left\">\u201c<\/span><br \/>\n        Miami\u2019s plan suggests it will cost around $4 billion to protect the city from the rising seas.<br \/>\n        <span class=\"r-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--right\">\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       <strong>Read more:<\/strong> \u2018Climate change risk\u2019 may be spurring home buyers to steer clear of coastal Florida markets, study says<\/p>\n<p> \u201cProspective buyers have become more pessimistic about climate-change risk than prospective sellers,\u201d the researchers said, while emphasizing that market patterns differed between higher-end and lower-end properties and whether residents could afford to be choosy.<\/p>\n<p>The city of Miami recently released a new\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.miamigov.com\/Government\/Departments-Organizations\/Office-of-Capital-Improvements\/Stormwater-Master-Plan\" class=\"icon none\">stormwater master plan<\/a>, which suggested it would cost around $4 billion to protect the city from the rising seas using storm-water pumps, seawalls and drainage systems. Even then, the report warned, not every neighborhood would be safe.<\/p>\n<p>Morales credited atmospheric and climate scientist\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/eapsweb.mit.edu\/people\/kokey\" class=\"icon none\">Kerry Emanuel<\/a>, who is affiliated with MIT\u2019s Lorenz Center, with furthering the idea of climate change \u201cgray swans.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>They offer up Tampa, located across the state if Florida from the Surfside disaster, as a prime example. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cA major hurricane striking Tampa at just the right angle so as to cause a catastrophic storm surge \u2014 albeit a rare event \u2014 would not be surprising or hard to predict,\u201d Morales wrote. \u201cHuman nature dictates that people would be shocked by such an event and classify it as a black swan. But meteorologists have known that it\u2019s only a matter of time, and when that storm surge finally h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ens it will be a gray swan event and not black.\u201d<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Rachel Koning Beals\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Rachel_Koning_Beals\"><\/span>Rachel Koning Beals<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-74EF-553E187DE7BB%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#: Is the Surfside building collapse a \u2018gray swan\u2019 climate-change event?&#8221; It\u2019s too soon to declare a cause, but weather and climate experts see opportunity for a hard look at coastal development and preparedness Structural engineers believe it will take months to pinpoint the causes of the deadly condominium collapse in Surfside, Fla., just north&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":290406,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-290405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/290405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=290405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/290405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/290406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=290405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=290405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=290405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}