{"id":296071,"date":"2021-07-11T00:35:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-10T21:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/options-traders-aim-for-100k-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2021-is-there-a-chance\/"},"modified":"2021-07-11T00:35:00","modified_gmt":"2021-07-10T21:35:00","slug":"options-traders-aim-for-100k-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2021-is-there-a-chance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/options-traders-aim-for-100k-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2021-is-there-a-chance\/","title":{"rendered":"# Options traders aim for $100K Bitcoin by the end of 2021, is there a chance?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a406316c5faa\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a406316c5faa\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/options-traders-aim-for-100k-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2021-is-there-a-chance\/#Bitcoins_current_price_drivers\" >Bitcoin&#8217;s current price drivers<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/options-traders-aim-for-100k-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2021-is-there-a-chance\/#100000_is_still_in_play_according_to_options_markets\" >$100,000 is still in play according to options markets<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Options traders aim for $100K Bitcoin by the end of 2021, is there a chance? <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>Bitcoin (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investors&#8217; endless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC&#8217;s decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit.<\/p>\n<p>However, not even the most accurate models, including the stock-to-flow (S2F) from analyst Plan B, can predict bear markets, crashes, or FOMO-induced (fear of missing out) pumps. Traders usually misinterpret these concepts as value and price expectations can be easily mistaken.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, even if BTC maximalists think so. Therefore, its price action heavily depends on how many dollars, euros, and yuans are in circulation and interest rates, real estate, equities, and commodities. Even global economic growth and inflationary expectations impact the risk <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>etite for people, companies, and mutual funds.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoins_current_price_drivers\"><\/span>Bitcoin&#8217;s current price drivers<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Regardless of what these valuation models predict, price is exclusively composed by the market participants at any given moment. Opposite to what one might expect, data from CryptoQuant shows only 2.5 million Bitcoin currently deposited on exchanges. Compare this to the 10.7 million that hasn&#8217;t been moved in the last 12 months according to &#8216;HODL wave&#8217; data, and we can say that long-term holders have no say in the price.<\/p>\n<p>As the difference between value (subjective) and price (historical and objective) becomes more evident, it is easier to understand why some investors expect $100,000 or higher targets for the end of 2021. However, to correctly interpret what odds are being placed for those prices, one needs to analyze the calls (buy) existing in the options markets.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-07\/80ec2837-e443-4626-860f-a316751d0890.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin aggregate call options for Dec. 31. Source: Bybt<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Although the call (buy) options vastly dominate compared to the protective puts, this is common for almost every asset class on longer-term expiries. However, a call option with a $50,000 strike should be more representative than a $200,000 one because their prices will be noticeably different.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-07\/42d0b722-f62f-410e-8983-ea569f483825.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin Dec. 31 call options market snapshot. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>At the time of writing, a right to acquire (call option) Bitcoin for $50,000 on Dec. 31 is valued at $4,350. Meanwhile, the same instrument using a $200,000 strike price costs $415, which is roughly ten times lower.<\/p>\n<p>Cointelegraph previously explained how $100,000 to $300,000 strikes should not be taken as precise analysis-backed price estimates. Investors typically sell higher-strike calls while simultaneously buying the more costly call option with a lower strike.<\/p>\n<p>In short, assuming that investors are exclusively buying the ultra-bullish call options is naive and usually wrong. However, even the option strategies involving selling those options are <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>ly neutral-to-bullish.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"100000_is_still_in_play_according_to_options_markets\"><\/span>$100,000 is still in play according to options markets<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>According to the Black &amp; Scholes model, the current $1,185 price for the $100,000 call option has a 13% mathematical probability. It is worth noting that this methodology considers the price exclusively on Dec. 31 at 8:00 am ET and does not count the $99,999 price as a success.<\/p>\n<p>Despite this, there is strong evidence that professional traders are still valuing the year-end $100,000 options. It might seem far-fetched right now, but Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility opens room for surprise, especially considering that there&#8217;s still half a year ahead.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>author<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/options-traders-aim-for-100k-bitcoin-by-the-end-of-2021-is-there-a-chance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Options traders aim for $100K Bitcoin by the end of 2021, is there a chance? &#8221; Bitcoin (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investors&#8217; endless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC&#8217;s decreasing issuance and&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":296072,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMDcvYTgwYzAyNDktZmRmNC00ZjA3LWIxMzktYWJlZmQwMWQ1M2FlLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,81209,74937,74982,74863,75012,74939,80225,73785],"class_list":["post-296071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc-markets","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-derivatives","tag-market-analysis","tag-value","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=296071"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/296071\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/296072"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=296071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=296071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=296071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}