{"id":309446,"date":"2021-07-27T20:21:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-27T17:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/mark-hulbert-nasdaq-15000-is-near-do-i-hear-30000\/"},"modified":"2021-07-27T20:21:00","modified_gmt":"2021-07-27T17:21:00","slug":"mark-hulbert-nasdaq-15000-is-near-do-i-hear-30000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-nasdaq-15000-is-near-do-i-hear-30000\/","title":{"rendered":"#Mark Hulbert: Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3cacb606323\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3cacb606323\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-nasdaq-15000-is-near-do-i-hear-30000\/#How_the_Nasdaq_Composite_could_eclipse_the_Dow_in_points_in_10_years\" >How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-nasdaq-15000-is-near-do-i-hear-30000\/#Mark_Hulbert\" >Mark Hulbert<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#Mark Hulbert: Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_the_Nasdaq_Composite_could_eclipse_the_Dow_in_points_in_10_years\"><\/span>\n  How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000351359\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000351359\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Nasdaq 30,000? It\u2019s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years \u2014 July 2023.<\/p>\n<p> Welcome to the latest parlor <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a> inspired by the Nasdaq Composite\u2019s<br \/>\n        COMP,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598365\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-2.19%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq\u2019s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so \u2014 to 3.3 years.<\/p>\n<p>A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average<br \/>\n        DJIA,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598065\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-0.68%<\/bg-quote><span>.<\/span><br \/>\n       That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks\u2019 respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years \u2014 in the summer of 2031.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Here\u2019s the catch<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there\u2019s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<\/p>\n<p>For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq\u2019s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow \u2014 since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<\/p>\n<p>So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market\u2019s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:67.28571428571428%;\" data-subtype=\"photo\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-375197?width=540&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 540w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-375197?width=620&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 620w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-375197?width=639&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 639w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-375197?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 700w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-375197?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802&amp;pixel_ratio=1.5 1050w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-375197?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802&amp;pixel_ratio=2 1400w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-375197?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802&amp;pixel_ratio=3 2100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 979px) 620px, (max-width: 1299px) 540px, 700px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-375197?width=700&amp;height=471\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market\u2019s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ssrn.com\/abstract=3805927\" class=\"icon none\">database from Edward McQuarrie<\/a>, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<\/p>\n<p>Based on his database, here\u2019s what I project for the Nasdaq\u2019s performance in coming years:<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      Overall market\u2019s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/inflation-expectations.aspx\" class=\"icon none\">Cleveland Fed model<\/a>)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Nasdaq Composite\u2019s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu\/pages\/faculty\/ken.french\/data_library.html\" class=\"icon none\">data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French<\/a> on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That\u2019s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite\u2019s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite\u2019s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market\u2019s current overvaluation impacts equities\u2019 future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<\/p>\n<p>The bottom line? Trees don\u2019t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<\/p>\n<p><em>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>letters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at <\/em><em>mark@hulbertratings.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>More:<\/strong> Big losses ahead for markets? Jeremy Grantham\u2019s terrifying new forecasts<\/p>\n<p><strong>Plus: <\/strong>This could be the peak of the tech boom \u2014 Here\u2019s what to look for<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Mark Hulbert\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mark_Hulbert\"><\/span>Mark Hulbert<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-755C-7F9676D31A58%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#Mark Hulbert: Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?&#8221; How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years Nasdaq 30,000? It\u2019s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88375,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-309446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=309446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309446\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=309446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=309446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=309446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}