{"id":317342,"date":"2021-08-06T21:06:33","date_gmt":"2021-08-06T18:06:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/machine-learning-provides-insights-into-worldwide-terrorist-attacks\/"},"modified":"2021-08-06T21:06:33","modified_gmt":"2021-08-06T18:06:33","slug":"machine-learning-provides-insights-into-worldwide-terrorist-attacks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/machine-learning-provides-insights-into-worldwide-terrorist-attacks\/","title":{"rendered":"#Machine learning provides insights into worldwide terrorist attacks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;<strong>#Machine learning provides insights into worldwide terrorist attacks<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>A team of researchers has used machine learning\u00a0to predict and explain terrorist attacks.<\/p>\n<p>Their tests suggest the models can\u00a0<span>accurately predict attacks in regions that are already affected by terrorism. However, they found<\/span>\u00a0that \u201cblack swan events,\u201d which occur sporadically, are almost impossible to predict.<\/p>\n<p>The researchers, led by Dr Andre Python\u00a0from Zhejiang University in China,<span>\u00a0<\/span>used publicly available data to analyze the location and data of<span>\u00a0attacks that occurred between 2002 and 2016 in 13 regions of the world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe<span>\u00a0define terrorism as politically motivated attacks outside legitimate warfare (i.e., targeting noncombatants) perpetrated by non-state actors to communicate to a wider audience,\u201d the group wrote in their study paper.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"post-image post-mediaBleed aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1362941 size-full js-lazy\" alt=\"Analyzing terrorist attacks.\" width=\"1400\" height=\"785\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1400px) 100vw, 1400px\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_.jpg 1400w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_-280x157.jpg 280w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_-482x270.jpg 482w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_-241x135.jpg 241w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_-796x446.jpg 796w\"\/><figcaption><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"#\" data-url=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Feditorial.thenextweb.com%2Fneural%2F2021%2F08%2F06%2Fmachine-learning-predicts-explains-worldwide-terrorist-attacks%2F&amp;via=thenextweb&amp;related=thenextweb&amp;text=Check out this picture on: The red dots on the map show the locations of the terrorist events they analyzed.\" data-title=\"Share The red dots on the map show the locations of the terrorist events they analyzed. on Twitter\" data-width=\"685\" data-height=\"500\" class=\"post-image-share popitup\" title=\"Share The red dots on the map show the locations of the terrorist events they analyzed. on Twitter\"><i class=\"icon icon--inline icon--twitter--dark\"\/><\/a>The red dots on the map show the locations of the terrorist events they analyzed.<\/figcaption><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1362941 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_.jpg\" alt=\"Analyzing terrorist attacks.\" width=\"1400\" height=\"785\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_.jpg 1400w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_-280x157.jpg 280w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_-482x270.jpg 482w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_-241x135.jpg 241w, https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/F1.large_-796x446.jpg 796w\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<p><span>Predictive models were built for each of the individual regions. The algorithms incorporated numerous variables that could make them targets for attacks, from proximity to international borders to population density.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The team said their models can\u00a0<span>produce interpretable and accurate predictions of attacks a week ahead in areas with fairly high levels of terrorism.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The results showed how the probability<span>\u00a0of an attack changes over time.\u00a0<\/span>In regions strongly affected by terrorism, such as Southeast Asia, the risk of a terrorist event peaked roughly 200 weeks after a previous attack. In areas with a lower terrorism prevalence, such as Russia and Eastern Europe,\u00a0the risk continued to increase until around 400 weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Per the study paper:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span>This finding highlights that terrorists do indeed tend to target the same locations multiple times. The reasons for this can be manifold, but in <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>, it seems that these locations reflect the strategic equilibrium between reachability (i.e., cost for attacking for the terrorists) and the strategic value (i.e., benefits of an attack) of a location.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The team also found that the probability of terrorism tends to be negatively associated with population density:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span>[This] suggests\u00a0that the probability of a terrorist attack is higher in less populated areas. Since the urban centers can be seen as more attractive targets, the results may indicate that access to these areas is an important constraint faced by terrorists.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>You can read the open-access study paper in the\u00a0<span>journal\u00a0<\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/advances.sciencemag.org\/content\/7\/31\/eabg4778\">Science Advances<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em>This story is adapted from the Neural <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>letter. 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Their tests suggest the models can\u00a0accurately predict attacks in regions that are already affected by terrorism. However, they found\u00a0that \u201cblack swan events,\u201d which occur sporadically, are almost impossible to predict. The researchers, led by&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":317343,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/neural?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/Untitled-design-2-2.jpg&signature=53d51b5222bbaf6287756b0951b1a853","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-317342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=317342"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317342\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/317343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=317342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=317342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=317342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}