{"id":325036,"date":"2021-08-15T18:21:02","date_gmt":"2021-08-15T15:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/338canada-trudeaus-election-to-lose\/"},"modified":"2021-08-15T18:21:02","modified_gmt":"2021-08-15T15:21:02","slug":"338canada-trudeaus-election-to-lose","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/338canada-trudeaus-election-to-lose\/","title":{"rendered":"#338Canada: Trudeau&#8217;s election to lose"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;<strong>#338Canada: Trudeau&#8217;s election to lose<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                            Philippe J. Fournier: A majority is within reach for the Liberals, but the NDP&#8217;s current level of support could yet throw a wrench into their plans\n                        <\/div>\n<div>\n                                                                        After months of speculation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has finally decided to push all his chip in the electoral pot, betting that his handling of the pandemic thus far (because no, it\u2019s not over) will win over just enough voters in the right ridings to secure a majority at the House of Commons.<\/p>\n<p>While any party\u2019s fortune may turn on a dime if a campaign goes off the track, the data currently available suggests it is not an unreasonable bet. The Liberals have been leading voting intentions consistently for over a year and, according to <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Legers-North-American-Tracker-August-2nd-2021_v2.pdf\">L\u00e9ger\u2019s biweekly tracker<\/a>, close to half of Canadian voters still <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>rove of the federal government\u2019s handling of the pandemic, including 49 per cent approval in both Ontario and Quebec, and 44 per cent in British Columbia. In normal times, these would be considered solid numbers for any incumbent, regardless of affiliation.<\/p>\n<p>Part of the calculations for the Liberals has to be related to O\u2019Toole\u2019s poor personal numbers of late. Poll after poll shows the Conservative leader as the least appreciated federal leader:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">In the most recent Abacus Data poll published last week, the Conservative leader had a net impression of minus-19 (positive impression minus negative impression), the lowest among current federal leaders and significantly worse than O\u2019Toole\u2019s predecessor at this time two years ago. In August 2019, two months before election day, Andrew Scheer held a minus-3 rating. See Abacus\u2019 report <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/abacusdata.ca\/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9\/\">here<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">In a L\u00e9ger poll published by <i>Le Journal de Montr\u00e9al<\/i> on Saturday, O\u2019Toole ranked third behind Trudeau and Singh on preferred prime minister. To the question: \u201cWhich federal leader would make the best PM?\u201d, Trudeau was the choice of 25 per cent of respondents and Singh, 18 per cent. Only 15 per cent picked O\u2019Toole even though 30 per cent of decided voters in that poll still intend to vote for the CPC. See L\u00e9ger\u2019s report <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Rapport-politique-federale-14-aout-2021.pdf\">here<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px;\">In its latest survey, the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) asked its panel which issue facing Canada they cared most about. The top three answers were, in order, 1) the environment \/ climate change, 2) health care, and 3) the COVID-19 pandemic. When asked which federal leader is best suited to deal with these issues, O\u2019Toole ranked third in all three (O\u2019Toole performs better with economic issues). See ARI\u2019s report <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/angusreid.org\/federal-politics-august-2021\/\">here<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>However, Trudeau\u2019s path to a majority could get hindered from his left flank. With the NDP nearing the 20 per cent mark nationally, the party could realistically increase its deputation by at least a dozens seats, and many of those would come from Ontario and British Columbia. With such levels of support, many urban seats currently held by Liberals MPs should be targeted by Jagmeet Singh\u2019s candidates. Should the NDP be successful in translating this support into votes, the 170-seat threshold could become out of reach for the Liberals, and we would potentially find ourselves in a near-identical Parliament five weeks from now.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the updated 338Canada national vote projection:<br \/><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/canada\/#vote\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2021-08-14-vote.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"18\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Liberals remain in first place with a 35 per cent average, merely two-point above the party\u2019s result in 2019. The Conservatives stand in second place with 30 per cent, a level of support decidedly inferior to what the party needs to have any hope to win the most seats. But despite O\u2019Toole\u2019s poor personal numbers, it would be foolish to count the party out: The CPC is still polling near or at its 2019 level of support in both Quebec and Ontario, and remains the dominant party in the West\u2014albeit less so than with Andrew Scheer in 2019. (See complete list of federal polls on <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/polls.htm\">this page<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>As mentioned above, the NDP current level of support could potentially throw a wrench into the Liberals\u2019 plans (outside of Quebec). However, polls also show the NDP\u2019s main core of support lies with younger voters, a demographic tranche that historically votes in fewer numbers. This will be the main challenge for the NDP: translating support into actual votes in ballot boxes. In 2019, the NDP underperformed its polls by an average of 2 points nationally, which arguably cost Singh somewhere between five to 10 seats.<\/p>\n<p>In Quebec, the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois has been polling in the high 20s and low 30s in the province for the better part of this 43rd Parliament, enough for a close second place behind the Liberals on average. However, yesterday\u2019s L\u00e9ger poll showed the Liberals ahead in Quebec by a 12-point margin over the BQ, so Yves-Fran\u00e7ois Blanchet may have to play a little bit of defense in ridings he won by modest margins two years ago.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the 338Canada seat projections at the starting line:<br \/><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/canada\/#seats\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2021-08-14-seats.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"18\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>According to the 338Canada electoral model, Trudeau\u2019s Liberals win an average of 166 seats, just below the majority threshold of 170. However, the confidence intervals (coloured bars on the graph) do stretch into majority territory for about 45 per cent of all simulations performed by the model. So while a LPC minority remains the most likely scenario as of today, a majority is very well within reach.<\/p>\n<p>However, Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/8098080\/canada-federal-election-voter-turnout\/\">raised a crucial point last week regarding voter turnout<\/a>. In federal <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> elections this century, the Conservatives won three relatively low-turnout elections in 2006, 2008 and 2011, in part because\u00a0of the CPC\u2019s usual high numbers among older (and high-turnout) voters. In 2015, young voters turning out in droves were crucial for Trudeau\u2019s first victory, and many of those showed up again in 2019. How will turnout affect this pandemic election could be a major factor in determining the final seat totals once all the votes are counted.<\/p>\n<p>Later this week, we will dive into more detailed analyses about what regions and what type of voters will each party target to maximize their chances to win. For the length of this 36-day campaign, you can look forward this column several times a week. We will update all the numbers as they become available. Buckle up, dear readers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>* * *<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Details of this projection are available on the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/\">338Canada page<\/a>. To find your home district, use <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/\">this list of all 338 electoral districts<\/a>, or use the regional links below:<br \/>\n<span class=\"ctx-article-root\"><!-- --><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async defer crossorigin=\"anonymous\" src=\"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/sdk.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/ottawa\/338canada-trudeaus-election-to-lose\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#338Canada: Trudeau&#8217;s election to lose&#8221; Philippe J. Fournier: A majority is within reach for the Liberals, but the NDP&#8217;s current level of support could yet throw a wrench into their plans After months of speculation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has finally decided to push all his chip in the electoral pot, betting that his handling&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":325037,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/CP127484699-766x431.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[68065,67806,109265,67817,72538],"class_list":["post-325036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-conservatives","tag-editors-picks","tag-federal-election-2021","tag-liberals","tag-ndp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325036","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=325036"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325036\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/325037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=325036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=325036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=325036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}