{"id":329346,"date":"2021-08-23T23:45:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-23T20:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/pro-traders-are-mildly-skeptical-about-bitcoins-recent-return-to-50k\/"},"modified":"2021-08-23T23:45:00","modified_gmt":"2021-08-23T20:45:00","slug":"pro-traders-are-mildly-skeptical-about-bitcoins-recent-return-to-50k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/pro-traders-are-mildly-skeptical-about-bitcoins-recent-return-to-50k\/","title":{"rendered":"# Pro traders are mildly skeptical about Bitcoin\u2019s recent return to $50K"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a28cdcea3a11\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a28cdcea3a11\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/pro-traders-are-mildly-skeptical-about-bitcoins-recent-return-to-50k\/#The_futures_premium_has_remained_stable\" >The futures premium has remained stable<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/pro-traders-are-mildly-skeptical-about-bitcoins-recent-return-to-50k\/#Options_markets_confirm_the_muted_sentiment\" >Options markets confirm the muted sentiment<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Pro traders are mildly skeptical about Bitcoin\u2019s recent return to $50K <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is back at the $50,000 level, and there&#8217;s little doubt that the 47% positive rally over the past 30 days has been fueled by whale accumulation, institutional adoption and positive remarks from regulators regarding a possible exchange-traded fund (EFT) <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>roval.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the positive <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>flow, the top traders at crypto exchanges and derivatives data appear unmoved by the recent rally to the $50,000 resistance.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto analyst Will Clemente highlighted the accumulation from addresses containing 1,000 to 10,000 BTC.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Price down today while whale holdings went up by ~13,000 BTC. Funny how that works. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/a6tb2DiqxH\">pic.twitter.com\/a6tb2DiqxH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WClementeIII\/status\/1427806214092644355?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 18, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>In other news, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/uk.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/cryptos-up-as-wells-fargo-jp-morgan-register-bitcoin-fund-dogecoin-ethereum-coinbase-112330330.html\">partnered<\/a> with New York Digital Investment Group, a <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">technology<\/a> and financial services firm, to offer Bitcoin funds for their wealth management clients.<\/p>\n<p>The positive expectations mounted after United States Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler suggested an openness to approving ETF products exposed to regulated Bitcoin futures contracts under the Investment Company Act of 1940.<\/p>\n<p>A final tidbit of positive news came with Bitcoin&#8217;s hash rate increasing 5% over the past week to reach 125 exahashes per second. Albeit 30% below mid-May&#8217;s peak before China&#8217;s ban took place, it has proved the network&#8217;s operational resilience.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_futures_premium_has_remained_stable\"><\/span>The futures premium has remained stable<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>One of the best measures of professional traders&#8217; optimism is the futures market&#8217;s premium. It measures the gap between quarterly contracts and the current spot price levels. A 6% to 14% annualized premium is expected in healthy markets, which is in line with the lending rate of stablecoins.<\/p>\n<p>However, a backwardation scenario occurs during bearish markets because the indicator fades or i turns negative.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-08\/22ee1664-fa64-4ec0-8dce-702611e8b3df.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>OKEx September BTC futures contracts premium. Source: <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/spread\/100%2AOKEX%3AADAUSDT3M%2FOKEX%3AADAUSDT\/\"><em>TradingView<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Over the past three weeks, the September contract has held a 0.7% premium, which is equivalent to a 7% annualized rate. Although far from the negative range, this shows a lack of confidence, a Bitcoin price rallied 27% over the same period.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Related:<em> <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>$50K BTC price vs. the Fed \u2014 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Options_markets_confirm_the_muted_sentiment\"><\/span>Options markets confirm the muted sentiment<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, one should also analyze the options markets. Whenever market makers and professional traders lean bullish, they will demand a higher premium on call options. This trend causes a -25% delta skew.<\/p>\n<p>A skew indicator oscillating between -7% and +7% is usually deemed neutral. On the other hand, the metric shifts above this range whenever the downside protection is more costly.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-08\/ca254632-d7f4-4e30-bd25-a916bd1771cf.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The 25% delta skew has failed to display significantly higher costs for upside protection, which would have caused the index to move below the -7% threshold.<\/p>\n<p>Both futures instruments predominantly used by whales and arbitrage desks do not reflect the same wild optimism that Crypto <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a> and retail traders displayed when Bitcoin&#8217;s price breached the &#8220;all-important&#8221; $50,000 mark. <\/p>\n<p>Consequently, there is strong evidence showing that top traders are not confident in buying at the current levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\"><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>author<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/pro-traders-are-mildly-skeptical-about-bitcoin-s-recent-return-to-50k\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Pro traders are mildly skeptical about Bitcoin\u2019s recent return to $50K &#8221; The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is back at the $50,000 level, and there&#8217;s little doubt that the 47% positive rally over the past 30 days has been fueled by whale accumulation, institutional adoption and positive remarks from regulators regarding a possible exchange-traded&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":329347,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMDgvMGRjZDg1ZDUtNGQ1Ny00MzQ1LTk2YzctMDJhM2JjZDU5ZmM0LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,81209,74937,74863,74860,75012,75849,75846,74939,75592,70792,73785],"class_list":["post-329346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-derivatives","tag-etf","tag-futures","tag-market-analysis","tag-okex","tag-jpmorgan-chase","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=329346"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329346\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/329347"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=329346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=329346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=329346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}