{"id":330784,"date":"2021-08-26T22:52:51","date_gmt":"2021-08-26T19:52:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/this-brilliant-new-voting-algorithm-would-have-predicted-hillarys-loss\/"},"modified":"2021-08-26T22:52:51","modified_gmt":"2021-08-26T19:52:51","slug":"this-brilliant-new-voting-algorithm-would-have-predicted-hillarys-loss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/this-brilliant-new-voting-algorithm-would-have-predicted-hillarys-loss\/","title":{"rendered":"#This brilliant new voting algorithm would have predicted Hillary\u2019s loss"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#This brilliant new voting algorithm would have predicted Hillary\u2019s loss<\/strong>”
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Did you know\u00a0Neural<\/span>\u00a0is taking the stage this fall? Together with an amazing line-up of experts, we will explore the future of AI during TNW Conference 2021.\u00a0Secure your online ticket now!<\/em><\/p>\n

A 2002 National Geographic survey<\/a> demonstrated that only about 17% of adults in the US could point to Afghanistan on a map. And this was less than a year removed from the 9\/11 terrorist attacks, so you can be certain the Middle East was splayed across 24-hours news<\/a> networks <\/span>ad infinitum<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

You\u2019d be forgiven, then, if you didn\u2019t think highly of the so-called \u201cwisdom of crowds.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

But there\u2019s a new AI-human hybrid forecasting paradigm that\u2019s showing incredible improvements over the old \u201cmajority rules\u201d method of crowd-sourcing predictions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Up front:<\/strong> Remember when the New York Times and everyone else predicted about an 85% chance<\/a> that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US presidential election? <\/span><\/p>\n

Well, that\u2019s because everybody and their mother said they were going to vote for Hillary Clinton. Nobody took the scattered millions here and there who said they weren\u2019t very seriously.<\/span><\/p>\n

When people were asked who they thought was going to win the election<\/em>, almost all of them answered: Hillary Clinton.<\/span><\/p>\n

We should have been asking them to give their opinion on how other voters were going to answer that question.<\/span><\/p>\n

Background:<\/strong> Researchers at Princeton University came up with a paradigm called the \u201csurprisingly popular answer\u201d that app<\/a>arently outperforms other crowd wisdom models. <\/span><\/p>\n

It works by asking an objective question such as, is Philadelphia the capital of Pennsylvania? And then you also ask, will most other people answer yes or no? <\/span><\/p>\n

People familiar with US geography will know that Harrisburg is the capital, so the correct answer is \u201cno.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

And people from Pennsylvania (as well as students of human nature) will know that a lot of people who aren\u2019t from the state are going to get that one wrong. <\/span><\/p>\n

The outcome of the survey will, according to the paradigm, clearly show that the correct answer is a <\/span>surprisingly popular<\/i> answer. <\/span><\/p>\n

The number of people who know the correct answer but also assume others won\u2019t, coupled with the number of people who answer incorrectly while assuming others will answer as they did, makes the actual number of correct \u201cno\u201d answers surprising \u2013 they don\u2019t follow what the crowd <\/span>expected<\/i>. <\/span><\/p>\n

This might not sound ground-breaking, but when researchers applied math models to algorithms using the <\/span>surprisingly\u00a0popular<\/i> answer paradigm, they found a marked increase in accuracy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Per a 2017 press release<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n

Across all topics, the researchers found that the \u201csurprisingly popular\u201d algorithm reduced errors by 21.3 percent compared to simple majority votes, and by 24.2 percent compared to basic confidence-weighted votes (where people express how confident they are in their answers). <\/span><\/p>\n

It also reduced errors by 22.2 percent compared to answers with the highest average confidence levels. On the 50 test questions related to state capitals\u2014such as the Harrisburg-Philadelphia question\u2014the SP method reduced incorrect decisions by 48 percent compared to the majority vote.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

What\u2019s new:<\/strong> A lot\u2019s changed since 2017 in the AI world and the surprisingly popular answer paradigm has gotten a massive upgrade.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to a new press release<\/a>, this one from Pennsylvania State University, researchers have figured out how to use <\/span>SP<\/i> on ranked lists. <\/span><\/p>\n

This means it\u2019s as efficacious at finding ground-truth rankings, in order, as it is at predicting the answer to a yes\/no question. <\/span><\/p>\n

Per team lead Hadi Hassani:<\/span><\/p>\n

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One does not require to fully elicit complete rankings and predictions of others. We are able to recover the ground truth by combining both the vote and predictions without eliciting full distributions over all possible n! rankings. And this is true for recovering either only the top choice or the full ranking.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Quick take:<\/strong> Crowds can be stupid, but trying to figure out which individuals are and aren\u2019t subject-matter experts or trustworthy representatives of their population can be as political an exercise as running for office. <\/span><\/p>\n

We need a method by which people in a crowd who know what they\u2019re talking about can be heard louder than those who don\u2019t \u2013 but one that doesn\u2019t rely on <\/span>identity<\/i> to discern who deserves consideration.<\/span><\/p>\n

Behold the power of math! By sorting out who\u2019s right based on predictions about <\/span>who\u2019s really right about who\u2019s right<\/i>, we end up in a weird place where the numbers make more sense than just trying to pick a winner.<\/span><\/p>\n

You can read the Pennsylvania team\u2019s whole research paper here<\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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If you want to read more like this article, you can visit our Technology category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“#This brilliant new voting algorithm would have predicted Hillary\u2019s loss” Did you know\u00a0Neural\u00a0is taking the stage this fall? Together with an amazing line-up of experts, we will explore the future of AI during TNW Conference 2021.\u00a0Secure your online ticket now! A 2002 National Geographic survey demonstrated that only about 17% of adults in the US…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":330785,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/neural?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/08\/crowdAI.jpg&signature=994c506987851b99414b73461e5edf6b","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-330784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=330784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330784\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/330785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=330784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=330784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=330784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}