{"id":339205,"date":"2021-09-14T17:30:08","date_gmt":"2021-09-14T14:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/"},"modified":"2021-09-14T17:30:08","modified_gmt":"2021-09-14T14:30:08","slug":"gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/","title":{"rendered":"#Gerald Butts on the final days of the Election 2021: &#8216;It&#8217;s basically over&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a4150486a5ae\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a4150486a5ae\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_Can_you_tell_me_a_bit_about_the_preparation_process_for_for_a_leaders_debate_It_seems_so_enormously_high-stakes_and_like_the_kind_of_thing_where_once_it_gets_started_no_one_can_help_their_candidate\" >Q: Can you tell me a bit about the preparation process for for a leaders debate? It seems so enormously high-stakes and like the kind of thing where once it gets started, no one can help their candidate.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_I_meant_nerve-racking_for_everyone_Its_quite_a_thing_for_us_all_to_armchair-quarterback_this_but_its_a_little_bit_horrifying_I_wouldnt_do_it\" >Q: I meant nerve-racking for everyone. It\u2019s quite a thing for us all to armchair-quarterback this, but it\u2019s a little bit horrifying. I wouldn\u2019t do it.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_Onto_asking_about_specific_performances_How_did_you_think_Justin_Trudeau_did\" >Q: Onto asking about specific performances: How did you think Justin Trudeau did?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_He_seemed_hot-tempered_to_me_a_sort_of_turned-up_energy_that_wasnt_helping_him_The_last_week_or_so_Ive_observed_greater_energy_in_both_him_and_the_campaign_around_him_weve_seen_the_sliding_polls_bottom_out_but_I_thought_he_looked_a_bit_hot_under_the_collar_or_scrabbly_last_night_Whats_your_read\" >Q: He seemed hot-tempered to me, a sort of turned-up energy that wasn\u2019t helping him. The last week or so I\u2019ve observed greater energy in both him and the campaign around him, we\u2019ve seen the sliding polls bottom out, but I thought he looked a bit hot under the collar or scrabbly last night. What\u2019s your read?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_So_to_go_back_to_your_dichotomy_about_current_prime_ministers_do_you_think_he_got_beaten_up_really_badly_or_survived_to_walk_away\" >Q: So to go back to your dichotomy about current prime ministers, do you think he got beaten up really badly or survived to walk away?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_How_did_you_think_Erin_OToole_performed\" >Q: How did you think Erin O\u2019Toole performed?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_I_want_to_go_back_to_your_idea_of_this_campaign_being_over_by_now_can_you_walk_that_out_for_me\" >Q: I want to go back to your idea of this campaign being over by now, can you walk that out for me?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_I_think_you_used_seven_sports_analogies_last_time_but_carry_on\" >Q: I think you used seven sports analogies last time, but carry on.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_But_to_circle_back_to_something_else_we_talked_about_last_time_the_idea_that_this_was_not_a_great_moment_to_do_this_and_the_electorate_is_depleted_and_distracted_does_that_fundamentally_change_a_motivation_election_When_were_all_worried_about_schools_closing_and_people_staying_healthy_and_jobs_that_seems_like_a_tall_order_when_voting_rates_are_not_terrific_in_this_country_to_begin_with\" >Q: But to circle back to something else we talked about last time, the idea that this was not a great moment to do this and the electorate is depleted and distracted, does that fundamentally change a motivation election? When we\u2019re all worried about schools closing and people staying healthy and jobs, that seems like a tall order when voting rates are not terrific in this country to begin with.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_Weve_kicked_around_in_our_office_the_importance_of_when_people_get_together_with_other_people_and_talk_and_were_able_to_do_that_more_now_than_we_have_in_a_long_time_Paul_Wells_was_talking_about_the_Martin_election_over_Christmas_when_they_thought_no_one_would_pay_attention_but_it_turned_out_that_people_got_together_over_turkey_talked_and_things_set_in\" >Q: We\u2019ve kicked around in our office the importance of when people get together with other people and talk, and we\u2019re able to do that more now than we have in a long time. Paul Wells was talking about the Martin election over Christmas when they thought no one would pay attention, but it turned out that people got together over turkey, talked and things set in.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_When_you_mentioned_the_Conservatives_and_the_idea_that_something_was_going_to_happen_to_halt_the_momentum_did_something_happen_or_do_you_think_they_just_reached_a_natural_ceiling_What_do_you_make_of_that_halted_momentum\" >Q: When you mentioned the Conservatives and the idea that something was going to happen to halt the momentum, did something happen or do you think they just reached a natural ceiling? What do you make of that halted momentum?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_After_we_talked_last_time_I_thought_%E2%80%98Is_this_like_when_the_Trump_whisperers_would_go_on_the_Sunday_morning_shows_and_try_to_talk_to_him_Am_I_your_Ouija_board_And_if_I_am_am_I_your_Ouija_board_to_talk_to_Trudeau_and_company_or_to_the_electorate\" >Q: After we talked last time, I thought, \u2018Is this like when the Trump whisperers would go on the Sunday morning shows and try to talk to him?\u2019 Am I your Ouija board? And if I am, am I your Ouija board to talk to Trudeau and company, or to the electorate?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-election-2021-its-basically-over\/#Q_Got_it_So_if_this_thing_is_basically_over_by_now_whats_your_prediction_now\" >Q: Got it. So if this thing is basically over by now, what\u2019s your prediction now?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#Gerald Butts on the final days of the Election 2021: &#8216;It&#8217;s basically over&#8217;<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                                                                        Two weeks into the federal election campaign, <em>Maclean\u2019s<\/em> spoke to Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a key architect of the 2015 and 2019 Liberal campaigns, about how he thought the the campaign had unfolded so far. We expected that to be a one-off conversation, but the interview was extremely well-read and Butts\u2019s insider-now-on-the-outside insights seemed useful, so here we are again\u2014this time talking about debate preparation, reviewing the leaders\u2019 performances and how this campaign is basically over already, except for the ground <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_Can_you_tell_me_a_bit_about_the_preparation_process_for_for_a_leaders_debate_It_seems_so_enormously_high-stakes_and_like_the_kind_of_thing_where_once_it_gets_started_no_one_can_help_their_candidate\"><\/span>Q: Can you tell me a bit about the preparation process for for a leaders debate? It seems so enormously high-stakes and like the kind of thing where once it gets started, no one can help their candidate.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> It depends, sometimes the formula allows for that. The first federal debate I was ever involved in the preparation for was the <em>Maclean\u2019s<\/em> debate in 2015, and that did have intermission, and I remember that very vividly. Each leader was allowed to talk to one person in that intermission and I spoke to the then-leader of the third party, Justin Trudeau, and said, \u201cYou\u2019re doing great, keep doing what you\u2019re doing.\u201d You say it\u2019s nerve-wracking for the people who\u2019ve prepared the person for the debate, imagine being the person in the debate without any real sense of how people are reacting to what\u2019s going on.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_I_meant_nerve-racking_for_everyone_Its_quite_a_thing_for_us_all_to_armchair-quarterback_this_but_its_a_little_bit_horrifying_I_wouldnt_do_it\"><\/span>Q: I meant nerve-racking for everyone. It\u2019s quite a thing for us all to armchair-quarterback this, but it\u2019s a little bit horrifying. I wouldn\u2019t do it.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> It\u2019s not for the faint of heart, that\u2019s for sure. It\u2019s, as you say, very high-stakes to hang such important consequences on. Everybody prepares in their own way, my view is that the best way to prepare is to figure out what you want to say and then fit what you want to say to the format. Like most strategies, the successful ones are simple and you get lost when you try to do too much or too little.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>READ:\u00a0Justin Trudeau still can\u2019t answer why he called this election. A depleted nation despairs.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_Onto_asking_about_specific_performances_How_did_you_think_Justin_Trudeau_did\"><\/span>Q: Onto asking about specific performances: How did you think Justin Trudeau did?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> The first thing I would say is that prime ministers seldom win debates; they normally survive debates or not. And that\u2019s true of all incumbents, I think of all the debates I\u2019ve closely observed over the course of my life in and out of politics, the only one that I saw the incumbent clearly win would have been Mike Harris in 1999. Most others, the incumbent walks away from it ether still standing or is beaten up really badly. We won\u2019t know for sure what people thought until the polls come out on Tuesday or Wednesday\u2014and I think this campaign [was] basically over on Sunday or Monday\u2014but I thought he acquitted himself as well as he could under the circumstances.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_He_seemed_hot-tempered_to_me_a_sort_of_turned-up_energy_that_wasnt_helping_him_The_last_week_or_so_Ive_observed_greater_energy_in_both_him_and_the_campaign_around_him_weve_seen_the_sliding_polls_bottom_out_but_I_thought_he_looked_a_bit_hot_under_the_collar_or_scrabbly_last_night_Whats_your_read\"><\/span>Q: He seemed hot-tempered to me, a sort of turned-up energy that wasn\u2019t helping him. The last week or so I\u2019ve observed greater energy in both him and the campaign around him, we\u2019ve seen the sliding polls bottom out, but I thought he looked a bit hot under the collar or scrabbly last night. What\u2019s your read?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> I think he was very hot, and I think the format frustrated him on several fronts, in particular on issues where he thought he had a point to make where he couldn\u2019t get his point across because he was cut off by either the moderator or one of the other leaders. So yeah, I would agree with your assessment on that. As for why, I\u2019m not really sure. He did really well, I thought, in both French debates, and that is sort of a function of format, that he was given more of an opportunity to express himself.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_So_to_go_back_to_your_dichotomy_about_current_prime_ministers_do_you_think_he_got_beaten_up_really_badly_or_survived_to_walk_away\"><\/span>Q: So to go back to your dichotomy about current prime ministers, do you think he got beaten up really badly or survived to walk away?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> My own assessment would be he survived it, and I think he got some good points in on climate change. I thought he was the only person who really told the truth about things on climate change, obviously people can read my own biases in on that. There were a bunch of things said, in particular by Jagmeet Singh and Erin O\u2019Toole, that just aren\u2019t true, and this is the problem when you\u2019re in a situation where you only have 15 seconds to respond\u2014if you spend those 15 seconds telling the audience why what the person just said isn\u2019t true, then you run out of time really quickly and you never get an opportunity to get your own positive point across.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_How_did_you_think_Erin_OToole_performed\"><\/span>Q: How did you think Erin O\u2019Toole performed?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> I thought he did a good job of depicting himself as a kind of spokesperson for a middle-of-the-road version of conservatism. Now, people are going to have to judge whether that trues up with the platform they\u2019re running on and the history of the party, but he had a pretty clear job to do there, which is to make people believe he\u2019s not one of the crazies that\u2019s throwing rocks at the Prime Minister. That\u2019s\u2014as is always the case with opposition leaders in debates\u2014a lower bar to cross.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe the best way of putting this is I don\u2019t think the debate had a clear winner.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>READ:\u00a0Federal leaders debate: Could it be Prime Minister Erin O\u2019Toole?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_I_want_to_go_back_to_your_idea_of_this_campaign_being_over_by_now_can_you_walk_that_out_for_me\"><\/span>Q: I want to go back to your idea of this campaign being over by now, can you walk that out for me?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> My view was that something had to h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en to arrest Conservative momentum, which had built up over the course of the first few weeks, and it\u2019s pretty clear from the public opinion research that that has happened.The last aggregation I saw is that we\u2019re still in a tie game, and by tie game, I mean the difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives is within the margin of error for every poll I\u2019ve seen, and that means the focus of the campaigns is going to quickly turn to turnout.<\/p>\n<p>Broadly speaking, there are two kinds of campaigns: there are motivation campaigns and there are persuasion campaigns. Persuasion campaigns are where there\u2019s a large body of undecided people that you need to talk into voting for you who could vote for someone else. And motivation campaigns are ones where most people have already decided how they are going to vote and you can\u2019t really change their minds, but you need to get them to the polls. I think we are very clearly, as we were in 2019, in a motivation campaign.<\/p>\n<p>So the big question over the next week is whose voters are more motivated.\u00a0This is the really hard, grind-it-out\u2014I used a hockey analogy last time, this time I\u2019ll use a football analogy\u2026<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_I_think_you_used_seven_sports_analogies_last_time_but_carry_on\"><\/span><strong>Q: I think you used seven sports<\/strong> analogies<strong> last time, but carry on.<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> Well, I haven\u2019t used any yet! But it\u2019s kind of the running game of politics: how do you block and tackle, move the ball three yards every time you snap it? And that\u2019s what people mean when they talk about the ground game in politics, who has the best system to identify all of their probable voters and get them to the polls this week. That\u2019s what this election is going to come down to.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_But_to_circle_back_to_something_else_we_talked_about_last_time_the_idea_that_this_was_not_a_great_moment_to_do_this_and_the_electorate_is_depleted_and_distracted_does_that_fundamentally_change_a_motivation_election_When_were_all_worried_about_schools_closing_and_people_staying_healthy_and_jobs_that_seems_like_a_tall_order_when_voting_rates_are_not_terrific_in_this_country_to_begin_with\"><\/span>Q: But to circle back to something else we talked about last time, the idea that this was not a great moment to do this and the electorate is depleted and distracted, does that fundamentally change a motivation election? When we\u2019re all worried about schools closing and people staying healthy and jobs, that seems like a tall order when voting rates are not terrific in this country to begin with.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> They have been better in the last two elections, right? But I do think you\u2019re putting your finger on something really important. My assessment of things is people didn\u2019t want this election. And as I said last time, I think the governing party was surprised by both the depth of that feeling and its persistence over the course of the campaign. But this is Canada, and being Canadians, I think we begrudgingly decided to do our civic duty and tuned in after Labour Day. We [paid] attention probably through [last] weekend, [but] then our opinions locked in and we\u2019ll tune this whole thing back out. The rest will be about IDing and motivating voters.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>READ:\u00a0When is the 2021 Canadian federal election? How to get a mail-in ballot? And other FAQs<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_Weve_kicked_around_in_our_office_the_importance_of_when_people_get_together_with_other_people_and_talk_and_were_able_to_do_that_more_now_than_we_have_in_a_long_time_Paul_Wells_was_talking_about_the_Martin_election_over_Christmas_when_they_thought_no_one_would_pay_attention_but_it_turned_out_that_people_got_together_over_turkey_talked_and_things_set_in\"><\/span>Q: We\u2019ve kicked around in our office the importance of when people get together with other people and talk, and we\u2019re able to do that more now than we have in a long time. Paul Wells was talking about the Martin election over Christmas when they thought no one would pay attention, but it turned out that people got together over turkey, talked and things set in.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> I\u2019m a huge believer in that theory. I\u2019ve been involved in five elections at a high level and all of them were in October, and Thanksgiving was at a critical time period in all of them. We would organize the narrative of the campaign to come to a crescendo around Thanksgiving so that we could put our best foot forward while people were getting together to talk about what they were going to do.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_When_you_mentioned_the_Conservatives_and_the_idea_that_something_was_going_to_happen_to_halt_the_momentum_did_something_happen_or_do_you_think_they_just_reached_a_natural_ceiling_What_do_you_make_of_that_halted_momentum\"><\/span>Q: When you mentioned the Conservatives and the idea that something was going to happen to halt the momentum, <em>did<\/em> something happen or do you think they just reached a natural ceiling? What do you make of that halted momentum?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> It\u2019s hard to know without getting a look at nightly polling data, but it seemed to me\u2014and correlation is not causality\u2014that it was the weekend when the protests got really aggressive in Ontario. And the positive side of that is that the Prime Minister and the Liberal tour were present in Ontario, and of course when Ontario moves, the whole country moves because of math. So I think that if there were a sub-national, regional slide in the Liberal numbers in Ontario, it definitely stopped last weekend. And that would have been reflected in the overall national numbers. Whether that\u2019s directly related to the protests, I don\u2019t know, whether it\u2019s directly related to the advertising the Liberals put out and took a sharper turn on O\u2019Toole, that could be part it as well. But I think it\u2019s probably more likely related to the dynamic we were just talking about, which is it\u2019s Labour Day weekend, people are getting together, they\u2019re talking about it: \u201cI\u2019m really pissed off this election is happening, but do I really want to change the government?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I think if you were to summarize this election in one sentence, it would be that: I\u2019m really annoyed we\u2019re having this election, but do I want to change the government because I\u2019m annoyed we\u2019re having an election?<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_After_we_talked_last_time_I_thought_%E2%80%98Is_this_like_when_the_Trump_whisperers_would_go_on_the_Sunday_morning_shows_and_try_to_talk_to_him_Am_I_your_Ouija_board_And_if_I_am_am_I_your_Ouija_board_to_talk_to_Trudeau_and_company_or_to_the_electorate\"><\/span>Q: After we talked last time, I thought, \u2018Is this like when the Trump whisperers would go on the Sunday morning shows and try to talk to him?\u2019 Am I your Ouija board? And if I am, am I your Ouija board to talk to Trudeau and company, or to the electorate?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> It is what I said it was last time: you asked me what I thought was going on in the campaign, and I thought if you were asking me, you thought that I had something valuable to contribute. But to answer what I think is your question, which is a version of the question you asked me last time, I\u2019m not indirectly giving advice to anybody, and if I wanted to directly give advice to people, I would. I enjoyed my time in partisan politics. I\u2019m very happy it\u2019s over, but I still find it endlessly fascinating and hope that my views on it and experience in it are helpful to people in trying to understand what\u2019s going on with the nine-tenths of the iceberg that are below the water.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q_Got_it_So_if_this_thing_is_basically_over_by_now_whats_your_prediction_now\"><\/span>Q: Got it. So if this thing is basically over by now, what\u2019s your prediction now?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>A:<\/strong> I\u2019m going to stick with my prediction, which has been my prediction from the beginning. I think that we\u2019re still within five seats on either side of the status quo ante and the only thing that\u2019s really going to change that is whether one team has a more motivated group of workers who are going to generate a higher vote. I remember very clearly the 2015 campaign where our volunteers on the ground won the election, and we had a very good campaign, but as usual, the people at the top of it get all the credit when most of the credit goes to the people who knocked on doors and got their neighbours to support their preferred candidate. So to me, that\u2019s the thing to watch. And it\u2019s also the thing that all teams are going to spin aggressively over the next week. \u201cOur base has never been more motivated,\u201d you\u2019re going to hear that from all the parties.<\/p>\n<p>But the proof of that pudding will be in the eating, and the eating will be on election day.<br \/>\n<span class=\"ctx-article-root\"><!-- --><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async defer crossorigin=\"anonymous\" src=\"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/sdk.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/ottawa\/gerald-butts-on-the-final-days-of-the-campaign-its-basically-over\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#Gerald Butts on the final days of the Election 2021: &#8216;It&#8217;s basically over&#8217;&#8221; Two weeks into the federal election campaign, Maclean\u2019s spoke to Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a key architect of the 2015 and 2019 Liberal campaigns, about how he thought the the campaign had unfolded so far&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":339206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/CP132664527-766x431.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[68065,67806,109265,115811,90220,67817],"class_list":["post-339205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-conservatives","tag-editors-picks","tag-federal-election-2021","tag-federal-leaders-debate","tag-gerald-butts","tag-liberals"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=339205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339205\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/339206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=339205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=339205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=339205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}