{"id":342586,"date":"2021-09-21T18:14:59","date_gmt":"2021-09-21T15:14:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/a-600-million-federal-election-later-were-back-to-where-we-started\/"},"modified":"2021-09-21T18:14:59","modified_gmt":"2021-09-21T15:14:59","slug":"a-600-million-federal-election-later-were-back-to-where-we-started","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/a-600-million-federal-election-later-were-back-to-where-we-started\/","title":{"rendered":"#A $600 million federal election later, we’re back to where we started"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#A $600 million federal election later, we’re back to where we started<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Politics Insider for Sept. 21, 2021: Trudeau maintains his grip; O’Toole has some problems; and Legault is stymied\n <\/div>\n
\n Welcome to a sneak peek of the <\/em>Maclean\u2019s Politics Insider news<\/a>letter. Sign up to get it delivered straight to your inbox in the morning. <\/em><\/p>\n

After $600 million, six weeks, 150 polls, three debates, a handful of gravel thrown in anger, long lineups<\/a> and 13,513,848 votes<\/a>, we end up awfully close<\/a> to where we were when we started\u2014a Liberal minority<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Grim:<\/strong> Writing in Maclean\u2019s<\/em>, Shannon Proudfoot<\/strong> observes that it was an election that disapp<\/a>ointed everyone.<\/p>\n

It was, in perhaps the most grizzled and depressing way, a very grown-up campaign well-suited to an exhausted world<\/strong> that still cannot be rightly called post-pandemic. There were no starry eyes here, no thought that better is possible, no crowds surging on a wave of hope that maybe this time would be different. This was the election version of a marriage of convenience: grim, but gets the job done.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Still, a win\u2019s a win: Paul Wells<\/strong> points out,\u00a0though, that\u00a0a win is a win, and Trudeau has a better season ahead than Erin O\u2019Toole<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

In 2019 I dared hope that Justin Trudeau, returned to power with a smaller mandate, would take the lesson seriously and change the way he worked and imagined government. He didn\u2019t. He won\u2019t now either. He doesn\u2019t have it in him. He\u2019ll let his staff run every minister\u2019s office through staffers sent by the PMO, bottleneck every decision, sideline skeptics. Maybe it\u2019ll work better the fourth time his party seeks the voters\u2019 favour than it did the second and third. I mean\u2026 maybe? But a win is a win. Trudeau\u2019s problems now are the problems of power<\/strong>. He gets to implement a national daycare network, trip<\/a>le the federal carbon tax and the rebates that go with it, have some awkward chats with the families of Polytechnique victims and with\u2014hoo boy\u2014Joe Biden<\/strong>, watch for at least a year as the same Parliamentary committees that were controlled by the opposition continue to be controlled by the opposition.<\/p>\n

Frankly, these problems are fantastic compared to the problems Erin O\u2019Toole will face<\/strong>. The Conservative leader is\u2014as I write this based on shaky early returns that will probably change\u2014up about two points of popular vote in Ontario and four in Quebec over Andrew Scheer\u2019s<\/strong> 2019 result. That\u2019s after grabbing starkly more centrist positions on climate, firearms, same-sex rights and public finances than Scheer did.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Legault stymied? Justin Ling<\/strong> surveys the landscape in Quebec, and observes that Francois Legault<\/strong> is among the people who did not get what they wanted last night.<\/p>\n

The results are a clear sign that there are limits to Legault\u2019s popularity. While Quebecers may broadly support his approach to the pandemic, that\u2019s no guarantee his sky-high support will remain there. More broadly, the results may suggest that Quebecers remain unimpressed with the mating ritual being displayed by the party leaders<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Kenney and Bernier:<\/strong> A key part of the election was the struggle for Prairie votes, where Jason Kenney<\/strong> kneecapped the Tories and a Quebecer ended up playing spoiler, Jason Markusoff<\/strong> writes. Although Maxime Bernier<\/strong> didn\u2019t win any seats, his party changed the race.<\/p>\n

The People\u2019s Party came nowhere near winning anywhere, but did push past 10 per cent of the vote in some Western and rural Ontario ridings. And in contests dotted throughout the country\u2014tight races settled by far less than five percentage points\u2014those votes helped play spoiler to potential Conservative wins. Places like Cambridge and Niagara Centre in Ontario; South Okanagan-West Kootenay in B.C.; and, potentially, in Alberta\u2019s own Edmonton Centre. In his speech, Bernier treated his surge from five per cent of the Canadian popular vote (from one per cent in 2019) as a victory of sorts, a sign that his movement has a future. In the Calgary speech on the weekend, he tipped his hand that his primary intention is to create a protest\u00a0movement\u00a0<\/strong>rather than a constructive political one. \u201cI will be with you in the streets to protest, to fight, fight for freedom,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Personnel changes:<\/strong> It was a night of\u00a0 exits and entrances. Gone are Liberals Bernadette Jordan<\/strong> (fisheries minister),\u00a0 Maryam Monsef<\/strong> (minister of rural economic development),\u00a0Lenore Zann<\/strong> and Scott Simms<\/strong>. Liberals Yasir Naqvi<\/strong> and\u00a0George Chahal<\/strong> are new faces, as are Green Mike Morrice<\/strong> and Conservative Melissa Lantsman<\/strong>. CTV has a rundown<\/a> of winners and losers, although it will take a few days to sort out, given all the close races and the delay while we wait for Elections Canada to count mail-in ballots.<\/p>\n

No seat for Paul:<\/strong> It was tough night for besieged Green leader Annamie Paul<\/strong>, who came fourth<\/a> in her riding, CBC reports.<\/p>\n

Lost bet:<\/strong> In La Presse<\/em>, Paul Journet<\/strong> has a scathing column<\/a>\u00a0(translation<\/a>), calling it a losers\u2019 election.<\/p>\n

What were these elections used for? Nothing. Aside from wasting $600 million, politicizing the vaccination campaign and dividing the country even further. The numbers are practically the same. All that has changed are some faces. Including that of Justin Trudeau, who smiles less.<\/strong> He retains power, but loses his bet.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Relieved Liberals:<\/strong> In a column<\/a> in the Star<\/em>, Susan Delacourt<\/strong> isn\u2019t as downbeat, but she observes it is a \u201ccomplicated saga.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

As far as I can tell, Trudeau did not do much consulting<\/strong> when deciding to spring this election on the country and some Liberals will be arguing\u2014correctly\u2014that this all-too-close election happened because voices of dissent on a summer election were discounted or not heard at all. It all says that Trudeau and his team have every right to be relieved, but not triumphal.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Whither O\u2019Toole?<\/strong> In the Post<\/em>, John Ivison<\/strong> writes<\/a> that Trudeau held \u201can opportunistic election in the middle of a pandemic,\u201d but notes the potential for trouble ahead for O\u2019Toole.<\/p>\n

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The Conservatives prepared the ground for defeat in an extraordinary intervention by campaign chair Walied Soliman<\/strong>, on election day, when he told the Toronto Star<\/em> that holding Trudeau to a minority would be a win. Given polling that had the Tories hitting record lows over the summer, it is an understandable impulse. But saying it while the polls were still open and there was still the prospect of an upset, was highly unusual. Soliman\u2019s comments speak to the lack of job security for any modern Conservative leader who loses<\/strong>, but especially one who was elected by only one-third of the party members in the last leadership contest.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

For the record:<\/strong> What did the leaders say after the results were in? Read our transcripts<\/strong> of last night speeches:<\/span><\/p>\n

Erin O\u2019Toole<\/strong>: <\/span>\u2018I will never stop serving this great country\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Jagmeet Singh<\/strong>: <\/span>\u2018We are going to fight for you with everything we have\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Justin Trudeau<\/strong>: <\/span>\u2018Our government is ready\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/section>\n

Later today:<\/strong> For more post-election analysis, tune to our next Twitter Space<\/a> at 2 p.m., featuring a cast of Maclean\u2019s<\/em> writers and contributors.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Stephen Maher<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n