{"id":349626,"date":"2021-10-07T17:25:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-07T14:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/cme-bitcoin-derivative-traders-had-paper-hands-as-btc-broke-55k-report\/"},"modified":"2021-10-07T17:25:00","modified_gmt":"2021-10-07T14:25:00","slug":"cme-bitcoin-derivative-traders-had-paper-hands-as-btc-broke-55k-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/cme-bitcoin-derivative-traders-had-paper-hands-as-btc-broke-55k-report\/","title":{"rendered":"# CME Bitcoin derivative traders had \u2018paper hands\u2019 as BTC broke $55K \u2014 Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3dfb822da03\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3dfb822da03\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/cme-bitcoin-derivative-traders-had-paper-hands-as-btc-broke-55k-report\/#Smart_money\" >Smart money<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/cme-bitcoin-derivative-traders-had-paper-hands-as-btc-broke-55k-report\/#Bitcoin_supply_squeeze_in_play\" >Bitcoin supply squeeze in play<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># CME Bitcoin derivative traders had \u2018paper hands\u2019 as BTC broke $55K \u2014 Report <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) missed out on incredible profits as BTC\u2019s\u00a0spot price smashed through $55,000 this week.<\/p>\n<p>Retail investors reduced their long exposure across the Bitcoin futures and options markets in late September, according to data <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ecoinometrics.substack.com\/p\/ecoinometrics-exchanges-outflow\">shared<\/a> by Ecoinometrics. The amount of open short positions also climbed, indicating that derivative traders anticipated Bitcoin\u2019s price to drop, as shown in the chart below.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/6c7e0b83-f4ac-4538-b561-8a2321c7771a.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>CME Bitcoin derivatives \u2014 retail traders. Source: CFTC \u201cCommitments of Traders\u201d report, Ecoinometrics<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The data was taken on Sept. 28, when BTC price had fallen below $41,000 on Coinbase \u2014 down almost 23% from its month-to-date high near $52,950. The drop surfaced in the aftermath of China\u2019s decision to ban all kinds of crypto transactions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMost likely, this dip is due to a mix of traders not rolling their long positions to the October contract and some outright liquidating when BTC looked like it was going to drop below $40k last week,\u201d said Nick, an analyst at Ecoinometrics.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cRegardless, the overall picture is that the futures traders lack conviction.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s paper hands 101,\u201d the analyst noted.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Smart_money\"><\/span>Smart money<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Institutional investors in the CME Bitcoin futures market also followed retail sentiment as they reduced their long exposure in the market. But, on the other hand, their short positions climbed.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/4eb63cc8-b55d-430d-a910-139c48b74689.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>CME Bitcoin derivatives \u2014 smart money. Source: CFTC \u201cCommitments of Traders\u201d report, Ecoinometrics<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>With CME options traders convinced that Bitcoin price would drop, the number of puts \u2014 an implicitly bearish bet on Bitcoin\u2019s price \u2014 turned out to be almost twice the size of the calls, or bets on potential Bitcoin price gains. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/2f9edad1-5ab4-4c90-bfe8-229479649f88.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>CME Bitcoin options \u2014 puts vs. calls open interest. Source: Ecoinometrics<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Traders\u2019 position distribution made $40,000\u00a0the most sought-after strike price target.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, some options traders bet that the spot Bitcoin price would hit $60,000 by the end of October. Additionally, analyst Crypto Hedger highlighted that Bitcoin options expiring on Nov. 26 show bulls\u2019 sentiment skewed toward the $80,000-strike target. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/39f6440b-c7d8-44a3-83a0-a5061d65f157.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Buy\/sell volume in the last 24 hours for Nov. 26 Bitcoin options contract. Source: Laevitas, Crypto Hedger<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cAt this current growth pace, Bitcoin has formed very strong support at the $50,000 price point, and short-term traders may also need to watch out for the key resistance level around $56,000,\u201d said Konstantin Anissimov, executive director of CEX.IO, adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cA break below or above these levels can stir another cataclysmic price reversal or a massive run toward $60,000 in Q4.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_supply_squeeze_in_play\"><\/span>Bitcoin supply squeeze in play<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>On-chain data shared by Ecoinometrics also showed a higher level of Bitcoin withdrawals from all the crypto exchanges.<\/p>\n<p>In detail, Bitcoin\u2019s 30-day net exchange flow has been rising since July 2020, as noted in the color-coded chart below, with blue and red indicating extreme outflow and inflow, respectively.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/048defc9-5f9e-481e-bf4b-b5d18f69debf.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin rolling net exchange flow. Source: Coinmetrics<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Ecoinometrics noted that the amount of Bitcoin currently leaving exchanges is higher than it was in the previous four-year halving cycles.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/eae1e1c8-50bc-4cd8-9eec-250eba91a538.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin rolling net exchange inflow (second halving vs. third). Source: Coinmetrics\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Meanwhile, traders see the reduction in Bitcoin\u2019s supply on exchanges, with increasing \u201chodling\u201d activity, as further catalysts for a liquidity crisis and more price upside.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: Bitcoin \u2018heavy breakout\u2019 fractal suggests BTC price can hit $250K\u2013$350K in 2021<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cBack then there were indeed periods of net outflows but in terms of size they look much less dramatic than what we have right now,\u201d Ecoinometrics highlighted, adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThat\u2019s another sign that we are on course for a liquidity crisis which could drive Bitcoin\u2019s value much higher than it is right now.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. 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Retail investors reduced their long exposure across the Bitcoin futures and options markets in late September, according&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":349627,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMTAvYzk0OGJjOWItODdmNC00ZThiLTkxNzAtNzg4NjRjMTYwMDVmLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[79806,74862,81951,74972,74937,74982,82962,74863,75012,75846,74939,73785],"class_list":["post-349626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analysis","tag-bitcoin-futures","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc-markets","tag-coinmarketcap","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-derivatives","tag-futures","tag-market-analysis","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349626","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=349626"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349626\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/349627"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=349626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=349626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=349626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}