{"id":349668,"date":"2021-10-07T15:04:54","date_gmt":"2021-10-07T12:04:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/bitcoin-bears-risk-getting-trapped-if-btc-price-remains-above-50k-heres-why\/"},"modified":"2021-10-07T15:04:54","modified_gmt":"2021-10-07T12:04:54","slug":"bitcoin-bears-risk-getting-trapped-if-btc-price-remains-above-50k-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-bears-risk-getting-trapped-if-btc-price-remains-above-50k-heres-why\/","title":{"rendered":"# Bitcoin bears risk getting trapped if BTC price remains above $50K \u2014 Here\u2019s why"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a4175ce73de0\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a4175ce73de0\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-bears-risk-getting-trapped-if-btc-price-remains-above-50k-heres-why\/#Open_interest_is_fairly_balanced_between_bulls_and_bears\" >Open interest is fairly balanced between bulls and bears<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-bears-risk-getting-trapped-if-btc-price-remains-above-50k-heres-why\/#Bears_are_wrecked_one_way_or_another\" >Bears are wrecked one way or another<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Bitcoin bears risk getting tr<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ed if BTC price remains above $50K \u2014 Here\u2019s why <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC) 32% weekly rally became bears\u2019 worst nightmare as Friday\u2019s $860million options expiry is approaching. After breaking the $54,000 level, over 99% of the bearish bets using put (sell) options are likely to become worthless.<\/p>\n<p>Bears are in a dangerous position, particularly as Bloomberg\u2019s Crypto Outlook pointed out that Bitcoin\u2019s $50,000 resistance was about to flip support. Senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone cited such factors as increasing adoption along with a diminishing supply on exchanges.<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg also noted that traditional finance investors\u2019 concerns surged after the protection against the possibility of a United States government default rose to its highest level in six years. Moreover, one-year credit-default swaps, or the cost to insure against a payment delay, have risen to 27 basis points from 4 basis points since mid-September.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/cbfff355-cbbf-47b7-b5dc-c0da247bec4b.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin price at Bitstamp in USD. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Another crucial metric that certainly fueled this week\u2019s bull run was Bitcoin\u2019s hash rate, the estimated processing power backing the network miners. The capacity took a big blow in May, as China vetoed coal-based energy use for mining cryptocurrencies. Then, in early June, the country decided to\u00a0ban cryptocurrency mining for good, which temporarily took many miners offline, impacting the hash rate.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/d6e81ed7-1028-4c2f-9c66-5d698afb29b9.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate in terahashes per second. Source: Blockchain.com<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This week, the bulls picked up on these favorable conditions and pushed Bitcoin to its highest level since May 12 at $55,000. As for the $860-million options expiry on Friday, Oct. 8, bears need a miracle to push the price below $50,000 to avoid significant losses.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/a5a07aba-2774-4d1f-b5f2-1dd0e53b6af0.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 8. Source: Bybt<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As the above data shows, bears placed $400 million in bets for Friday\u2019s expiry, but it appears that they were caught by surprise as 99% of the put (sell) options are likely to become worthless. <\/p>\n<p>In other words, if Bitcoin remains above $54,000 on Friday, only $2.7 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options will be activated on the expiry. A right to sell (put option) Bitcoin at $50,000 becomes worthless if BTC trades above that price at 8:00 am UTC on Friday.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Open_interest_is_fairly_balanced_between_bulls_and_bears\"><\/span>Open interest is fairly balanced between bulls and bears<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The 1.16 call-to-put ratio represents the slight difference between the $465 million worth of call (buy) options versus the $400 million in put (sell) options. Although favoring bulls, this broader view needs a more detailed analysis because some bets are implausible considering the current price.<\/p>\n<p>Below are the four likeliest scenarios for Friday\u2019s expiry. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of calls (buy) and puts (sell) contracts becoming active varies:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Between $48,000 and $50,000: <\/strong>3,515 calls vs.1,765 puts. The net result is $85 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Between $50,000 and $54,000: <\/strong>6,270 calls vs. 735 puts. The net result is $290 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Between $54,000 and $56,000: <\/strong>6,930 calls vs. 50 puts. The net result is $370 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Above $56,000: <\/strong>7,600 calls vs. 0 puts. The net result is a complete dominance with bulls profiting $425 million.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish bets and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, investors might have used a more complex strategy that typically involves different expiry dates.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bears_are_wrecked_one_way_or_another\"><\/span>Bears are wrecked one way or another<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>To sum up, the bulls have absolute control of Friday\u2019s expiry and enough incentives to keep the price above $54,000. On the other hand, bears need a 10% negative move below $50,000 to avoid the $370-million loss. <\/p>\n<p>However, one must consider that during bull runs, like the one Bitcoin is in right now, the amount of effort a seller needs to put in to liquidate longs is immense and usually ineffective. Put simply, if no surprises come before Oct. 8, Bitcoin should continue its rally to higher prices.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>author<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-bears-risk-getting-trapped-if-btc-price-remains-above-50k-here-s-why\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Bitcoin bears risk getting trapped if BTC price remains above $50K \u2014 Here\u2019s why &#8221; Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC) 32% weekly rally became bears\u2019 worst nightmare as Friday\u2019s $860million options expiry is approaching. After breaking the $54,000 level, over 99% of the bearish bets using put (sell) options are likely to become worthless. Bears are in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":349669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMTAvZTJlYzViMGItZDUzYy00NzQzLWJhMjQtZDk4YWFiMmEzYmM5LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,81209,75147,74982,75012,73785],"class_list":["post-349668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bloomberg","tag-btc-markets","tag-derivatives","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=349668"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349668\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/349669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=349668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=349668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=349668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}