{"id":349934,"date":"2021-10-08T06:52:37","date_gmt":"2021-10-08T03:52:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/arcane-research-predicts-700-million-lightning-network-users-by-2030\/"},"modified":"2021-10-08T06:52:37","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T03:52:37","slug":"arcane-research-predicts-700-million-lightning-network-users-by-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/arcane-research-predicts-700-million-lightning-network-users-by-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"# Arcane Research predicts 700 million Lightning Network users by 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2906260143c\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2906260143c\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/arcane-research-predicts-700-million-lightning-network-users-by-2030\/#Current_capacity\" >Current capacity<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/arcane-research-predicts-700-million-lightning-network-users-by-2030\/#El_Salvador_and_other_countries\" >El Salvador and other countries<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Arcane Research predicts 700 million Lightning Network users by 2030 <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>The research unit of Arcane Crypto predicts the Lightning Network will go parabolic as adoption of the Bitcoin layer-two payment protocol ramps up over the decade. <\/p>\n<p>Arcane Research <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.research.arcane.no\/the-state-of-lightning\">published<\/a> the \u201cState of Lightning\u201d report on Oct. 5, and analyzed the Lightning Network in terms of current capacity, wallet payment volume, the growing rate of adoption, and the switch from online services to everyday usage. <\/p>\n<p>The report provides ambitious estimates for the future of the Lighting Network, such as 90% of Salvadorians over the age of 15 having access to Lightning payments by 2026, and 50 million Lightning users, representing $17 billion in annualized payments, for things like remittances and household expenditure by 2030. <\/p>\n<p>Arcane sees gaming and streaming video and audio as a major use case for Lightning with streaming companies such as Spotify or Netflix able to utilize the network for micro-transactions to offer pay per minute, or persecond streaming services, representing an \u201cenormous\u201d chance to onboard new Lightning users.<\/p>\n<p>It forecasts 700 million users in these categories by 2030. Using an estimate of 1 hours per day on these services, and 25% of the time spent on those with Lightning payments, Arcane assumes there will be one micro-transaction per second:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Our estimate then equals no less than 364 trillion Lightning transactions per year,&#8221; the report says. <\/p>\n<p>The research was conducted in collaboration with Bitcoin payments company OpenNode, and highlights how usage of the Lightning Network sharply increased since late last year.\u00a0 El Salvador\u2019s adoption of Bitcoin (BTC) on Sept. 7 propelled the network ever further: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cIn September 2021 growth went parabolic. This was driven mainly by the introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador.\u201d <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The report also highlights the significance of peer-to-peer crypto exchange Paxful enabling Lighting payments to its user base of 7 million last month, as well as <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u2019s integration with the network by launching a BTC tipping service for its 186 million users. <\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Current_capacity\"><\/span>Current capacity<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Since Lighting went live on Bitcoin nearly three years ago the network has grown to hold a capacity of almost 3,000 BTC, with 17,000 nodes operating on the network and 73,700 unique channels.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs of writing, the public Bitcoin capacity on Lightning equals more than $120 million, with users across the world finding value in the option to conduct near-instant small payments at very negligible fees,\u201d the report read. <\/p>\n<p>But while publicly available metrics such as total channel capacity show rapid growth in adoption, wallet payment volumes have far out performed that metric since August. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have focused on mainstream usage through wallet providers, as we believe this is the best measuring stick of adoption. Therefore, the estimated numbers do not contain the activity from developers, channel rebalancing, most b2b transactions, etc,\u201d the report read. <\/p>\n<p>According to Arcane, wallet payment volume has increased by 20% month-over-month since August, which far exceeds the monthly growth rate of 10% from the metric of channel capacity. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn September, the discrepancy widened further, with payment volume almost doubling compared to a 26% increase in public channel capacity,\u201d the report read. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/d28ae876-5fb9-409d-90f4-b0847e3248fa.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Payment volume: Arcane Research <\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"El_Salvador_and_other_countries\"><\/span>El Salvador and other countries<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Arcane estimates that close to 90% of the population from El Salvador 15 years or older will have access to Lightning payments by 2026. <\/p>\n<p>The estimate relies on a range of central assumptions such as a 15% yearly growth rate of internet adoption previously seen in 2018 and 2019, along with president Nayib Bukele\u2019s figure of 2.1 million Chivo wallet users from September being correct.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Bitcoin Lightning nodes and channels hit record highs<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The report predicts that if other countries with \u201cpoor banking access\u201d can follow the suit of El Salvador, there could be 50 million Lightning users who would represent $17 billion in annualized payment volume on the network by 2030.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/f9baeb80-9d01-458a-8be9-1c59ef4f5fe8.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Potential adoption growth in El Salvador: Arcane Research<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/arcane-research-predicts-700-million-lightning-network-users-by-2030\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Arcane Research predicts 700 million Lightning Network users by 2030 &#8221; The research unit of Arcane Crypto predicts the Lightning Network will go parabolic as adoption of the Bitcoin layer-two payment protocol ramps up over the decade. Arcane Research published the \u201cState of Lightning\u201d report on Oct. 5, and analyzed the Lightning Network in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":349935,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMTAvZWEwMzNkYzQtYTE4Ni00YjFiLThhMjYtZjY1MmE4Zjk1MjUwLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[76276,75029,82450,76854,76168,74355,90059,10401],"class_list":["post-349934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin-payments","tag-lightning-network","tag-micropayments","tag-paxful","tag-unbanked","tag-adoption","tag-el-salvador","tag-twitter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=349934"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/349934\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/349935"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=349934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=349934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=349934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}