{"id":353440,"date":"2021-10-15T23:38:42","date_gmt":"2021-10-15T20:38:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/traders-celebrate-bitcoins-impending-etf-but-options-markets-are-less-certain\/"},"modified":"2021-10-15T23:38:42","modified_gmt":"2021-10-15T20:38:42","slug":"traders-celebrate-bitcoins-impending-etf-but-options-markets-are-less-certain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/traders-celebrate-bitcoins-impending-etf-but-options-markets-are-less-certain\/","title":{"rendered":"# Traders celebrate Bitcoin&#8217;s impending ETF, but options markets are less certain"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3e3a423b4a1\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3e3a423b4a1\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/traders-celebrate-bitcoins-impending-etf-but-options-markets-are-less-certain\/#70000_call_options_see_their_implied_probability_hit_25\" >$70,000 call options see their implied probability hit 25%<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/traders-celebrate-bitcoins-impending-etf-but-options-markets-are-less-certain\/#Traders_should_not_take_options_probabilities_literally\" >Traders should not take options probabilities literally<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Traders celebrate Bitcoin&#8217;s impending ETF, but options markets are less certain <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>The United States Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, is expected to rule on Oct. 18 whether to <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>rove an application from asset manager ProShare Capital Management for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As previously reported by Cointelegraph, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler recently suggested that the regulator is more inclined to approve indirect-exposure Bitcoin futures ETFs under the Investment Company Act of 1940.<\/p>\n<p>On Oct.15, the Nasdaq Stock Market certified the registration of Valkyrie&#8217;s Bitcoin Strategy ETF shares for listing. The deadline for the SEC to officially approve Valkyrie&#8217;s ETF application is Oct. 25, but this could be extended to Dec. 8.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"70000_call_options_see_their_implied_probability_hit_25\"><\/span>$70,000 call options see their implied probability hit 25%<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Two weeks ago, it would have been a daunting task to find an investor willing to bet on a $70,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price for Oct. 29. A 62% upside was needed from the $43,100 price on Sep. 30, and this seemed far-fetched at that time. Therefore, the Oct. $70,000 BTC call (buy) options traded on Sep. 30 at Deribit for $194, or 0.0045 BTC.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2021-10\/7e6a5d2d-25e8-42e6-a3cc-ef3e8f7b532a.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin Oct. 29 call options price in BTC. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As shown above, the same option is currently trading at $1,570, or 0.0262 BTC, as Bitcoin rallied by 39% month-to-date to $60,000. So, even though this is still a long way to go for the $70,000 call option, the odds have significantly increased.<\/p>\n<p>Even with the BTC price increase, the implied options probability (delta) currently sits at 25%, which might sound bearish at first sight. <\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Traders_should_not_take_options_probabilities_literally\"><\/span>Traders should not take options probabilities literally<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Options pricing is heavily dependent on how distant the expiry date is. Considering Bitcoin&#8217;s 4% daily volatility, anything can happen ahead of the Oct. 29 options expiry. Therefore, traders should not fixate too much on options implied probability (delta).<\/p>\n<p>To better assess the odds of Bitcoin&#8217;s ETF approval by the end of the month, one should use the $50,000 delta as the &#8216;base&#8217; scenario. Traders should assume that a 17% price drop would definitively signal that the decision by the U.S. SEC was either delayed or rejected. <\/p>\n<p>Considering that the $50,000 call option is trading at an 84% delta, or implied probability, investors are pricing a 16% odds for a doomsday scenario.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the $70,000 call option for Oct. 29 at 8:00 am UTC, which indicates that the ETF has been approved, presents a 25% implied probability. Options markets undoubtedly show higher odds for a positive move, but far from a certainty.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>author<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/traders-celebrate-bitcoin-s-impending-etf-but-options-markets-are-less-certain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Traders celebrate Bitcoin&#8217;s impending ETF, but options markets are less certain &#8221; The United States Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, is expected to rule on Oct. 18 whether to approve an application from asset manager ProShare Capital Management for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).\u00a0 As previously reported by Cointelegraph, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":353441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjEtMTAvZjdiMTBiMWItOTRmOS00Nzg3LThiZDQtNWYxNTQ4ZGFjZDAyLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,81209,74937,75012,75849,73785],"class_list":["post-353440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-derivatives","tag-etf","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/353440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=353440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/353440\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/353441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=353440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=353440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=353440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}