{"id":381055,"date":"2021-12-14T21:11:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-14T18:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/omicron-versus-booster-shots-the-high-stakes-race-in-canada-is-on\/"},"modified":"2021-12-14T21:11:00","modified_gmt":"2021-12-14T18:11:00","slug":"omicron-versus-booster-shots-the-high-stakes-race-in-canada-is-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/omicron-versus-booster-shots-the-high-stakes-race-in-canada-is-on\/","title":{"rendered":"#Omicron versus booster shots: The high-stakes race in Canada is on"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#Omicron versus booster shots: The high-stakes race in Canada is on<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Most provinces off to a painfully slow start giving third doses of the vaccine, and one expert warns that new variant will make things ‘pretty ugly’\n <\/div>\n
\n Dr. Andrew Morris isn\u2019t surprised by the surge in COVID cases across the country, up from an average of 2,500 a day a month ago to 4,100 on Dec. 13. \u201cI\u2019ve been saying for a long, long time that we would be getting into this situation,\u201d says the Toronto-based infectious disease specialist, \u201cand there is no plausible situation where we will not have the same experience as Europe.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Morris, who is medical director of the Sinai Health System-University Health Network Antimicrobial Stewardship Program, is referring to soaring case counts on the continent a few months ago. In Canada, he says, \u201cwe\u2019ve been fooling ourselves to think we could avoid this, and it\u2019s been put on steroids because of Omicron.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

READ:\u00a0With the Omicron variant on the rise, should you attend your work Christmas party?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The gloom surrounding our pandemic situation has deepened in recent days. On Friday, Dec. 10, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada\u2019s chief public health officer, released new pandemic\u00a0<\/span>modelling<\/span><\/a>, which forecasts around 7,500 cases a day by January, even if our transmission levels remain static. If transmission increases by as little as 15 per cent, or if the new Omicron variant is established, that same modelling projects more than 12,000 cases a day before New Year\u2019s.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Omicron is definitely expanding quickly in Canada. On Dec. 12, Ontario\u2019s Science<\/a> Table<\/span> estimated<\/span><\/a> that the variant\u2019s share of new cases in the province was 20 per cent, and that its case count was doubling every three days. The next day, that share had jumped to 30.8 per cent and its effective reproduction number (Rt) had climbed from 3.32 to 4.01 (meaning every infected person infects four others); in contrast, Delta\u2019s Rt is 1.09. The rate of exponential growth is so quick that Omicron <\/span>should overtake Delta<\/span><\/a> as the most prevalent variant in a day or two, according to Dr. Peter J\u00fcni, head of the Science Table.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As researchers learn more about the high transmissibility of Omicron, and as early data comes in on how vaccines are handling the newest variant of interest, the need to speed up third doses is becoming clearer. To Morris, being \u201cfully vaccinated\u201d now means having three doses of COVID-19 vaccines, plus 14 days.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet, the overall third-dose rollouts have been painfully slow: only seven per cent of Canada\u2019s total population have received third doses, <\/span>as of Dec. 13<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Percentage of total population with three doses of COVID-19 vaccine<\/span><\/p>\n

B.C.: 11%
<\/span>Alberta.: 11
<\/span>Saskatchewan: 10
<\/span>Manitoba: n\/a
<\/span>Ontario: 8
Quebec: 5
<\/span>New Brunswick: 8
<\/span>Nova Scotia: 4
<\/span>P.E.I.: 5
<\/span>Newfoundland: n\/a
<\/span>Yukon: 21
<\/span>Nunavut: 29
<\/span>Nunavut: n\/a
<\/span>CANADA: 7<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: COVID-19 Tracker Canada (data as of Dec. 13); Statistics Canada<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Morris cites two big mistakes by Canadian governments in the past two months: minimizing the benefits of third dose; and what he calls a \u201csilly strategy\u201d of delaying rollouts of third doses until they saw evidence in this country of waning immunity from two doses of vaccine, even though there was evidence from around the world that such waning would hit us.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThose errors have led us to where we are today,\u201d he says. \u201cThere was zero benefit to waiting; now they have zero capacity to roll out immunizations.\u201d Indeed, as demand soars, public health units <\/span>are reporting<\/span><\/a> that all available vaccine app<\/a>ointments have been booked until the New Year, though they are trying to open more slots.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe public is tired, they want to get on and enjoy life,\u201d explains Morris. \u201cThe real problem is that the government doesn\u2019t know what to do. They don\u2019t know how far to push the public, especially when they see that the health-care system capacity isn\u2019t changing much.\u201d Because hospitalizations and ICU admissions always lag rising case counts, Morris warns, governments might not act until it\u2019s too late. (After a surge of COVID hospital admissions forced Kingston, Ont., to airlift ICU patients to other cities, it <\/span>capped<\/span><\/a> private gatherings at five people on Dec. 14. At the same time, indoor restaurant dining can continue, at least until 10 p.m. each evening.)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re only worried about your personal risk, there\u2019s no reason why you can\u2019t gather if you\u2019re well protected,\u201d says Morris, adding that \u201cthe ring of protection of the vaccines\u201d should mean fewer cases of severe COVID, even as Omicron becomes more prevalent. He thinks that most people fully vaccinated with three doses probably won\u2019t have symptoms, or will experience mild ones, if they contract COVID-19, while those with two doses will likely have a mild form of the disease.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m fairly certain that people who, for whatever reason, are not being vaccinated <\/span>will <\/span><\/i>get COVID,\u201d he states. \u201cThe question that we have now is: are they all going to get it at once because of Omicron, and will that be accelerated by [holiday] parties? Or will it be slower so our health care system won\u2019t totally get walloped?\u201d In addition, if governments don\u2019t push out boosters \u201cincredibly aggressively\u201d and inform everyone of how they are going to slow transmission, he thinks it\u2019s possible that<\/span> pretty much everyone could<\/span> get infected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe problem is that if we start seeing substantial numbers of outbreaks, or even faster-than-necessary spread of Omicron, this could end up putting a massive strain on the health-care system.\u201d In the past five weeks, we\u2019ve averaged a Rt value substantially higher than what was experienced last December, when the third wave crashed down on most of Canada, causing hospitals to be overburdened and prompting government lockdowns, explains Morris.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, the health care system is even more fragile, and he is more pessimistic than he\u2019s ever been during this pandemic. When asked to describe Canada\u2019s future, he uses two words:\u00a0 \u201cPretty ugly.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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