{"id":393635,"date":"2022-01-13T21:33:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-13T18:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/commodities-corner-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-arent-fully-priced-into-commodities\/"},"modified":"2022-01-13T21:33:00","modified_gmt":"2022-01-13T18:33:00","slug":"commodities-corner-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-arent-fully-priced-into-commodities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/commodities-corner-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-arent-fully-priced-into-commodities\/","title":{"rendered":"#Commodities Corner: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine aren\u2019t fully priced into commodities"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a329304d1c38\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a329304d1c38\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/commodities-corner-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-arent-fully-priced-into-commodities\/#Potential_conflict_raises_disruption_risks_for_natural_gas_wheat_and_corn\" >Potential conflict raises disruption risks for natural gas, wheat and corn<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/commodities-corner-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-arent-fully-priced-into-commodities\/#Myra_P_Saefong\" >Myra P. Saefong<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#Commodities Corner: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine aren\u2019t fully priced into commodities<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Potential_conflict_raises_disruption_risks_for_natural_gas_wheat_and_corn\"><\/span>\n  Potential conflict raises disruption risks for natural gas, wheat and corn<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"article body\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000551656\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000551656\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are on the rise, and traders have yet to fully recognize the risks a conflict would pose to the commodities market, particularly natural gas, wheat, and corn.<\/p>\n<p> A potential conflict could raise the possibility of disruptions to commodity flows, says Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. The U.S. and European Union may also react in the event of a conflict, leading to sanctions against Russia that could have an \u201cimpact on the supply of a number of commodities to world markets,\u201d he says \u2014 and none of these factors are priced into the market.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       Negotiators from the U.S. and Russia recently held talks on tensions over Ukraine amid Russia\u2019s military buildup along its border. The\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/russia-nato-meet-over-ukraine-impasse-11641987171?mod=article_inline\" class=\"icon none\">discussions showed little progress<\/a>. U.S. and its allies have looked at economic sanctions on Russia if Moscow sends troops across the Ukrainian border.<\/p>\n<p>Natural gas is among the commodities most likely to see an impact should the situation intensify, says Patterson. \u201cUkraine is an important transit route for Russian flows to Europe\u201d and Russia is a key supplier of natural gas to the EU, meeting almost 50% of the region\u2019s import demand, he says.<\/p>\n<p>Natural-gas prices last year spiked\u00a0as higher global demand from hot summer weather and lower energy output from wind turbines contributed to a sharp drawdown in supplies of the fuel.<\/p>\n<p>Europe is reliant upon Russian gas transiting through Ukraine, and particularly so given 2022 has started with record-low European gas stocks, with Germany yet to <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>rove or certify flows through \u201cRussia\u2019s alternative route,\u201d the now-complete\u00a0Nord Stream 2 pipeline, says James Huckstepp, manager of EMEA gas analytics at S&amp;P Global Platts. Front-month European natural-gas benchmark TTF  prices trade at more than four times their five-year average, he says, and have been volatile in recent months.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theice.com\/products\/27996665\/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures\/data?marketId=5285051&amp;span=1\" class=\"icon none\">February Dutch TTF gas futures traded<\/a> at 75.90 euros ($86.86) per megawatt-hour on Jan. 12. Prices for the contract recently peaked at close to \u20ac180 in December but were about \u20ac18.62 a year ago. Platts Analytics expects flows through Ukraine to continue and that prices will come off significantly after Nord Stream 2 is certified in the third quarter of this year, says Huckstepp.<\/p>\n<p>But the recent rise in tensions at the Ukrainian border puts the pipeline at risk of further delay or outright cancellation, which would lead to \u201cextreme prices and volatility continuing into 2023,\u201d he says. To gauge the risk to future Russian flows, traders need to watch not only what happens in Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, but also Washington, where renewed sanctions on Nord Stream 2 remain on the table.<\/p>\n<p>A potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine could also leave wheat and corn markets vulnerable, since both are significant suppliers of these commodities, says ING\u2019s Patterson.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine is expected to\u00a0export over 24 million metric tons of wheat\u00a0in the current marketing year, accounting for almost 12% of total global exports, says Peter Meyer, head of grain and oilseeds analytics at S&amp;P Global Platts. The country\u2019s corn exports, meanwhile, are expected to reach 32.5 million metric tons, or almost 16% of global exports, he says.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetPullQuote\n            inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetPullQuote\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"wsj-article-pullquote article__inset__pullquote \">\n<p class=\"pullquote-content article__inset__pullquote__quote\">\n        <span class=\"l-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--left\">\u201c<\/span>\u201cAny disruption at Black Sea ports could prove to be a market mover should the conflict escalate.\u201d<span class=\"r-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--right\">\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p>        <small><br \/>\n          <span class=\"inset-author article__inset__pullquote__author\">\u2014 Peter Meyer, S&amp;P Global Platts<\/span><br \/>\n        <\/small><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Corn<br \/>\n        CH22,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/215552760\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-1.88%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n<p>        C00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/209710348\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-1.88%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       and wheat<br \/>\n        WH22,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/213232499\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-1.78%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n<p>        W00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210389638\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-1.78%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       prices rallied in the spring of 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea, Meyer says. Ukraine\u2019s market share of global corn exports has remained about the same as it was eight years ago. However, total corn exports are up 62.5% since then, he says, and its wheat export market share has also nearly doubled.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAny disruption at Black Sea ports could prove to be a market mover should the conflict escalate,\u201d Meyer says, but for now, \u201cit\u2019s business as usual despite rising tensions.\u201d<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Myra P. Saefong\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/topics\/journalists\/myra-p-saefong\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"twitter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MktwSaefong\",\"text\":\"@MktwSaefong\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"email\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/mailto:mpicache@marketwatch.com\",\"text\":\"mpicache@marketwatch.com\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Myra_P_Saefong\"><\/span>Myra P. Saefong<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-786A-E8FEE0E8E970%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#Commodities Corner: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine aren\u2019t fully priced into commodities&#8221; Potential conflict raises disruption risks for natural gas, wheat and corn Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are on the rise, and traders have yet to fully recognize the risks a conflict would pose to the commodities market, particularly natural gas, wheat, and corn&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":393636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-467409\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-393635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=393635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/393636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=393635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=393635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=393635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}