{"id":398175,"date":"2022-01-23T21:58:44","date_gmt":"2022-01-23T18:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/338canada-who-can-best-challenge-doug-ford-in-june-polls-disagree\/"},"modified":"2022-01-23T21:58:44","modified_gmt":"2022-01-23T18:58:44","slug":"338canada-who-can-best-challenge-doug-ford-in-june-polls-disagree","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/338canada-who-can-best-challenge-doug-ford-in-june-polls-disagree\/","title":{"rendered":"#338Canada: Who can best challenge Doug Ford in June? Polls disagree."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;<strong>#338Canada: Who can best challenge Doug Ford in June? Polls disagree.<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                            Philippe J. Fournier: The PCs still have the edge in our latest projection, but a collection of diverging polls suggest public opinion is in flux\n                        <\/div>\n<div>\n                                                                        With the Ontario provincial election campaign expected to be launched this spring, the state of the race between the main parties remains unclear, especially since polls in the latter half of 2021 showed significant disagreement. Lo and behold, there were no fewer than five Ontario polls released last week and, although I often quip that more data means a better understanding of the landscape, last week\u2019s Ontario polls did little to clear the air. In fact, as you will see below, the picture could hardly be any blurrier.<\/p>\n<p>Let us take a closer look at the main numbers from each polling firm (see <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario\/polls.htm\">the complete list of Ontario polls here<\/a>):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px;\"><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/abacusdata.ca\/ontario-politics-pcs-ford-lead-january-2022-onpoli\/\">Abacus Data<\/a>\u2018s latest numbers show Doug Ford\u2019s Progressive Conservative Party leading its rivals with 37 per cent of voting intentions, a nine-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party which stands at 28 per cent. The race for second place is a close one with the Ontario NDP at 25 per cent.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px;\"><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ekospolitics.com\/index.php\/2022\/01\/ford-maintains-clear-but-modest-lead\/\">EKOS Research Associates<\/a>\u2018 newer Ontario numbers mirror those of Abacus, with the PC in the lead with 35 per cent. The NDP and Liberals are in a statistical tie for second place with 27 and 26 per cent, respectively.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px;\"><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ipolitics.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Ontario-iPoliticsCOVID-19January2022.pdf\">Mainstreet Research<\/a>\u2018s latest survey for iPolitics measures a closer race between the main parties: 31 per cent for the PC, 28 per cent for the Liberals, 27 per cent for the NDP.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px;\"><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/innovativeresearch.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/CTM2201-W1-Ontario-Politics-Report-RELEASE-.pdf\">Innovative Research<\/a> measures a dramatically different landscape: The Ontario Liberals (36 per cent) and PC (35 per cent) are in a tie for first place, while the NDP is a distant third with 22 per cent. It is worth noting however that all publicly released Innovative Ontario polls in 2021 had the Liberals either leading or in a statistical tie for first place.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px;\">Opposite to Innovative, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/angusreid.org\/provincial-politics-quebec-ontario-election\/\">the Angus Reid Institute<\/a> has the Ontario NDP in the lead with 36 per cent (a first in Ontario polling since 2019), with Doug Ford\u2019s PC as a close second with 33 per cent. As for the Liberals, Angus Reid measures their support at only 19 per cent (close to their disastrous result in the 2018 <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> election), far below what other firms have measured of late.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(As an aside: The Quebec media and <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a>sphere were set ablaze last week by a five-point disagreement between polls from <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/lactualite.com\/politique\/la-caq-goute-aux-joies-dune-opposition-divisee\/\">L\u00e9ger<\/a> and Mainstreet Research: While L\u00e9ger had Qu\u00e9bec solidaire at 14 per cent, Mainstreet measured QS support at 19 per cent, tied with the Quebec Liberals for second place. Mere days later Angus Reid split it down the middle with 16 per cent. I hardly can imagine the reaction a 17-point spread would have created in media and partisan circles.)<\/p>\n<p>What is there to make of such discrepancies in Ontario polling? Here is a comparative graph showing polls results and the adjusted 338Canada weighted average:<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/ontario\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2022-01-23-vote-on.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"25\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>[On the graph above, the coloured bars represent the popular vote projection 95% confidence intervals and the dots, the latest poll results (AD: Abacus Data; EK: EKOS; MS: Mainstreet Research; IR: Innovative Research; AR: Angus Reid Institute).]<\/p>\n<p>For the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario\/pc.htm\">Ontario PC party<\/a>, polls measure its support between 31 and 37 per cent province-wide, meaning current polling agrees that the PC stands below its 41 per cent result from 2018. While this six-point spread should be considered a modest polling disagreement, our electoral system invariably produces wildly different seat totals within this range of popular support. At 37 per cent (Abacus Data), the PC party would almost assuredly secure a second straight majority at Queen\u2019s Park, whereas with support of 35 per cent or below, the most likely outcome would be a PC plurality\u2014depending how evenly split the non-PC vote would be. This projection has the PC at an average of 35 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>The <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario\/lib.htm\">Ontario Liberals<\/a> stand at an average of 27 per cent, but, as mentioned above, there is a wild spread between where Innovative (36 per cent) and Angus Reid (19 per cent) estimate Liberal support. Naturally, this dramatically increases the uncertainty of the projection and, consequently, widens considerably the Liberal seat projection probably density. In fact, in the best-case scenario for the Ontario Liberal Party, it edges out Ford\u2019s PC in seat count; in the worst-case scenario, it does barely better than in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>The <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario\/ndp.htm\">Ontario NDP<\/a> also averages 27 per cent support in this projection. However, there once again is a major disagreement between numbers from Innovative (22 per cent) and Angus Reid (36 per cent). Angus Reid\u2019s is the only poll of late that shows Andrea Horwath\u2019s party above its 2018 result.<\/p>\n<p>As for the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario\/grn.htm\">Green Party of Ontario<\/a>, the latest polls show its support as stable between 4 and 6 per cent. Its current average stands at 5 per cent provincially.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the adjusted <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario\/\">338Canada seat projections<\/a>. The Ontario PC party leads with an average of 59 seats, just below the majority threshold of 63 seats. Of note: The PCs are the only party whose upper confidence interval stretches into majority territory. In fact, the PCs win the most seats in 91 per cent of all simulations:<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/ontario\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2022-01-23-seats-on.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"25\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Ontario Liberals and NDP are in a statistical tie with averages of 34 and 30 seats, respectively. Notice on the graph above how wide the Liberals\u2019 brackets are compared to the NDP\u2019s: this indicates the Liberal Party has a noticeably higher ceiling than the NDP, but also a much lower floor. In fact, by comparing the Liberal and PC seat probability densities, we see that the curves overlap:<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/ontario\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2022-01-23-towers1.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"25\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2026 which means the Liberal Party\u2019s seat total could rival the PCs\u2019 with a modest overperformance from the Liberals. However, should the Liberals slip into third place, their seat harvest could easily fall in the low 10s.<\/p>\n<p>As for the NDP, while it has more safe seats than the Liberals (bringing the party\u2019s floor upwards), it is projected as competitive in fewer ridings than the Liberals. In the projection\u2019s upper confidence interval, the NDP wins between 40 to 45 seats. Considering the NDP won 40 seats in the 2018 election, its potential for net gains remains limited according to current data.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/ontario\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2022-01-23-towers2.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"25\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Obviously, these seat projections are based on a weighted average of polls, so if either Innovative Research\u2019s or Angus Reid\u2019s numbers are closer to the reality on the field, the seat totals for each party would tilt towards the extremes. Taken alone, Angus Reid\u2019s numbers (NDP +3) would most likely produce a very close result in terms of seats between the PC and NDP, leaving the Ontario Liberals barely at the threshold of official party status. If we take Innovative Research\u2019s latest numbers (Liberals +1), the Liberals could even hope to win a plurality, thus unseating Doug Ford and relegating the NDP to a third party holding the balance of power.<\/p>\n<p>Opinion polling tends to produce greater swings between surveys when public opinion is in flux, especially many months before election day. As the campaign <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>roaches and <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> cycle tend to focus more on policy and state of the race, we expect numbers to tighten up and converge. We will follow Ontario polling closely in the coming months.<\/p>\n<p>* * *<\/p>\n<p>Details of this projection are available on the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario\/\">338Canada Ontario page<\/a>. To find your home district, use this list <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/ontario\/districts.htm\">of all 124 provincial districts<\/a>, or use the regional links below:<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<br \/>\n<span class=\"ctx-article-root\"><!-- --><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async defer crossorigin=\"anonymous\" src=\"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/sdk.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/338canada-who-can-best-challenge-doug-ford-in-june-polls-disagree\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#338Canada: Who can best challenge Doug Ford in June? Polls disagree.&#8221; Philippe J. Fournier: The PCs still have the edge in our latest projection, but a collection of diverging polls suggest public opinion is in flux With the Ontario provincial election campaign expected to be launched this spring, the state of the race between the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":398176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/CP149102869-766x431.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[68722,69043,67806,67817,72538,67863],"class_list":["post-398175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-338canada","tag-doug-ford","tag-editors-picks","tag-liberals","tag-ndp","tag-ontario"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/398175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=398175"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/398175\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/398176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=398175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=398175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=398175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}