{"id":400021,"date":"2022-01-27T20:14:18","date_gmt":"2022-01-27T17:14:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/derivatives-data-suggests-that-bitcoins-39k-bounce-was-a-mere-blip\/"},"modified":"2022-01-27T20:14:18","modified_gmt":"2022-01-27T17:14:18","slug":"derivatives-data-suggests-that-bitcoins-39k-bounce-was-a-mere-blip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/derivatives-data-suggests-that-bitcoins-39k-bounce-was-a-mere-blip\/","title":{"rendered":"# Derivatives data suggests that Bitcoin\u2019s $39K bounce was a mere blip"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a32b4479a99d\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a32b4479a99d\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/derivatives-data-suggests-that-bitcoins-39k-bounce-was-a-mere-blip\/#Bitcoin_price_recovered_but_bulls_are_still_in_troubled_waters\" >Bitcoin price recovered, but bulls are still in troubled waters<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/derivatives-data-suggests-that-bitcoins-39k-bounce-was-a-mere-blip\/#Bears_bag_a_315_million_profit_even_with_Bitcoin_near_39000\" >Bears bag a $315 million profit even with Bitcoin near $39,000<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/derivatives-data-suggests-that-bitcoins-39k-bounce-was-a-mere-blip\/#40000_is_still_a_stretch\" >$40,000 is still a stretch<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Derivatives data suggests that Bitcoin\u2019s $39K bounce was a mere blip <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are probably quite dis<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ointed with how the start of 2022 has shaped up, especially since the cryptocurrency plunged over 20% in the first 25 days of the year. Even more shocking is the fact that the supposed $32,930 bottom on Jan. 21 was the lowest level BTC price had seen in 6 months, while equity markets as measured by the S&amp;P500 reached an all-time high on Jan. 4.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The sell-off in risk markets accelerated after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/01\/25\/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html\">plan to raise interest rates<\/a> in the coming months, a measure intended to hold back the escalating inflation. For example, Invesco China <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Technology<\/a> ETF (CQQQ) traded below $58 on Jan. 22, which was a 20% drop from its peak on Nov. 12.<\/p>\n<p>Regulatory uncertainties continue to weigh on the sector as United States Congressman Patrick McHenry called the &#8220;inconsistent treatment and jurisdictional uncertainty&#8221; on crypto as a problem. McHenry essentially suggested that Congress should take crypto regulation away from executive agencies and courts.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_price_recovered_but_bulls_are_still_in_troubled_waters\"><\/span>Bitcoin price recovered, but bulls are still in troubled waters<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin bulls have little to celebrate after the 12% partial recovery to $38,100 on Jan. 26. First, BTC price is down 35% over the past two months, and more importantly, if Bitcoin trades below $38,000 by the Jan. 28 monthly options expiry bears are set to profit by $350 million.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-01\/302aa844-46f2-4e90-be6e-9186204dde2a.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Jan. 28. Source: Coinglass<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>At first sight, the $1.52 billion call (buy) options overshadow the $760 million in put options, but the 1.96 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the recent price drop will likely wipe out most of the bullish bets.<\/p>\n<p>For example, if Bitcoin&#8217;s price remains below $38,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Jan. 28, only $72 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry. There is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $38,000 if BTC is trading below that price.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bears_bag_a_315_million_profit_even_with_Bitcoin_near_39000\"><\/span>Bears bag a $315 million profit even with Bitcoin near $39,000<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Here are the three most likely scenarios for the $2.3 billion options expiry on Jan. 14. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In practice, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Between $35,000 and $37,000:<\/strong> 660 calls vs. 13,550 puts. The net result is $450 million favoring the put (bear) options.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Between $37,000 and $39,000<\/strong>: 1,300 calls vs. 13,100 puts. The net result is $315 million favoring the put (bear) options.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Between $39,000 and $41,000:<\/strong> 3,710 calls vs. 8,170 puts. The net result favors bears by $180 million.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This crude estimate considers call options being used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.<\/p>\n<p>For instance, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining a negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. But unfortunately, there&#8217;s no easy way to estimate this effect.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"40000_is_still_a_stretch\"><\/span>$40,000 is still a stretch<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>It might seem relatively easy to move Bitcoin price up by 3% and bring the expiry price above $39,000 on Friday&#8217;s expiry. However, considering the negative <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> flow regarding regulation and monetary policy tightening, bulls will likely have a hard time pulling it off.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, if the current short-term negative sentiment prevails, bears could easily pressure the price down 3% from the current $38,100 down to $36,900 and secure a $450 million profit. <\/p>\n<p>In short, bears completely dominate Jan. 28 monthly options expiry, giving little hope for a $40,000 price recovery in the short-term.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>author<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/derivatives-data-suggests-that-bitcoin-s-39k-bounce-was-a-mere-blip\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Derivatives data suggests that Bitcoin\u2019s $39K bounce was a mere blip &#8221; Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are probably quite disappointed with how the start of 2022 has shaped up, especially since the cryptocurrency plunged over 20% in the first 25 days of the year. Even more shocking is the fact that the supposed $32,930 bottom&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":400022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDEvMTQwZGU2MTItOGY0Zi00MzJiLTlmYWMtODVhMDcwZTg0YTIyLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,81209,74937,74858,74863,74860,75012,74939,73785],"class_list":["post-400021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-regulation","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-derivatives","tag-market-analysis","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/400021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=400021"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/400021\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/400022"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=400021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=400021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=400021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}