{"id":402386,"date":"2022-02-02T00:45:44","date_gmt":"2022-02-01T21:45:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/bitcoin-price-closes-in-on-40k-but-pro-traders-are-still-skeptical\/"},"modified":"2022-02-02T00:45:44","modified_gmt":"2022-02-01T21:45:44","slug":"bitcoin-price-closes-in-on-40k-but-pro-traders-are-still-skeptical","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-closes-in-on-40k-but-pro-traders-are-still-skeptical\/","title":{"rendered":"# Bitcoin price closes in on $40K, but pro traders are still skeptical"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3c16e2100aa\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3c16e2100aa\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-closes-in-on-40k-but-pro-traders-are-still-skeptical\/#Liquidations_are_behind_us_but_so_is_the_route_to_69000\" >Liquidations are behind us, but so is the route to $69,000<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-closes-in-on-40k-but-pro-traders-are-still-skeptical\/#Bitcoin_futures_markets_are_neutral_but_options_traders_are_skeptical\" >Bitcoin futures markets are neutral, but options traders are skeptical<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong># Bitcoin price closes in on $40K, but pro traders are still skeptical  <\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>The Bitcoin (BTC) daily price chart seems to be making a steady recovery pattern, but some concerning indicators are coming from derivatives markets. At the moment, the futures and options markets are showing a lack of confidence from Bitcoin pro traders, but there&#8217;s a positive spin to the data.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-02\/ab2b118c-4379-47ab-b7db-2a936200abe2.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The road to $40,000 seems uncomfortably predictable, and cryptocurrency traders usually call it &#8220;manipulation&#8221; when such price movements h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">If you <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#bitcoin<\/a> around that region, just be careful.<\/p>\n<p>A picture speaks a thousands words and I think mine says it all.<\/p>\n<p>Make it or break it time around the corner for <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/btc?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#btc<\/a>. This weekend is weekly close &amp; monthly close as well so expect volatility and manipulation.<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Crypto<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kPhDKAjupQ\">pic.twitter.com\/kPhDKAjupQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 @Maze (Will never DM 1st or Follow) (@_CryptoMaze_) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_CryptoMaze_\/status\/1486891629340676099?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 28, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Regardless of the rationale behind Bitcoin&#8217;s price recovery, investors should analyze derivatives markets to understand how whales, market makers and arbitrage desks are positioned. <\/p>\n<p>While retail traders&#8217; favorite instrument is the perpetual contract (inverse swaps), pro traders often opt for fixed-calendar futures and options. Although they are more complicated to trade, these derivatives offer more complex strategies.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Liquidations_are_behind_us_but_so_is_the_route_to_69000\"><\/span>Liquidations are behind us, but so is the route to $69,000<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Data shows that there hasn&#8217;t been a relevant futures contract liquidation since Jan. 23. When leverage long (buyers) have their positions terminated, it accelerates the price correction, because derivatives exchanges need to sell those futures at market prices. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-02\/461698e1-708b-41b2-85b4-dc028472d941.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Total crypto futures liquidations, USD. Source: Coinglass<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Notice how the last \u201cbig\u201d forced position termination on longs was $290 million on Jan. 23. This partially explains why Bitcoin\u2019s recovery was relatively tranquil over the past week. Still, the market is nowhere near being out of the water, considering that BTC is currently trading 44% below the $69,000 all-time high.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-02\/92108ba1-9299-4625-b2a6-e6ced5cd9e18.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The Bitcoin futures annualized premium should run between 5% to 12% to compensate traders for &#8220;locking in&#8221; the money for two to three months until the contract expiry. Levels below 5% are extremely bearish, while the numbers above 12% indicate bullishness. <\/p>\n<p>The above chart shows that this metric dipped below 5% on Jan. 21 and hasn&#8217;t yet shown signs of confidence from pro traders. <\/p>\n<p>So the big question is: Is the glass half full? For example, if Bitcoin breaks the $42,000 resistance, some traders will likely be caught off guard, so there&#8217;s additional buying activity because no one wants to be left behind. <\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_futures_markets_are_neutral_but_options_traders_are_skeptical\"><\/span>Bitcoin futures markets are neutral, but options traders are skeptical<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Currently, it\u2019s a bit difficult to discern a direction in the market, but the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection. <\/p>\n<p>If traders fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 10%. On the other hand, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>ized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-02\/d6f6d670-a32a-4562-8bb4-9b0f046c61e2.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As displayed above, we&#8217;ve been near 10% for almost a week despite the 18% BTC price recovery since the $33,000 bottom. The options skew data shows that pro traders are still pricing higher odds for a market crash. <\/p>\n<p>Despite the not-so-positive indicator from Bitcoin options, these arbitrage desks and market makers will be forced to reverse bearish positions once the price breaks $42,000. However, considering that the futures premium did not show signs of desperation even as the market crashed 52% from the all-time high, the data provides a constructive view.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>author<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-closes-in-on-40k-but-pro-traders-are-still-skeptical\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Bitcoin price closes in on $40K, but pro traders are still skeptical &#8221; The Bitcoin (BTC) daily price chart seems to be making a steady recovery pattern, but some concerning indicators are coming from derivatives markets. At the moment, the futures and options markets are showing a lack of confidence from Bitcoin pro traders,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":402387,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDIvNDkzMDAyYWMtNzA5YS00YWJjLWI3YzktODY2NzIxYjk4YTU2LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74972,81209,74937,74863,74860,75012,74939,3123,73785],"class_list":["post-402386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-futures","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-derivatives","tag-market-analysis","tag-leverage","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=402386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402386\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/402387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=402386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=402386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=402386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}