{"id":413566,"date":"2022-03-08T23:16:49","date_gmt":"2022-03-08T20:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/ethereum-traders-reduce-their-bullish-bets-as-eth-struggles-reclaim-3k\/"},"modified":"2022-03-08T23:16:49","modified_gmt":"2022-03-08T20:16:49","slug":"ethereum-traders-reduce-their-bullish-bets-as-eth-struggles-reclaim-3k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-traders-reduce-their-bullish-bets-as-eth-struggles-reclaim-3k\/","title":{"rendered":"# Ethereum traders reduce their bullish bets as ETH struggles reclaim $3K"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3db81743c48\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3db81743c48\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-traders-reduce-their-bullish-bets-as-eth-struggles-reclaim-3k\/#%E2%80%9D_Ethereum_traders_reduce_their_bullish_bets_as_ETH_struggles_reclaim_3K_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Ethereum traders reduce their bullish bets as ETH struggles reclaim $3K &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-traders-reduce-their-bullish-bets-as-eth-struggles-reclaim-3k\/#The_futures_premium_has_flatlined\" >The futures premium has flatlined<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-traders-reduce-their-bullish-bets-as-eth-struggles-reclaim-3k\/#Long-to-short_data_confirms_the_lack_of_excitement\" >Long-to-short data confirms the lack of excitement<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-traders-reduce-their-bullish-bets-as-eth-struggles-reclaim-3k\/#All_the_data_points_to_further_downside\" >All the data points to further downside<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Ethereum_traders_reduce_their_bullish_bets_as_ETH_struggles_reclaim_3K_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Ethereum traders reduce their bullish bets as ETH struggles reclaim $3K &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-128018ef>Ether (ETH) is still in troubled waters after failing to break a 5-week long descending channel top for the third time in a row. The March 2 test of the $3,000 resistance was followed by a 17.5% correction in 5 days, which signals that buyers are somewhat reluctant to defend the price.<\/p>\n<p>To date, Ether suffers from high network transaction fees, even though it dropped from $19 in mid-February to the current $13 per transaction. While this is less than peaks seen previously, $13 per transaction is still incompatible with most <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a>s, NFT and even DeFi transactions.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-03\/6871ddf7-f57e-4d8c-92fa-07ab965f2801.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Ether\/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Even more worrisome than Ether&#8217;s performance has been the total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum declining by 55% on March 8. Data shows the percentage of assets locked in its smart contracts reached an all-time low versus competitors.<\/p>\n<p>This indicator could partially explain why Ether has been in a down-trend since early February. But, more importantly, one needs to analyze how professional traders are positioning themselves and there&#8217;s no better gauge than derivatives markets.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_futures_premium_has_flatlined\"><\/span>The futures premium has flatlined<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>To understand whether the current bearish trend reflects top traders&#8217; sentiment, one should analyze Ether\u2019s futures contracts premium, which is also known as &#8220;basis.&#8221; Unlike a perpetual contract, these fixed-calendar futures do not have a funding rate, so their price will differ vastly from regular spot exchanges.<\/p>\n<p>By measuring the expense gap between futures and the regular spot market, a trader can gauge the level of bullishness in the market. Conversely, bearish sentiment tends to cause the three-month futures contract to trade at a 5% or lower annualized premium (basis).<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, a neutral market should present a 5% to 15% basis, reflecting market participants&#8217; unwillingness to lock in Ether for cheap until the trade settles.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-03\/52ed0199-6bbf-4856-9525-0d675514a2b4.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Ether 3-month futures premium. Source: laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The above chart shows that Ether\u2018s futures premium has bottomed on Feb. 28 near 1.5%, a level typically associated with moderate pessimism. Despite the slight improvement to the current 3% basis, futures market participants are reluctant to open leverage long (buy) positions.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Long-to-short_data_confirms_the_lack_of_excitement\"><\/span>Long-to-short data confirms the lack of excitement<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The top traders&#8217; long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have impacted the longer-term futures instruments. By analyzing these top clients&#8217; positions on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.<\/p>\n<p>There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-03\/43547914-27ed-44cb-b9ec-2de189c4c8d7.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Exchanges&#8217; top traders Ether long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Curiously, when Ether&#8217;s futures premium bottomed at 1.5% on Feb. 28, ETH&#8217;s price was remarkably close to the current $2,600. Thus, it makes sense to compare the top traders&#8217; long-to-short ratio over this period.<\/p>\n<p>Binance shows the same level of top traders Ether positions at 0.92 on Feb. 8 and March 8. However, these whales and market markers at Huobi and OKX effectively reduced their longs. For instance, the long-to-short ratio at Huobi declined from 1.07 to the current 1.00. Furthermore, OKX traders&#8217; current 1.47 ratio is smaller than 1.58 from eight days ago.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"All_the_data_points_to_further_downside\"><\/span>All the data points to further downside<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>From the perspective of the metrics discussed above, there is hardly any sense that Ether price will flip bullish in the short-term. The data suggests that pro traders are unwilling to add long positions, as expressed by the basis rate and long-to-short ratio.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the TVL data does not back a strong usage indicator of Ethereum smart contracts. Losing ground to competitors, while constantly delaying the migration to a Proof-of-Stake solution is likely pulling investors\u2019 attention away and making long investors feel uncomfortable.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/noshitcoins\"><em>author<\/em><\/a><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/ethereum-traders-reduce-their-bullish-bets-as-eth-struggles-reclaim-3k\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8221; Ethereum traders reduce their bullish bets as ETH struggles reclaim $3K &#8220; Ether (ETH) is still in troubled waters after failing to break a 5-week long descending channel top for the third time in a row. The March 2 test of the $3,000 resistance was followed by a 17.5% correction in 5 days, which&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":413567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDMvYWI3MDVkYzUtOWJiNi00NTZjLWIwZmMtODg2M2E1ZWI2MDkzLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[75014,74863,75012,82402,74891,75846,74939,75592,75434,73785],"class_list":["post-413566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-binance","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-derivatives","tag-ether-price","tag-ethereum","tag-futures","tag-market-analysis","tag-okex","tag-smart-contracts","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=413566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413566\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/413567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=413566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=413566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=413566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}