{"id":414576,"date":"2022-03-10T18:57:08","date_gmt":"2022-03-10T15:57:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/machine-learning-to-predict-if-youll-leave-your-partner\/"},"modified":"2022-03-10T18:57:08","modified_gmt":"2022-03-10T15:57:08","slug":"machine-learning-to-predict-if-youll-leave-your-partner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/machine-learning-to-predict-if-youll-leave-your-partner\/","title":{"rendered":"#Machine learning to predict if you&#8217;ll leave your partner"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2f4b70c72b0\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2f4b70c72b0\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/machine-learning-to-predict-if-youll-leave-your-partner\/#%E2%80%9CMachine_learning_to_predict_if_youll_leave_your_partner%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Machine learning to predict if you&#8217;ll leave your partner&#8221;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CMachine_learning_to_predict_if_youll_leave_your_partner%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Machine learning to predict if you&#8217;ll leave your partner&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div>\n<div class=\"article-gallery lightGallery\">\n<div data-thumb=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/tmb\/2022\/machine-learning-to-pr.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/hires\/2022\/machine-learning-to-pr.jpg\" data-sub-html=\"Letizia Mencarini, Bocconi University, Milan, and co-authors used a Machine Learning technique to predict couple dissolution in a study published in Demography. Credit: Weiwei Chen\">\n<figure class=\"article-img\">\n            <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/800a\/2022\/machine-learning-to-pr.jpg\" alt=\"Machine learning to predict if you'll leave your partner\" title=\"Letizia Mencarini, Bocconi University, Milan, and co-authors used a Machine Learning technique to predict couple dissolution in a study published in Demography. Credit: Weiwei Chen\" width=\"800\" height=\"530\"\/><figcaption class=\"text-darken text-low-up text-truncate-js text-truncate mt-3\">\n                Letizia Mencarini, Bocconi University, Milan, and co-authors used a Machine Learning technique to predict couple dissolution in a study published in Demography. Credit: Weiwei Chen<br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The life satisfaction of both partners and the woman&#8217;s percentage of housework turned out to be the most important predictors of union dissolution, when scholars affiliated to\u00a0Bocconi&#8217;s Dondena Centre for Research on <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Social<\/a> Dynamics and Public Policy\u00a0used a machine learning (ML) technique to analyze data on 2,038 married or cohabiting couples who participated in the\u00a0German Socio-Economic Panel Survey.\u00a0The couples were observed, on average, for 12 years, leading to a total of 18,613 observations. During the observation period, 914 couples (45%) split up.<\/p>\n<p>                                                                                In their article, newly published online on\u00a0<i>Demography<\/i>,\u00a0Bruno Arpino\u00a0(University of Florence),\u00a0Marco Le Moglie\u00a0(Catholic University, Milan) and\u00a0Letizia Mencarini\u00a0(Bocconi), used a ML technique called Random Survival Forests (RSF) to overcome the difficulty to manage a large number of independent variables in conventional models.\u00a0&#8220;A clear-cut example of the potential difficulties of considering all variables and their possible interactions concerns the &#8216;big five&#8217; personality traits,&#8221; Professor Mencarini said. &#8220;To account for both partners&#8217; traits (10 variables) and all their two-way interactions (25 variables), one would need to include 35 independent variables, which would be very problematic in a regression model.&#8221; ML tools are, on the contrary, capable of detecting complex patterns in relatively small datasets.\u00a0Another advantage of ML is supposed to be its superior predictive power compared to conventional models, more attuned to explaining how certain mechanisms work than to predicting the future behavior of the variables. When the authors divided their sample in two parts and used the results of the first half to predict the outcomes of the second half, they found that the predictive accuracy of RSF was considerably superior to that of conventional models. Nonetheless, the predictive accuracy of RSF was limited despite the use, as input variables, of all the most important predictors of union dissolution identified in the literature.<\/p>\n<p>Among the variables with the greatest predictive ability, the authors found the life satisfaction of both partners, woman&#8217;s percentage of housework, marital status (i.e., married vs. cohabiting), woman&#8217;s working hours, woman&#8217;s level of openness, and man&#8217;s level of extraversion.\u00a0The analysis also found that many variables interact in complex ways. For instance, when man&#8217;s life satisfaction was high, higher woman&#8217;s life satisfaction constantly increased the union&#8217;s chances of surviving. But when man&#8217;s life satisfaction was low, the association between woman&#8217;s life satisfaction and union survival was negative after a given threshold.\u00a0The authors, though, did not detect any interaction effect when considering personal traits: a woman&#8217;s openness and a man&#8217;s extraversion make union dissolution more likely, irrespective of their partner&#8217;s personality.\u00a0\n                                                                                                                        <\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<div class=\"article-main__explore my-4 d-print-none\">\n<p>                                            Machine learning predicts marital discord\n                                        <\/p><\/div>\n<hr class=\"mb-4\"\/>\n<div class=\"article-main__more p-4\">\n                                                                                                <strong>More information:<\/strong><br \/>\n                                                Bruno Arpino et al, What Tears Couples Apart: A Machine Learning Analysis of Union Dissolution in Germany, <i>Demography<\/i> (2021).  <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-doi=\"1\" href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1215\/00703370-9648346\">DOI: 10.1215\/00703370-9648346<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p>                                                Provided by<br \/>\n                                                                                                    Bocconi University<\/p>\n<p>                                        <!-- print only --><\/p>\n<div class=\"d-none d-print-block\">\n<p>                                                 <strong>Citation<\/strong>:<br \/>\n                                                 Machine learning to predict if you&#8217;ll leave your partner (2022, March 10)<br \/>\n                                                 retrieved 10 March 2022<br \/>\n                                                 from https:\/\/techxplore.com\/<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>\/2022-03-machine-youll-partner.html<\/p>\n<p>                                            This document is subject to copyright. 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Credit: Weiwei Chen The life satisfaction of both partners and the woman&#8217;s percentage of housework turned out to be the most important predictors of&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":414577,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/hires\/2022\/machine-learning-to-pr.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-414576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sciencee"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=414576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414576\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/414577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=414576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=414576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=414576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}