{"id":415527,"date":"2022-03-11T21:12:56","date_gmt":"2022-03-11T18:12:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/us-faces-35-risk-of-recession-goldman-sachs\/"},"modified":"2022-03-11T21:12:56","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T18:12:56","slug":"us-faces-35-risk-of-recession-goldman-sachs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-faces-35-risk-of-recession-goldman-sachs\/","title":{"rendered":"#US faces 35% risk of recession: Goldman Sachs"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3bb9cc25133\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3bb9cc25133\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-faces-35-risk-of-recession-goldman-sachs\/#%E2%80%9CUS_faces_35_risk_of_recession_Goldman_Sachs%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;US faces 35% risk of recession: Goldman Sachs&#8221;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CUS_faces_35_risk_of_recession_Goldman_Sachs%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;US faces 35% risk of recession: Goldman Sachs&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>The US economy is at greater risk of falling into a recession over the next year due to higher oil prices and the specter of a prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to experts at investment banking giant Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n<p>The analysts at the bank peg a recession risk in the US at 35% \u2014 up from a 10% risk just a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile our baseline forecast assumes that further\u00a0service sector reopening and spending from excess savings will keep real GDP growth positive in the coming quarters, uncertainty around the outlook is higher than normal,\u201d Goldman analysts wrote in their report.<\/p>\n<p>The analysts predicted that unemployment would remain relatively low at 3.5% and that the economy would continue to see \u201chealthy job gains in 2022 despite fairly weak GDP growth due to strong labor demand.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Goldman analysts downgraded their forecast for GDP growth. Instead of a 1% growth in GDP during the first quarter of fiscal year 2022, experts now anticipate 0.5% growth. Earlier estimates predicted 2.5% growth in the second and third quarters, though now that has been downgraded to 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively. <\/p>\n<p>One small sign of optimism is predictions for the fourth quarter. Previous estimates expected 2% growth in GDP, though the revised outlook calls for 2.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, however, GDP growth this fiscal year is expected to reach 1.75% \u2014 down from the previous estimate of 2%.<\/p>\n<p>The US economy will be affected by prolonged conflict in Ukraine, particularly as it relates to higher commodity prices.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/us-pipeline-unemployment-43.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"Oil prices, which were on the rise before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have skyrocketed in recent weeks.\" class=\"wp-image-21496719\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/us-pipeline-unemployment-43.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/us-pipeline-unemployment-43.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/us-pipeline-unemployment-43.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>Oil prices, which were on the rise before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have skyrocketed in recent weeks.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">picture alliance<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Crude oil and agriculture will be more expensive. Goldman analysts predict that a barrel of Brent crude will reach $135 per barrel within six months before falling to $115 a barrel in the early part of 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts believe the increasing cost of energy will mean less disposable income for Americans who would otherwise pump that money into the economy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRising commodity prices will likely result in a drag on consumer spending, as households \u2014 and lower-income households in particular \u2014 are forced to spend a larger share of income on food and gas,\u201d Goldman analysts said in their report.<\/p>\n<p>Europe is at higher risk of recession, according to Goldman analysts. The investment bank downgraded the continent\u2019s GDP growth forecast from 3.9% to 2.5%. The European Union, unlike the United States, is heavily reliant on energy exports from Russia.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/us-pipeline-unemployment-41.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"Americans will most likely continue paying higher prices for commodities well into next year.\" class=\"wp-image-21496718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/us-pipeline-unemployment-41.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/us-pipeline-unemployment-41.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/us-pipeline-unemployment-41.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>Americans will most likely continue paying higher prices for commodities well into next year.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">SOPA Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The EU and the US have imposed sanctions on wide swaths of the Russian banking and finance sector, though they have avoided harsh penalties against the country\u2019s energy industry.<\/p>\n<p>The report comes on the heels of new Labor Department data showing that inflation rose at its fastest pace in four decades last month.<\/p>\n<p>The Consumer Price Index, a closely tracked inflation gauge that details the costs of goods and services,\u00a0rose 7.9% in the 12-month period that ended in February\u00a0\u2014 the fastest pace of inflation since 1982.<\/p>\n<p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Thursday that Americans should gird for at least another year of \u201cvery uncomfortably high\u201d levels of inflation.\n                        <\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/03\/11\/us-faces-35-risk-of-recession-goldman-sachs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;US faces 35% risk of recession: Goldman Sachs&#8221; The US economy is at greater risk of falling into a recession over the next year due to higher oil prices and the specter of a prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to experts at investment banking giant Goldman Sachs. The analysts at the bank peg a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":415528,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/ukraine-61.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1024","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[126635,5069,70752,70790,70551,74489,91261,4975,70868,126128],"class_list":["post-415527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-3-11-22","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-inflation","tag-oil-prices","tag-recession","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-ukraine-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/415527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=415527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/415527\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/415528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=415527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=415527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=415527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}