{"id":419098,"date":"2022-03-21T00:48:34","date_gmt":"2022-03-20T21:48:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/338canada-a-tale-of-two-premiers\/"},"modified":"2022-03-21T00:48:34","modified_gmt":"2022-03-20T21:48:34","slug":"338canada-a-tale-of-two-premiers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/338canada-a-tale-of-two-premiers\/","title":{"rendered":"#338Canada: A tale of two premiers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a26b6ba11919\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a26b6ba11919\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/338canada-a-tale-of-two-premiers\/#%E2%80%9C338Canada_A_tale_of_two_premiers%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;338Canada: A tale of two premiers&#8221;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9C338Canada_A_tale_of_two_premiers%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;338Canada: A tale of two premiers&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div>\n                            Philippe J. Fournier: A few years ago, Francois Legault and Jason Kenney were making history. Today, only one of them is sure to survive their next election.\n                        <\/div>\n<div>\n                                                                        When Jason Kenney lead his brand new United Conservative Party to a decisive majority victory in April 2019, some observers (yours truly included) wondered whether Alberta had just entered a new era of political dynasty. It wasn\u2019t a far-fetched scenario: Even by earning more votes in absolute numbers in 2019 than in 2015, Rachel Notley\u2019s NDP went for a majority at the Alberta legislature to the opposition benches with only 24 seats (almost entirely from urban Alberta). With the benefit of hindsight, it now <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears obvious that the NDP simply did not stand a chance of winning the 2019 election against a single, united conservative opponent.<\/p>\n<p>Mere months later, Andrew Scheer\u2019s CPC won a stunning 69 per cent of the vote in Alberta in the 2019 federal election. It therefore appeared like an obvious understatement to say that Alberta conservatives had fully regained control of the political landscape of the province, and perhaps this new right-of-centre creature lead by Jason Kenney could potentially dominate the province for years to come.<\/p>\n<p>In Quebec, Fran\u00e7ois Legault\u2019s Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec (CAQ) had, just six months prior, broken a half-century cycle in Quebec politics by winning a majority at the National Assembly, inflicting both the Quebec Liberals and Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois the worst defeats in their history. Legault, himself a former prominent PQ MNA, lead his party to victory by taking the middle road between two foes still deeply committed to fighting \u201cLa question nationale\u201d, which, polls have indicted, many Quebecers feel is yesterday\u2019s battle.<\/p>\n<p>Legault\u2019s victory in 2018 culminated a decade of high political volatility in Quebec. Three straight provincial elections featuring the same three parties had resulted in three different winners (PQ in 2012, Liberals in 2014, and CAQ in 2018). On the federal front, Quebec voters had overwhelmingly supported Gilles Duceppe\u2019s Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois in the 2008 federal election, only to turn massively towards Jack Layton\u2019s NDP in 2011, and then elected 40 MPs from Justin Trudeau\u2019s Liberals in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Yet, with only six months before Quebec voters go to the polls (the Quebec <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> election is scheduled for Oct. 3, 2022), Legault\u2019s position is, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/quebec\/polls.htm\">according to recent polling<\/a>, more comfortable than any sitting Quebec premier since Robert Bourassa in 1989.<\/p>\n<p>To wit: The latest <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/quebec\/\">338Canada projection in Quebec<\/a> gives the CAQ the edge in 97 of the province\u2019s 125 electoral districts, a total well above the 63-seat threshold for a majority at the National Assembly. Unless the CAQ performs a nosedive of historic proportion in the coming months, Legault should handily win a second straight majority this fall.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/quebec\/\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2022-03-19-seats-qc.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"10\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The CAQ domination is such that most storylines about the Quebec election revolve around which party shall occupy the opposition benches, and which could even be virtually wiped off the Quebec map. The Quebec Liberals still rely on many safe Montreal seats where most non-francophone voters live and have historically been reliable Liberal supporters, but even this support may be dwindling. The latest L\u00e9ger poll has the Liberals in fifth place among francophone voters, and measures a softening of non-francophone support for the Liberals.<\/p>\n<p>The same L\u00e9ger poll had Quebec Liberal leader Dominique Anglade as the favourite candidate for premier by 9 per cent of respondents\u2014including a measly 4 per cent among francophone voters. Whatever Anglade is selling, most Quebecers aren\u2019t buying, even several traditionally reliable Liberal voters. This only adds to Legault\u2019s apparent aura of invincibility.<\/p>\n<p>The contrast with Jason Kenney and the UCP could hardly be starker. Not only has the Alberta premier accumulated a long string of poor approval numbers since the pandemic reached our shores in the spring of 2020, the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/alberta\/polls.htm\">UCP has trailed the NDP in voting intentions<\/a> in virtually all publicly released polls since December 2020 (a private poll from Janet Brown Opinion Research <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/planetjanetyyc\/status\/1505225081147969536\">leaked by the UCP<\/a> last week showed a modest rebound for the UCP). Moreover, the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/angusreid.org\/premiers-performance-march\/\">latest round of premier approvals by the Angus Reid Institute<\/a> has Kenney at 30 per cent approval among Alberta voters, second last of the list of Premiers in Canada (only Manitoba\u2019s new Premier Heather Stefanson fared worse than Kenney).<\/p>\n<p>Using the available data, the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/alberta\/\">338Canada Alberta model<\/a> measures the NDP and UCP in a dead heat in the seat projection: 44 seats for the NDP and 43 for the UCP, both numbers bearing wide confidence intervals. If an election was held this week, the projection would have been the very definition of a toss up between the main parties:<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338Canada.com\/alberta\/\"><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" data-sizes=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/qc125.com\/proj\/2022-03-18-seats-ab.png\" width=\"680\" vspace=\"10\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Former Wildrose leader Brian Jean\u2019s comfortable victory in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by-election last week only muddies the water further for Kenney. While Jean\u2019s by-election win was not a surprise, his clearly stated objective of unseating Kenney at the UCP convention in Red Deer next months adds to the unfolding drama. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/opinion\/article-jason-kenney-braces-for-potentially-awkward-leadership-review-in-red\/\">Party organizers expect more than 10,000 UCP members<\/a> to show up and vote on Kenney\u2019s leadership, so not only do we wonder whether Kenney could beat Notley in a general election rematch, but it looks far from certain whether Kenney will manage to dodge this friendly fire and get to lead his party.<\/p>\n<p>Contrast this with the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/338canada.com\/quebec\/1069e.htm\">Marie-Victorin by-election<\/a> taking place in Quebec on April 11, where neophyte CAQ candidate Shirley Dorismond, a former nurse and union leader, has had to backtrack on several comments critical of Legault\u2019s CAQ that she made before running for the CAQ. Dorismond had been especially outspoken on systemic racism, which the CAQ does not recognize exists in Quebec. As union leader, she butted heads with the CAQ government on union negotiation on several occasions. Despite all this, Dorismond was all smiles when she was introduced by Legault last month and promised \u201cto be part of the solution.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>We are witnessing a fascinating tale of two Premiers: While Legault was elected in a period of political chaos and tumult in Quebec, he has so far succeeded in calming the storm, and even convinced former foes to kiss his ring. Meanwhile, Kenney\u2019s UCP victory in 2019 had the air of a return to conservative hegemony in Alberta, but is now forced to welcome a new MLA in his caucus who won his seat largely by publicly saying he will work to boot the premier out of office.<\/p>\n<div class=\"under-article-widget-nl\">\n<p class=\"under-article-widget-title\">Looking for more?<\/p>\n<p class=\"under-article-widget-description\">Get the best of <em>Maclean&#8217;s<\/em> sent straight to your inbox. Sign up for daily stories and analysis.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><script async defer crossorigin=\"anonymous\" src=\"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/sdk.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/ottawa\/338canada-a-tale-of-two-premiers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;338Canada: A tale of two premiers&#8221; Philippe J. Fournier: A few years ago, Francois Legault and Jason Kenney were making history. Today, only one of them is sure to survive their next election. When Jason Kenney lead his brand new United Conservative Party to a decisive majority victory in April 2019, some observers (yours truly&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":419099,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/CP119494021-766x431.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[68722,67806,71249,74978],"class_list":["post-419098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-338canada","tag-editors-picks","tag-francois-legault","tag-jason-kenney"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=419098"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419098\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/419099"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=419098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=419098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=419098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}