{"id":424305,"date":"2022-03-31T04:49:28","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T01:49:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/dont-bet-on-the-end-of-vladimir-putin\/"},"modified":"2022-03-31T04:49:28","modified_gmt":"2022-03-31T01:49:28","slug":"dont-bet-on-the-end-of-vladimir-putin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/dont-bet-on-the-end-of-vladimir-putin\/","title":{"rendered":"#Don\u2019t bet on the end of Vladimir Putin"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a409aeba554f\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a409aeba554f\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/dont-bet-on-the-end-of-vladimir-putin\/#%E2%80%9CDont_bet_on_the_end_of_Vladimir_Putin%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Don\u2019t bet on the end of Vladimir Putin&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/dont-bet-on-the-end-of-vladimir-putin\/#Vlad_anger_will_linger\" >Vlad anger will linger<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/dont-bet-on-the-end-of-vladimir-putin\/#A_broad_purge\" >A broad purge<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CDont_bet_on_the_end_of_Vladimir_Putin%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Don\u2019t bet on the end of Vladimir Putin&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Almost five decades ago I was sent on my first assignment to Moscow as a wet-behind-the-ears foreign correspondent for Reuters, and was told in farewell drinks at the pub just how lucky I was. Surely, said my fellow hacks, I would witness the end of Leonid Brezhnev, the evil man in the Kremlin. Well, end-Brezhnev turned out to be mid-Brezhnev as he staggered on and on.<\/p>\n<p>Now the Ukraine war, bungled and brutal, is being treated in the West as the last gasp of Vladimir Putin, the savage denouement of a flailing regime. My bet, though, is that we have reached mid-Putin not end-Putin. And that even when the war is over, Russia is set to get darker and nastier.<\/p>\n<p>The West projects three false assumptions on Kremlin politics. The first is that leaders are held individually and publicly accountable, that the \u201cmistakes\u201d of the Ukraine war will be subject to the Moscow equivalent of the Chilcot Report. Not going to h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en. Nor is there any sign that Putin will lose his appetite for war at home and abroad. The violence underpinning Putin\u2019s system of rule, his geometry of fear, has not been tamed by the invasion. Finally, Putin\u2019s command of the secret police, the courts and the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a> is so comprehensive that it has become remarkably easy to search out scapegoats and dodge blame for his own blunders. He will not be booed out of power.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Vlad_anger_will_linger\"><\/span>Vlad anger will linger<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>However the war in Ukraine ends, Putin\u2019s anger and frustration will linger and will be turned on the Russians themselves. Get ready for the Great Purge of 2022. It won\u2019t be as fierce as Stalin\u2019s in 1937 when 680,000 were executed, 116,000 sent to the gulag, and thousands committed suicide. Everyone knew what to expect when a judge sentenced the victim of a show trial to \u201c10 years without the right to correspond.\u201d It meant the prisoner had no chance of survival. Putin may admire Stalin but even he has to accept that a modern purge has to look slightly different. After all, in 2017 he formally opened a Wall of Sorrow in Moscow to commemorate the 1937 victims of Stalin. And it is impossible to shake off the way that the purges damaged the psyche of Russia and all the post-Soviet societies.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Russia-Ukraine-War-Rubles-Explainer.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Putin\" class=\"wp-image-21724944\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Russia-Ukraine-War-Rubles-Explainer.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=2048 2048w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Russia-Ukraine-War-Rubles-Explainer.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Russia-Ukraine-War-Rubles-Explainer.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Russia-Ukraine-War-Rubles-Explainer.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>The Russian president has replaced at least eight <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>s and signs show this is only the start.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">AP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/20220330_zaa_n230_110.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21724957\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/20220330_zaa_n230_110.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=2048 2048w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/20220330_zaa_n230_110.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/20220330_zaa_n230_110.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/20220330_zaa_n230_110.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>Consequences of shelling of the Retroville shopping mall by Russian missiles in Kyiv, Ukraine. March 30, 2022.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">ZUMAPRESS.com<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>But after Putin\u2019s war comes Putin\u2019s purge and he is already talking the language of the 1930s. The West, he said this month, was trying to spark a popular rebellion in Russia. \u201cBut the Russian people are able to distinguish true patriots from bastards and traitors and we will spit them out.\u201d Russia, he said, should undergo \u201ca self-cleansing of society.\u201d Putin resorts to crude language when under stress with Emmanuel Macron perched nervously on the edge of a Kremlin chair, he compared Ukraine to a rape victim but now it is often muddled up with the thoughts about national purification. There are already forced deportations from Ukrainian cities, threats of military tribunals, instruments of Stalinist power.<\/p>\n<p>Stalin\u2019s purges were about solidifying his hold at a time when some in the Communist Party were losing faith in his leadership, unhappy about the disasters of collectivizing agriculture. The party bigwig Sergei Kirov had been assassinated in 1934 and a secret police investigation appeared to show networks of Stalin opponents. It was a short hop from the late-night knock on the door to the Lubyanka. Putin is also responding to what he sees as internal critics exploiting his poor judgment.<\/p>\n<p>There are striking similarities.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"839\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/AP320429023.jpg?w=839\" alt=\"Joseph Stalin \" class=\"wp-image-21725026\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/AP320429023.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1678 1678w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/AP320429023.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1258 1258w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/AP320429023.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=839 839w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/AP320429023.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=419 419w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/AP320429023.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 839px) 100vw, 839px\"\/><figcaption>Joseph Stalin governed the Soviet Union from 1922 until 1953.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">Associated Press<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Stalin zeroed in on Red Army generals. Putin has replaced at least eight generals and the signs are that he is only just getting going. Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister and once a trusted hunting companion, has largely disappeared from view. Some say he co-planned the latest invasion with senior FSB generals rather than the army top brass, hence the breakdown in logistics, the lack of preparation, the confusion about the real aim of the war. So FSB officers have been placed under house arrest. The securocrats who kept Putin in power are being set up as his scapegoats.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_broad_purge\"><\/span>A broad purge<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Lest the military campaign fuel a national stop-the-war movement, the dissident-in-chief Alexei Navalny\u2019s prison sentence has been bumped up. Independent media are being muzzled. At least 15,000 people have been arrested for criticizing the Ukrainian \u201coperation.\u201d These are not likely to be temporary measures. Rather, they are part of a broader and deeper crackdown. Putin\u2019s purge, like Stalin\u2019s purge, reaches well beyond discontented elites and into the middle class, intellectuals, playwrights, doctors. It hits at the very idea that society could be modernized by personal initiative; it sees civil society as a covert way of sabotaging power.<\/p>\n<p>Little wonder there is an exodus of the young and the smart for Istanbul. They believe Putin has breached an unspoken contract: they would put up with his strict rationing of free speech in return for a comfortable niche where they could operate as tech innovators, earn dollars, find ways of ducking military service. Now, smelling a purge, they prefer to work out of Turkish caf\u00e9s, just as many of Stalin\u2019s critics once set up in Paris.<\/p>\n<p>1937 was a disaster for the Soviet Union but Stalin continued to rule until his death in 1953. It\u2019s unlikely Putin could last another 16 years; he would be 85. But the West has to sort out how it would deal with a never-ending Putin, a dictator on a constant search for winnable small wars and perhaps even one big final go-with-a-bang showdown among the melting floes of the Arctic.<\/p>\n<p><em>Roger Boyes \/ The Times \/ <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> Licensing<\/em>\n                        <\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/03\/30\/dont-bet-on-the-end-of-vladimir-putin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Don\u2019t bet on the end of Vladimir Putin&#8221; Almost five decades ago I was sent on my first assignment to Moscow as a wet-behind-the-ears foreign correspondent for Reuters, and was told in farewell drinks at the pub just how lucky I was. Surely, said my fellow hacks, I would witness the end of Leonid Brezhnev,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":424306,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Putin-Stalin-HP.jpg?quality=75&strip=all&w=1024","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[127317,91513,4975,70868,73234],"class_list":["post-424305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-3-30-22","tag-kremlin","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/424305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=424305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/424305\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/424306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=424305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=424305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=424305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}