{"id":433394,"date":"2022-04-18T11:14:42","date_gmt":"2022-04-18T08:14:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/"},"modified":"2022-04-18T11:14:42","modified_gmt":"2022-04-18T08:14:42","slug":"us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"# US dollar strength mimics 2020 Coronavirus crash \u2014 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3c55a761d5e\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3c55a761d5e\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/#%E2%80%9D_US_dollar_strength_mimics_2020_Coronavirus_crash_%E2%80%94_5_things_to_know_in_Bitcoin_this_week_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; US dollar strength mimics 2020 Coronavirus crash \u2014 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/#Holiday_cheer_costs_Bitcoin_40000\" >Holiday cheer costs Bitcoin $40,000<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/#Macro_has_plenty_of_surprises_up_its_sleeve\" >Macro has plenty of surprises up its sleeve<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/#DXY_faces_%E2%80%9Cdo_or_die%E2%80%9D_decision\" >DXY faces &#8220;do or die&#8221; decision<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/#Exchange_balances_lowest_since_mid-2018\" >Exchange balances lowest since mid-2018<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/us-dollar-strength-mimics-2020-coronavirus-crash-5-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week\/#Crypto_sentiment_diverges_into_%E2%80%9Cextreme_fear%E2%80%9D\" >Crypto sentiment diverges into &#8220;extreme fear&#8221;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_US_dollar_strength_mimics_2020_Coronavirus_crash_%E2%80%94_5_things_to_know_in_Bitcoin_this_week_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; US dollar strength mimics 2020 Coronavirus crash \u2014 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-2a0745c6>Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with all quiet on traditional markets but a storm brewing in crypto.<\/p>\n<p>As the Easter long weekend continues for the United States and much of Europe, traders are keenly eyeing whether Bitcoin can stay stable for four days without professional investor involvement.<\/p>\n<p>So far, the picture has not favored bulls \u2014 since Good Friday, BTC\/USD has been characterized by sideways action punctuated by episodes of sudden volatility to the downside.<\/p>\n<p>That continued overnight into Monday, and now, $40,000 is once again out of reach. What will the atmosphere be like in the coming days?<\/p>\n<p>Cointelegraph takes a look at the potential market mover factors in line to influence Bitcoin price performance this week.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Holiday_cheer_costs_Bitcoin_40000\"><\/span>Holiday cheer costs Bitcoin $40,000<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>It\u2019s a frustrating time for Bitcoin spot traders. Without traditional market guidance, Bitcoin faces four days of \u201cout-of-hours\u201d trading, meaning that liquidity is thinner than normal.<\/p>\n<p>This has a habit of making any sudden price moves ripple out and cause large than normal knock-on effects. <\/p>\n<p>Should buyer support at a specific price be pulled, for example, panic can set in more easily when there are fewer participants \u2014 and less cash \u2014 on hand to mitigate it.<\/p>\n<p>Such a scenario has played out several times over the Easter weekend already. While mostly trading sideways, BTC\/USD saw episodes of sudden downside from which it struggled to recover.<\/p>\n<p>Overnight on Sunday, the market dived over $1,000 in a matter of minutes, including an $800 loss in a single one-minute candle.<\/p>\n<p>With it came the loss of support at $39,000, data from on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators confirms.<\/p>\n<p>On Friday, Material Indicators <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MI_Algos\/status\/1514981349849018374\">noted<\/a> the block of buyer support im<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>tely below spot price, this now absent and potentially opening up the possibility of a much deeper retracement to come, involving Bitcoin\u2019s 200-week moving average (200 WMA).<\/p>\n<p>The 200 WMA currently sits at just above $21,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/?exchange=BINANCE\">TradingView<\/a> shows. The level is highly significant, never being broken by spot price during bear markets and continually rising throughout Bitcoin\u2019s history.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c50, 100 and 200 Weekly MA are key levels,\u201d Material Indicators meanwhile continued in Twitter comments. <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cBull Markets h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en when price is above the 50 WMA. The 100 may give a relief rally, but since 2011 it&#8217;s never held in a downtrend. The 200 WMA has always marked the bottom + it has confluence with the lifetime support channel.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The 100 WMA \u201crelief rally\u201d site is at $35,740 as of Monday.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-04\/7d1187da-811b-49da-b413-537583179dfe.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 100, 200 WMA. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Despite the potentially unreliable holiday price performance, few appeared surprised by the idea that crypto markets en masse are primed for fresh losses.<\/p>\n<p>Popular trader Pierre <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pierre_crypt0\/status\/1514981434720665609\">flagged multiple targets<\/a> hit across altcoins Monday as BTC wobbled, having previously warned that such a downmove would be the \u201cnail in the coffin\u201d for weak tokens.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Macro_has_plenty_of_surprises_up_its_sleeve\"><\/span>Macro has plenty of surprises up its sleeve<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>With Western markets closed until Tuesday, there is little scope for a macro-induced move on crypto.<\/p>\n<p>Asian markets were mostly flat throughout Monday, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng up a modest 0.67% and the Shanghai Composite Index conversely down 0.67% at the time of writing.<\/p>\n<p>Global financial markets, however, are anything but unremarkable this month, as uncharted territory defines the current setup. Surging inflation coupled with rock-bottom interest rates is one such novel feature.<\/p>\n<p>For markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz, the focus was on the international bonds markets, these having wiped $6.4 trillion off their value since hitting all-time highs last year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe biggest bond bubble in 800yrs continues to deflate after rising US inflation data (CPI &amp; PPI) shake up the bond markets. The value of global bonds has dropped by another $400bn this week, bringing total loss from ATH to $6.4tn,\u201d he <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Schuldensuehner\/status\/1515733501747810311\">commented<\/a> alongside a chart.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-04\/4d2a56d6-a784-4e41-83d8-71aa45902eeb.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Global bonds chart. Source: Holger Zschaepitz\/ Twitter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Japan\u2019s central bank balance sheet expansion, which Zschaepitz previously called the greatest monetary policy experiment \u201cin history,\u201d is meanwhile delivering <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Schuldensuehner\/status\/1515602965725257729\">fresh phenomena<\/a> in the form of spiking inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation is a double-edged sword for Bitcoiners, the tide of rising prices and central bank reactions set to put serious pressure on both stocks and risk assets at first. Only later on, various theories argue, will the tide turn in favor of Bitcoin as a store of value.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe contrast between high equity prices and tame commodities on a 10-year basis may point to greater odds of decreases for stocks,\u201d Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone, a proponent of that perspective, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mikemcglone11\/status\/1514553732352126977\">wrote<\/a> in his latest update last week. <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe S&amp;P 500 was up about 280% as of the end of 2021, and our rate-of-change graphic shows the index as a top potential reversion risk vs. the Fed.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"DXY_faces_%E2%80%9Cdo_or_die%E2%80%9D_decision\"><\/span>DXY faces &#8220;do or die&#8221; decision<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>One yardstick for the traditional economy is meanwhile at what could turn out to be a crucial inflection point. <\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), a key measure of dollar strength, is facing a choice between continued upside and a major correction as it lingers at the 100 points threshold.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-04\/41bebdc6-ca6a-41e9-9869-be5ae425f37f.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>DXY 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It was a long time coming \u2014 the last time that DXY was so bullish was in April 2020 at the height of the coronavirus market shock.<\/p>\n<p>DXY has a habit of running in opposition to Bitcoin price, and while that inverse correlation has broken down to some extent in the past year, the odds remain that a major drawdown for USD would be a benefit to BTC.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf we see the DXY roll over again at this trendline be prepared for a strong send,\u201d markets commentator Johal Miles <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JohalMiles\/status\/1515667652865310730\">summarized<\/a> Sunday. <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cNaturally the FED has key importance here, as any change of course will put pressure on the dollar.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>An accompanying chart highlighted the impact of DXY retracements on BTC\/USD since late 2014.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-04\/b30486b2-ea57-41ea-a4a6-033cd2d68ccb.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>DXY vs. BTC\/USD annotated chart. Source: <\/em><em>Johal <\/em><em>Miles<\/em><em>\/ Twitter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On Monday, however, there were no real signs of a reversal, and a brief dip in DXY last week \u2014 which coincided with an equally brief rally in BTC \u2014 was soon mitigated entirely.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMany calling for corrections on DXY but still looking bullish,\u201d popular chartist Jesse Olson <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JesseOlson\/status\/1515910876699631616\">added<\/a> on the day.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Exchange_balances_lowest_since_mid-2018\"><\/span>Exchange balances lowest since mid-2018<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>What are the more bullish signals coming from Bitcoin in the current environment? <\/p>\n<p>Look no further than exchanges for one, as their declining balances point to sustained determination to \u201chodl\u201d BTC.<\/p>\n<p>According to the latest data, not only are buyers continuing to move large tranches of coins off exchanges into cold storage, but those exchanges\u2019 overall BTC balance is now at fresh multi-year lows.<\/p>\n<p>Figures from on-chain analytics firm <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/overview\/btc-exchange-flows\">CyptoQuant<\/a> confirm that the balance of 21 major exchanges was 2.274 million BTC as of Sunday. The last time that the level was so low was in July 2018.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-04\/9d1ed4b4-95bb-4b36-b7b0-05c2504b002f.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin exchange reserves chart. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The impact of such buyer trends has yet to be seen in practice. Despite the available supply declining, a real scramble for BTC has not yet occurred, while sellers have conversely sought to exit at levels approaching $50,000 in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p>The result is a narrow scope of movement for BTC price action as buyers and sellers act in a closely-guarded range. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1514890835548307456\">noted<\/a> the phenomenon playing out last week.<\/p>\n<p>As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, the likely source of the exchange supply sapping is institutional, rather than retail investors.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Crypto_sentiment_diverges_into_%E2%80%9Cextreme_fear%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>Crypto sentiment diverges into &#8220;extreme fear&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Is crypto market sentiment truly indicative of a shock in the making?<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, XRP, LINK, BCH, FIL<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin has been praised as the \u201conly\u201d truly honest market available to investors, and its decline from all-time highs thus foreshadowed this year\u2019s inflationary environment hostile to stocks, commodities and more.<\/p>\n<p>Should that hold true, the current state of the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/alternative.me\/crypto\/fear-and-greed-index\/\">Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index<\/a> may give investors fresh pause for thought.<\/p>\n<p>At 24\/100 as of Monday, the Index is back in its \u201cextreme fear\u201d zone, having more than halved since the start of April.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-04\/bfe13831-a119-4962-bcdb-9b6543ff93b8.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>By contrast, the traditional market <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/markets\/fear-and-greed\">Fear &amp; Greed Index<\/a> is \u201cneutral,\u201d a zone in which it has stayed since exiting the \u201cfear\u201d zone late last month.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-04\/175fe52a-bf96-4149-b0c3-156228e7524b.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Fear &amp; Greed Index (screenshot). Source: CNN<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While equally famous for its fickle nature, crypto market sentiment could nonetheless be a warning for those hoping that the good times will continue regardless.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. 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As the Easter long weekend continues for the United States and much of Europe, traders are keenly eyeing whether&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":433395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDQvZTUzZDU3N2QtNjk2Ni00NjAyLTg1OTQtMzU5NzViYWE4YTNjLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74937,73785,70359],"class_list":["post-433394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-markets","tag-stocks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433394"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433394\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/433395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}