{"id":448683,"date":"2022-05-18T01:27:37","date_gmt":"2022-05-17T22:27:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/"},"modified":"2022-05-18T01:27:37","modified_gmt":"2022-05-17T22:27:37","slug":"why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/","title":{"rendered":"#Why does big tech think AGI will emerge from binary systems?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3cc57b53415\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3cc57b53415\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/#%E2%80%9CWhy_does_big_tech_think_AGI_will_emerge_from_binary_systems%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Why does big tech think AGI will emerge from binary systems?&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/#Greetings_humanoids\" >Greetings humanoids<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/#The_big_idea\" >The big idea<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/#The_big_problem\" >The big problem<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/#The_dang_Turing_Test\" >The dang Turing Test<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/#Opinions_may_vary\" >Opinions may vary<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-does-big-tech-think-agi-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\/#Dont_stop_believing\" >Don\u2019t stop believing<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CWhy_does_big_tech_think_AGI_will_emerge_from_binary_systems%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Why does big tech think AGI will emerge from binary systems?&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div>\n                            It\u2019s time to <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/why-ai-will-not-replace-radiologists-c7736f2c7d80\">stop training radiologists<\/a>. AI can predict where and when crimes will occur. This neural network can tell if you\u2019re gay. There will be a million Tesla robotaxis on the road by the end of 2020.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve all seen the hyperbole. Big tech\u2019s boldest claims make for the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>\u2019s most successful headlines, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> public can\u2019t get enough.<\/p>\n<p>Ask 100 people on the street what they believe AI is capable of, and you\u2019re guaranteed to get a cornucopia of nonsensical ideas.<\/p>\n<div class=\"corona-wrapper neural-cta hs-embed-tnw\">\n<div class=\"neural-cta-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"neural-cta-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/events.tnw\/hardfork-2018\/uploads\/companies\/neural-newsletter_header.gif\"\/><\/div>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/events.tnw\/hardfork-2018\/uploads\/companies\/neural-newsletter_header.gif\"\/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div class=\"neural-cta-input\">\n<h2 class=\"neural-cta-title\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Greetings_humanoids\"><\/span>Greetings humanoids<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"neural-cta-tagline\">Subscribe now for a weekly recap of our favorite AI stories<\/p>\n<p><!--[if lte IE 8]><![endif]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>To be perfectly clear: we definitely need more radiologists. AI can\u2019t predict crimes, anyone who says otherwise is selling something. There\u2019s also no AI that can tell if a human is gay, the premise itself is flawed.<\/p>\n<p>And, finally, there are exactly zero self-driving robotaxis in the world right now \u2014 unless you\u2019re counting <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/05\/17\/argo-ai-robotaxis-ditch-human-safety-drivers-in-miami-and-austin.html\">experimental test vehicles<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s a pretty good chance you believe at least one of those myths are real.<\/p>\n<p>For every sober prognosticator calling for a more moderate view on the future of artificial intelligence, there exists a dozen exuberant \u201cjust around the corner\u201d-ists who believe <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NandoDF\/status\/1525397036325019649\">the secret sauce has already been discovered<\/a>. To them, the only thing holding back the artificial general intelligence industry is scale.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Based on recent papers (Gpt3, Palm, dalle2, Gato, Metaformer) I am forming the opinion that maybe &#8216;Scale is all you need&#8217;, possibly even for general intelligence (?!). Just convert everything to tokens and predict the next token. (1\/n)<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Dimakis (@AlexGDimakis) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexGDimakis\/status\/1526388274348150784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 17, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_big_idea\"><\/span>The big idea<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>What they\u2019re preaching is complex: if you scale a deep learning-based system large enough, feed it enough data, increase the number of parameters it operates with by factors, and create better algorithms, an artificial general intelligence will emerge.<\/p>\n<p>Just like that! A computer capable of human-level intelligence will explode into existence from the flames of AI as a natural byproduct of the clever <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>lication of <i>more power.\u00a0<\/i>Deep learning is the fireplace; compute the bellows.<\/p>\n<p>But we\u2019ve heard that one before, haven\u2019t we? It\u2019s the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Infinite_monkey_theorem\">infinite monkey theorem<\/a>. If you let a monkey bang on a keyboard infinitely, it\u2019s bound to randomly produce all possible texts including, for example, the works of William Shakespeare.<\/p>\n<p>Only, for big tech\u2019s purposes, it\u2019s actually the monetization of the infinite monkey theorem as a business model.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_big_problem\"><\/span>The big problem<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>There\u2019s no governing body to officially declare that a given machine learning model is capable of artificial general intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>You\u2019d be hard-pressed to find a single record of open academic discussion on the subject wherein at least one apparent subject-matter expert doesn\u2019t quibble over its definition.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s say the folks at DeepMind suddenly shout \u201cEureka!\u201d and declare they\u2019ve witnessed the emergence of a general artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>What if the folks at Microsoft call bullshit? Or what if <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ian_Goodfellow\">Ian Goodfellow<\/a> says it\u2019s real, but <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Geoffrey_Hinton\">Geoffrey Hinton<\/a> and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Yann_LeCun\">Yann LeCun<\/a> disagree?<\/p>\n<p>What if President Biden declares the age of AGI to be upon us, but the EU says there\u2019s no evidence to support it?<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s currently no single metric by which any individual or governing body could declare an AGI to have arrived.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_dang_Turing_Test\"><\/span>The dang Turing Test<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Alan Turing is a hero who saved countless lives and a queer icon who suffered a tragic end, but the world would probably be a better place if he\u2019d never suggested that prestidigitation was a sufficient display of intelligence as to merit the label \u201chuman-level.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Turing recommended a test called the \u201cimitation <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a>\u201d in his seminal 1950 paper \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cs.mcgill.ca\/~dprecup\/courses\/AI\/Materials\/turing1950.pdf\">Computer Machinery and Intelligence<\/a>.\u201d Basically, he said that a machine capable of fooling humans into thinking it was one of them should be considered intelligent.<\/p>\n<p>Back in the 1950s, it made sense. The world was a long ways away from natural language processing and computer vision. To a master-programmer, world-class mathematician, and one of history\u2019s greatest code-breakers, the path to what would eventually become the advent of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and large-language models (LLMs) must have seemed like a one-way street to artificial <i>cognition<\/i>.<\/p>\n<p>But Turing and his ilk had no way of predicting just how good computer scientists and engineers would be at their jobs in the future.<\/p>\n<p>Very few people could have foretold, for example, that Tesla could push the boundaries of autonomy as far as it has without creating a general intelligence. Or that DeepMind\u2019s Gato, OpenAI\u2019s DALL-E, or Google\u2019s Duplex would be possible without inventing an AI capable of learning as humans do.<\/p>\n<p>The only thing we can be sure of concerning our quest for general AI, is that we\u2019ve barely scratched the surface of narrow AI\u2019s usefulness.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Opinions_may_vary\"><\/span>Opinions may vary<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>If Turing were still alive, I believe he would be very interested in knowing how humanity has achieved so much with machine learning systems using only narrow AI.<\/p>\n<p>World-renowned AI expert Alex Dimakis recently proposed an update to the Turing test:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I would like to stay away from the &#8216;AGI&#8217; term and talk about human-level intelligence. One clear goal is passing the Turing test, for 10 minute chat. I&#8217;d call this human level intelligence at the short timescale. I think this can happen from scale and existing methods alone.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Dimakis (@AlexGDimakis) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlexGDimakis\/status\/1526413476494815232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 17, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to them, an AI that could convincingly pass the Turing test for 10 minutes with an expert judge should be considered capable of human-level intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>But isn\u2019t that just another way of saying that AGI will magically emerge if we just scale deep learning?<\/p>\n<p>GPT-3 occasionally spits out snippets of text that are so coherent as to seem salient. Can we really be that far away from it being able to maintain the illusion of comprehension for 10, 20, or 30 minutes?<\/p>\n<p>It feels a bit like Dimakis might be putting the goal posts on the 49-yard-line here.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Dont_stop_believing\"><\/span>Don\u2019t stop believing<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>That doesn\u2019t mean we\u2019ll never get there. In fact, there\u2019s no reason to believe DeepMind, OpenAI, or any of the other AGI-is-nigh camps won\u2019t figure out the secret sauce today, tomorrow, or in a more reasonable time frame (such as somewhere around the 2100s).<\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s also little reason to believe that the clever application of mathematics and yes\/no statements will eventually lead to AGI.<\/p>\n<p>Even if we end up building planetary-sized computer systems powered by <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.space.com\/dyson-sphere.html\">Dyson Spheres<\/a>, the idea that scaling is enough (even with coinciding advances in the code\/algorithms) is still just an assumption.<\/p>\n<p>Biological brains <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC5681944\/\">may actually be quantum systems<\/a>. It stands to reason, were this the case, that an artificial entity capable of exhibiting any form of intelligence distinguishable from the prestidigitation of clever programming would struggle to emerge from a classical, binary system.<\/p>\n<p>That might sound like I\u2019m rebuking the played-out battle-cry of \u201cscaling is all you need!\u201d with the equally obnoxious \u201cquantum all the things,\u201d but at least there\u2019s a precedence for the fantasy I\u2019m pushing.<\/p>\n<p>Humans exist, and we\u2019re pretty smart. And we can be 99% certain that our intelligence emerged as the result of quantum effects. Maybe we should look toward the realm of quantum computing for cues when it comes to the development of an artificial intelligence meant to imitate our own.<\/p>\n<p>Or, maybe, AGI won\u2019t \u201cemerge\u201d from anything on its own. It\u2019s possible it\u2019ll actually require some intelligent design.\n                        <\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more like this article, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/technology\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Technology category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/why-does-big-tech-think-human-level-ai-will-emerge-from-binary-systems\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Why does big tech think AGI will emerge from binary systems?&#8221; It\u2019s time to stop training radiologists. AI can predict where and when crimes will occur. This neural network can tell if you\u2019re gay. There will be a million Tesla robotaxis on the road by the end of 2020. We\u2019ve all seen the hyperbole. Big&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":448684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/neural?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2021\/12\/quantumcomputing-1.jpg&signature=4f886edc208776d3450383b5fba65d3a","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-448683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=448683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448683\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/448684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=448683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=448683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=448683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}